Donald Trump’s polling numbers have sharply declined since Kamala Harris took over as the Democratic presidential nominee, and he’s failed to make the adjustments necessary to reverse the trend. In this editorial, we’ll explore why Trump’s attacks on Harris are falling flat, why his conservative allies are urging him to shift tactics, and why he seems unable to make that change.
To understand Trump’s current struggles, it’s important to revisit why he was initially leading against Joe Biden. Trump’s advantage over Biden appeared to hinge more on Biden’s perceived weaknesses than on Trump’s strengths. Despite the belief among Democrats that Biden had been a successful president, his low approval ratings reflected widespread concerns about his age, cognitive abilities, and his handling of critical issues like inflation and border security. Trump capitalized on these concerns by presenting himself as a more energetic and sharp alternative. His strategy largely involved criticizing Biden’s economic policies and immigration stance, hoping that voters would nostalgically view his previous four years in office.
This approach worked well for Trump, with polls showing him leading in every swing state and even winning the popular vote in hypothetical matchups against Biden. Betting markets favored Trump as the likely victor. However, when Biden dropped out following his poor debate performance and Kamala Harris entered the race, it became evident that the same playbook wouldn’t work against her.
Kamala Harris's candidacy immediately shifted the dynamics of the race. For many independent voters concerned about the age and competency of the president, Harris emerged as a more appealing option. At twenty years younger than Trump, Harris represents a stark contrast in energy and vitality. Unlike Trump, she doesn’t ramble or dwell on petty grievances, making her a more polished and composed candidate.
Moreover, Trump’s role as the “change candidate” was diminished against Harris. While he could position himself as the alternative to Biden he can’t as effectively do the same against Harris, who, despite being the current Vice President, had never been president like Trump has. The public, already weary of both Trump and Biden, found in Harris the fresh face they were longing for.
Even on the issue of the economy, where Republicans typically have an advantage, Harris has managed to outmaneuver Trump. A recent Financial Times poll shows her with a one-point lead over Trump in handling the economy—a remarkable feat, given the historical trend of Republicans winning on economic issues. This indicates that Harris has effectively distanced herself from the unpopular aspects of Biden’s tenure while maintaining a connection to its successes.
Faced with a new opponent in Harris, Trump needed a new strategy. However, instead of adapting, he reverted to the tactics that had worked for him in 2016, including name-calling and personal attacks. Unfortunately for Trump, these strategies have not resonated with voters in the same way they did eight years ago.
Trump’s attempts to label Harris with derogatory nicknames like “Laffin’ Kamala,” “Crazy Kamala,” and “Comrade Kamala” have fallen flat. These attempts at branding her in a negative light come across as outdated and tired. Furthermore, his deliberate mispronunciation of her name, reminiscent of his earlier racist and xenophobic rhetoric, has not gained traction.
One of Trump’s more troubling lines of attack has been his focus on Harris’s race and gender. Similar to his baseless claims about Barack Obama’s birthplace, Trump has questioned Harris’s racial identity, suggesting she has been deceptive about it. He has also resorted to sexist language, reportedly calling her a “bitch” behind closed doors and using terms like “nasty” to describe her, echoing the insults he hurled at Hillary Clinton in 2016. Additionally, Trump has even stooped to criticizing Harris’s appearance, arguing that he is the “better-looking” candidate.
These personal attacks have not only failed to gain traction but have also drawn criticism from within Trump’s own party. Prominent conservatives like Nikki Haley, Megyn Kelly, and Lindsey Graham have cautioned Trump against this approach, recognizing that it alienates voters and distracts from the real issues of the campaign. However, Trump seems unable or unwilling to change his tactics.
The crux of Trump’s problem lies in his inability to adapt. His reliance on the same playbook that worked in 2016 suggests a lack of understanding of the current political climate. Voters in 2024 are not responding to the same rhetoric and tactics that were effective eight years ago. Furthermore, Trump’s ego prevents him from course-correcting. Admitting that his current strategy is failing would be a tacit acknowledgment that his previous success was more a product of circumstance than his own brilliance.
When asked recently why he continues to attack Harris on personal grounds, Trump stated that he feels “entitled” to do so. This sense of entitlement, coupled with his enjoyment of levying racist and sexist attacks, has blinded him to the reality that these tactics are no longer effective.
Trump’s advisors have urged him to focus on policy, particularly Harris’s voting record in the Senate, which they argue paints her as too liberal and out of touch with mainstream America. However, Trump has been unable to pivot to this strategy. His fearmongering claims about Harris echo those he made about Clinton and Biden, rendering them less impactful. Additionally, Trump’s disinterest in policy specifics makes it difficult for him to engage in substantive critiques.
Trump has also become sidetracked by trivial matters, such as crowd sizes at rallies and television ratings for convention speeches. These distractions indicate that Trump has taken his eye off the ball, focusing on superficial aspects of the campaign rather than the substantive issues that will determine the election’s outcome.
Trump’s inability to adapt to the Democrat’s switcheroo, coupled with his reliance on outdated and ineffective tactics, have contributed to his decline in the polls. As the election approaches, it is becoming increasingly clear that Kamala Harris may be Trump’s kryptonite. However, the even bigger threat to his campaign is his own character flaws. If Trump cannot change his strategy and reverse his polling slide in the coming weeks, he is likely to lose the election to Harris, making her the nation’s 47th president.
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