POLITICO NIGHTLY: How to spend $2 trillion

By Renuka Rayasam, Caitlin Emma and Michael Grunwald Presented by THIS ISN'T A BAILOUT. OR A STIMULUS — The $2 trillion bipartisan coronavirus legislation that Congress is finalizing this evening is more than twice the size of America's biggest economic stimulus package, President Barack Obama's 2009 Recovery Act. It's also more than twice the size of America's biggest corporate bailout, President George W. Bush's 2008 Wall Street rescue. But even though it's supposed to help the shattered economy and save failing businesses, it's not primarily a stimulus bill or a bailout bill. No, this is a disaster aid bill. And it's nearly 25 times the size of the record-breaking disaster bill Congress passed after the deadly hurricanes of 2017. And this time, the disaster is just starting to unfold. It's as if Congress is sending money to the coast just as the hurricane is reaching the shore, because the levees are already breaking. The most vital piece of the nearly final package provides $150 billion for hospitals and other health entities that could contain the pandemic, which could help avert the need for future 13-digit disaster packages. That's like sending sandbags to help hold back the floodwaters. The CARES Act also finances direct payments to most Americans, along with a major increase in unemployment benefits. That's like rushing emergency aid to flood victims. The last big-ticket item is $850 billion worth of loan programs for distressed businesses, with some strings attached to try to prevent them from laying off workers or ripping off taxpayers. That's like the recovery aid that helps shuttered companies reopen after a storm. The problem, of course, is that this particular storm has just begun to rage. Everyone expects that eventually, Congress will debate a traditional stimulus bill, with Republicans pushing tax cuts, Democrats pushing infrastructure projects, and maybe even a few gadflies raising concerns about the skyrocketing deficit. For now, though, the immediate goal is to help families and businesses survive, not to help the economy revive and thrive. There's no way to stimulate an economy that's still in lockdown. Congress will have to wait for the hurricane to pass before it can start the rebuilding process. How close is this to the finish line? This gargantuan bill won't make it to President Donald Trump's desk without some last-minute political angst: Sen. Bernie Sanders is threatening the bill because it doesn't have enough restrictions on the business bailout and Republicans think the unemployment aid is too generous. Still the bill is expected to pass the Senate tonight. And the House? Speaker Nancy Pelosi had originally hoped to bring the bill up via unanimous consent after Senate passage, a voting method that would not force lawmakers to return to Washington. But she said later today that House leaders were looking at other options, noting that at least some Republicans were on their way to Capitol Hill to object to the legislation when it moves to the House. There's more to come: Congressional leaders already acknowledge the need for a fourth or fifth response. Here's a peek at who's getting what, and why that matters. Caitlin Emma and Jennifer Scholtes have more: BEEFED-UP UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS What they got: People who are unemployed would get an extra $600 per week for up to four months, on top of state unemployment benefits to make up for 100 percent of lost wages. Why it matters: A group of GOP senators threatened today to block a fast-tracked vote on the measure, arguing that some workers would actually get a raise over their actual pay. Unemployment claims are also climbing by the tens of thousands every day in states across the country, and congressional negotiators acknowledge that benefits may need yet another boost through additional relief packages. LOANS TO INDUSTRIES: $500 BILLION What they got: The Treasury Department would divvy up a $500 billion pot of loans to struggling industries like airlines, and even cities and states. Why it matters: Rules added to the bill will order an inspector general and accountability committee to oversee how the money is spent, rather than giving Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin broad power to cut the loan checks. Veterans of the 2008 bank bailout say, however, that the effectiveness of that oversight will only be as strong as the chosen watchdogs and how much power they really have. CHECKS ON THE WAY What they got: All U.S. residents with adjusted gross income up to $75,000 ($150,000 for married couples) would get a $1,200 ($2,400 for couples) "rebate" payment. They are also eligible for an additional $500 per child. The payments would start phasing out for earners above those income thresholds and would not go to single filers earning more than $99,000; head-of-household filers with one child, more than $146,500; and more than $198,000 for joint filers with no children. Why it matters: People who don't pay taxes, such as those with very low incomes, may be hard to reach the way the program is designed. AID TO AIRLINES: $58 BILLION What they got: Airlines would receive $29 billion in grants, and $29 billion in loans and loan guarantees, as well as a reprieve from paying three of their major excise taxes on the price of a ticket, the fuel tax and a cargo tax. That funding comes with strings, though — no stock buybacks, and limits on executive compensation, to start. Half the funds would go toward "the continuation of payment of employee wages, salaries, and benefits" while the other half would go to loans and loan guarantees for passenger airlines, repair stations and ticket agents — subject to conditions. Why it matters: This is the amount that the industry sought. The bill doesn't include some conditions that Democrats wanted, like commitments to cutting emissions. PRIZE FOR RETAINING PAYROLL What they got: Businesses would get a tax credit for keeping idled workers on their payrolls during the coronavirus pandemic, so long as the businesses meet certain criteria. They would get a refund for half of what they spend on wages, up to $5,000 per worker. Why it matters: To qualify, businesses have to prove they took a 50 percent loss compared to the same quarter in years past. And to keep companies from double-dipping on aid under the bill, employers won't be able to get special SBA loans if they opt for the tax credit. THROWING OUT THE PLAYBOOK — One big reason for a delay in the virus response? Turns out the Trump administration ignored a 69-page pandemic playbook with details on how to detect potential outbreaks, secure supplemental funding and when to consider invoking the Defense Production Act — all steps in which the Trump administration lagged behind the timeline laid out in the playbook, Dan Diamond and Nahal Toosi report. Trump administration officials say that they deliberately followed a different plan, but also admitted at times that they were caught off guard by the swift moving pandemic. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly: Coronavirus Special Edition , a nightly intelligence brief from our global newsroom on the impact of the coronavirus on politics and policy, the economy and global health. Reach out: rrayasam@politico.com and @renurayasam.   A message from PhRMA: In these unprecedented times, America's biopharmaceutical companies are coming together to achieve one shared goal: the eradication of COVID-19. We are sharing learnings from clinical trials in real time with governments and other companies to advance the development of additional therapies. Explore our efforts.   Talking to the Experts Trump said Tuesday that the economic slowdown could be more deadly than the virus. How do economists measure the human cost of recessions? "If we lifted all the shelter in place and stay-home guidance, many people would continue to avoid going to stores, restaurants, traveling because those actions would come with a high chance of getting a life-threatening illness. When a large share of the population is either ill or tending to an ill family member, the economy won't be back to normal. So lifting restrictions at a time when there are still rapidly rising cases in the U.S. would likely lead to a higher death rate with little long term economic benefit. The goal is to get the risk of death low enough that it is clear that it's a good idea to go back to doing what we were doing before." — Betsey Stevenson, former chief economist at the Labor Department during the Obama administration, as told to financial services reporter Victoria Guida "[Macroeconomists] use the unemployment rate (and the employment rate) as a proxy for the damage done to individuals and families, but the detailed work is more of a micro question. I can tell you right now though, that every day's delay getting federal assistance to people and small businesses is causing more misery. I think lawmakers are getting the message, but they need to do more." — Ian Shepherson, founder of independent research firm Pantheon Macroeconomic CITY JOBS HIT HARD — The metro areas hardest hit by the coronavirus-related economic downturn have a high concentration of workers in the hospitality, transportation and oil and gas sectors. Patterson Clark explores the impact on cities nationwide. POLITICO Pro DataPoint Nightly Number 7 — California, Florida, Iowa, Louisiana, New York, Texas and Washington are the seven states for which the president has declared "a major disaster exists" because of coronavirus. The declaration opens up federal resources for each state. There's new money for crisis counseling, for example.   THE FDA & AGENCY IQ: The ground below our feet is shifting by the second. And the FDA is at the epicenter of the federal government's response to the COVID-19 pandemic. POLITICO's newest division, AgencyIQ, is providing around-the-clock coverage of the developing public health crisis for regulatory professionals in the biopharmaceutical and in vitro diagnostic (IVD) communities. AgencyIQ's full suite of research and analysis is available in the COVID-19 Resource Center , which addresses important topics ranging from development pathways available to companies bringing new medical products to the public to the impact of FDA's efforts to accelerate the introduction of a vaccine for the novel coronavirus. If you are monitoring this situation at a micro level, check it out here.     2020 Watch COVID MEETS THE CAMPAIGN —The coronavirus pandemic has transformed the way Biden and Sanders are campaigning. Both candidates are vulnerable to the virus themselves and are no longer able to shake hands and kiss babies. Mary Newman looks at what they are doing to connect with voters in this age of isolation, and what restraints this has put on our 2020 reporters trying to cover the remainder of this election.     Around the Nation DISPATCH FROM THE CRISIS EPICENTER — As the epicenter of the pandemic shifts to New York City , so has the focus moved to Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who has been aggressive in his handling of the crisis, our New York health reporter Amanda Eisenberg tells us from the Manhattan apartment where she is holed up. Yet while Cuomo has positioned himself as the comforting anti-Trump, talking about how families can be together on a spiritual level even if they can't be together in person, he's also been a bit too early in declaring victory. Cuomo has credited the state's shelter in place order with stemming the hospitalization rate, but the results of those social distancing efforts won't be known until next week, when people who were out and about two weeks ago may start showing up at hospitals. The reality is that New York hospitals are preparing for a surge of cases without an end in sight just yet. "Maybe next week we will start to see a flattening of the curve — only time will tell," Amanda tells us. Cuomo has also said that the state has the highest per capita testing rates, but the state's effort to implement widespread testing have petered out as it runs low on protective equipment, swabs and other testing supplies. Now the only people being tested are those in hospitals with severe symptoms. And New York has even more hurdles ahead — from overfilled morgues to infected medical workers — issues that will soon hit other states as the virus spreads. BUCKING TRUMP — Even red-state governors normally allied with the president are ignoring his optimistic musings on reopening the country by Easter. Instead they're sticking with the advice of public health experts to keep social distancing measures in place. Jim Justice, the governor of West Virginia, which is overwhelmingly Trump country, ordered residents Monday to stay at home. Republican Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan blasted Trump on Tuesday for sending confusing signals. "You can't put a timeframe on saving people's lives. We're going to make decisions based on the scientists and the facts," said Hogan. An view of Miami from a drone shows an empty, closed beach as the city continues its efforts to prevent the spread of the coronavirus. | Getty Images The Global Fight CANADA CITIZEN CASH PLAN — The Trudeau government will offer Canadian workers affected by coronavirus $1,400 a month for up to four months, starting in April, to help them pay their bills, Maura Forrest reports. The plan is part of a government support package that allows for deferred taxes and provides direct financial support to Canadians, passed by a skeleton House of Commons of 32 MPs at 5:51 a.m. U.K. ANTIBODY TEST BREAKTHROUGH — British researchers are close to releasing finger prick tests that would demonstrate if a person has developed coronavirus antibodies and would therefore be safe to return to work and public activity, Ryan Heath reports. Professor Sharon Peacock of Public Health England's National Infection Service told MPs the kits are in final testing stages in Oxford ahead of possible mass distribution next week. By the end of April 100,000 tests a day could be processed, with Boris Johnson describing the tests as a "total game-changer."   TUNE IN TO POLITICO DISPATCH: Our POLITICO Dispatch podcast takes you behind the scenes at POLITICO, where journalists break news, work sources and pull back the curtain on politics and policy. Fast. Short. Daily. Subscribe and start listening today.     Parting Words But don't drink it! With sales slumping because of tasting-room closures, makers of craft whiskey and other spirits have turned to another hot market: They've started using their stills to make moonshine hand sanitizer, tax editor Toby Eckert reports. Lawmakers are showing their appreciation by including a one-year federal excise tax waiver in the Senate economic stimulus for "any distilled spirits used for or contained in hand sanitizer that is produced and distributed in a manner consistent with guidance issued by the Food and Drug Administration," according to a summary shared by Sen. Chuck Grassley's office.   A message from PhRMA: In these unprecedented times, America's biopharmaceutical companies are coming together to achieve one shared goal: the eradication of COVID-19. The investments we've made have prepared us to act swiftly: · Working to protect our workforce and the communities where we live and work, having employees work from home whenever possible and keeping our salesforces out of hospitals and physicians' offices · Remaining steadfast in our commitment to research and develop new medicines to prevent, treat and cure disease in all its forms, not just COVID-19 We all have unique roles to play and are confident that together we can be successful. And we won't rest until we are. Explore our efforts.   Did someone forward you this email? Sign up here.   Follow us on Twitter Renuka Rayasam @renurayasam   Follow us

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