Tuesday, January 30, 2024

POLITICO Nightly: The crisis within Texas’ border crisis


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BY ANKUSH KHARDORI

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Concertina wire lines the path as members of Congress tour an area near the Texas-Mexico border in Eagle Pass, Texas.

Concertina wire lines the path as members of Congress tour an area near the Texas-Mexico border on Jan. 3, 2024, in Eagle Pass, Texas. | Eric Gay/AP

SUPREME AUTHORITY — A clash over miles of razor wire on the Texas border threatens to dramatically change the relationship between federal and state governments on matters of immigration enforcement.

After the Supreme Court issued a brief, three-sentence order last Monday granting a Justice Department’s request to remove the state-installed wire — designed to keep migrants from crossing into Texas — the rift between state and federal authorities has exploded into public view, marked by statements of defiance from Texas Republican Gov. Greg Abbott and support from many of his GOP gubernatorial colleagues across the country.

The result has been an escalation of the dispute into both a political and potential constitutional crisis with no end in sight.

Abbott argues that Texas has the constitutional right to defend itself from an “invasion” and claims that this authority “is the supreme law of the land and supersedes any federal statutes to the contrary.” He also says that Texas will keep adding wire along the border, notwithstanding the Supreme Court’s ruling.

Republican governors across the country issued a statement in support of Abbott. Former President Donald Trump, who is campaigning in 2024 on the idea that the U.S. has lost control of its borders, lent his vocal support as well.

The roots of the conflict began late last year, after Texas installed concertina wire along nearly 30 miles of land on the U.S. side of the Rio Grande as part of the state’s effort to combat what officials claim is a steady flow of illegal immigration under the Biden administration. Federal agents tasked with patrolling the border disturbed that wire as part of their work, which includes providing assistance to people attempting to cross the border whose lives may be in danger .

Texas then sued in federal court, claiming that federal agents had broken state law by interfering with the wire. In mid-December, the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals sided with Texas and issued an injunction that prohibited federal agents from cutting or moving the wire unless necessary to address a “medical emergency.”

The Justice Department then went directly to the Supreme Court early this year and asked them to reverse — or “vacate” — that injunction. Last Monday, the court issued a brief, three-sentence order granting the Justice Department’s request. The decision was 5-4 , with all three liberals, Chief Justice John Roberts, and Justice Amy Coney Barrett in the majority.

In the ordinary course, that might have put the matter to rest while Texas’s case continues to work its way through the courts on a standard schedule. But that is not what happened.

In recent days, some observers have claimed that Texas is disobeying or defying the Supreme Court’s order, but that is not quite right, at least as a technical matter. The court’s order merely allows the federal government to cut or move Texas’ wire. For better or worse, it does not explicitly direct Texas to stop installing the wire or to do anything else.

On the legal side of this issue, Abbott’s position — that he has the unilateral right to disregard federal law and policy because he decided that there is an “invasion” at the border — is highly dubious, if not clearly wrong, under the current state of the law .

That is because the Supreme Court has repeatedly and consistently held that immigration policy and enforcement are matters that should be entrusted largely (if not entirely) to the federal government . There is also no meaningful legal authority to support Abbott’s claim that he has the power to supersede federal law because he believes that there is an “invasion” at the border.

We are, however, in a period of constitutional instability and change, thanks in large part to the Trump-era overhaul of the federal judiciary and the conservative super-majority of justices installed by Trump. After all, there used to be a constitutional right to abortion in this country. Affirmative action in higher education used to be legal.

Neither of those things is true anymore, and it is not difficult to envision a similarly dramatic change in the law in this area if — or when — the Supreme Court gets its hands on a case that squarely presents the issue.

Then there are the political stakes. Those are comparatively easy to identify and, perhaps, help to explain the legal posturing of Abbott, Trump and their allies. And polling suggests that immigration and border enforcement are bad issues for Biden and the Democrats that could hamper the president and his party’s reelection efforts.

That means for Republicans like Abbott there is both a short game and a long game here. The short game is political — to shape the public’s perceptions about the situation at the border in the run-up to the 2024 election. The long game is legal — to fundamentally alter the constitutional relationship between the federal government and the states on a signature policy issue for Republicans — and it is just as important as what happens between now and November.

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at ankush.khardori@gmail.com .

 

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WHAT'D I MISS?

— New U.S.-made longer-range bomb expected to arrive as soon as Wednesday in Ukraine: The Pentagon has successfully tested a new long-range precision bomb for Ukraine that is expected to arrive on the battlefield as soon as Wednesday , according to two U.S. officials and two other people with knowledge of the talks. Ukraine will receive its first batch of Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bombs, a brand new long-range weapon made by Boeing that even the U.S. doesn’t have in its inventory, according to the four people, all of whom were granted anonymity to discuss matters ahead of an announcement.

— Biden says U.S. knows how it will respond to Jordan attack: President Joe Biden said today that he’s decided how the U.S. will retaliate after a drone strike in Jordan killed three American soldiers. Biden did not detail how the administration plans to respond, or when those actions would be taken. But, during a brief back-and-forth with reporters outside the White House, he said he’s not seeking a war with Iran, even though he held the nation somewhat responsible for the attack.

— House GOP infighting threatens to derail vote on bipartisan tax package: Speaker Mike Johnson‘s plans to get a bipartisan tax deal through the House this week are teetering on the verge of collapse after an unlikely coalition of House Republicans aired last-minute concerns during a private GOP meeting on Tuesday. According to members who attended the meeting, Republican leaders are staring down a messy litany of complaints from both incumbents in vulnerable districts demanding state and local tax relief and conservative Freedom Caucus members who are intent on bringing border politics into the tax debate.

REPUBLICANS oppose teaching SEX EDUCATION
REPUBLICANS promote ABSTINENCE ONLY
REPUBLICANS oppose funding PUBLIC HEALTH

REPUBLICANS jeopardize ALL Americans

— Syphilis cases spike as budget cuts threaten efforts to contain outbreaks: Syphilis rates jumped more than 17 percent over last year’s record-setting rate to reach the highest level since the 1950s — a dangerous trend that could worsen if Congress allows scheduled budget cuts to disease trackers to take effect this year. New data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released today shows a steep escalation of a years-long national increase in syphilis and other sexually transmitted infections as local health departments work to recover from their battle against Covid-19 and Mpox.

 

JOIN 1/31 FOR A TALK ON THE RACE TO SOLVE ALZHEIMER’S: Breakthrough drugs and treatments are giving new hope for slowing neurodegenerative diseases like Alzheimer’s disease and ALS. But if that progress slows, the societal and economic cost to the U.S. could be high. Join POLITICO, alongside lawmakers, official and experts, on Jan. 31 to discuss a path forward for better collaboration among health systems, industry and government. REGISTER HERE .

 
 
NIGHTLY ROAD TO 2024

MICHIGAN BOUND — President Joe Biden traveled to Michigan today as he tries to rally support among voters in a battleground state viewed as central to his reelection chances, reports POLITICO.

The trip would be his first to Michigan this year. It would aim to capitalize on Biden’s momentum among the state’s blue-collar workers, after winning a full-throated endorsement from the United Auto Workers just six days ago. The White House has yet to make a final decision, and the people familiar with the matter cautioned that planning was still ongoing and the trip could still be scrapped.

DEAD LETTER — The Republican National Committee is meeting behind closed doors this week as some allies of Donald Trump had hoped to put the group’s stamp on the former president early in the 2024 GOP presidential nominating campaign, reports the Associated Press.

But a proposed resolution to declare Trump the presumptive nominee has been removed from the agenda before the committee is scheduled to meet in Las Vegas this week, party officials said. The reversal comes as the first two early-state contests have winnowed the Republican campaign down to two major candidates, with Trump as the heavy favorite and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley vowing to continue her uphill challenge.

THE DAILY 14TH AMENDMENT — Illinois’ election board on Tuesday kept former President Donald Trump on the state’s primary ballot , a week before the U.S. Supreme Court hears arguments on whether the Republican’s role in the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol disqualifies him from the presidency, reports the Associated Press.

The board’s unanimous ruling comes after its hearing officer, a retired judge and Republican, found that a “preponderance of the evidence” shows Trump is ineligible to run for president because he violated a constitutional ban on those who “engaged in insurrection” from holding office. But the hearing officer recommended the board let the courts make the ultimate decision. The eight-member board, composed of four Democrats and four Republicans, agreed with a recommendation from its lawyer to let Trump remain on the ballot by determining it didn’t have the authority to determine whether he violated the U.S Constitution.

 

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AROUND THE WORLD

An Israeli army tank rolls in southern Israel along the border with the Gaza Strip.

An Israeli army tank rolls in southern Israel along the border with the Gaza Strip on Jan. 24, 2024. | Jack Guez/AFP via Getty Images

PIVOT BACK — In the hours following Hamas’ Oct. 7 assault on Israel, American officials rushed to determine if terrorist groups planned to attack troops and diplomats abroad. They immediately struggled.

The U.S. had spent years pulling back intelligence and military resources from the Middle East and shifting focus elsewhere, believing Russia and China posed greater threats. That shift is now being felt more acutely than ever , reports POLITICO.

Analysts whose work had been focused on other regions were forced to quickly switch to Hamas and the Middle East. As they did, they strained to sift through and make sense of hundreds of reports of potential threats posed by a wide variety of groups, including those backed by Iran.

That effort, and the uncertainty that followed, has forced a reckoning in the highest ranks of the Biden administration’s national security establishment about its Middle East strategy.

Now, amid intense bombardment from Iran-backed groups, more than a dozen current and former U.S. officials, lawmakers and congressional aides say Washington’s deprioritization of the Middle East, and specifically its approach on Iran, has left the U.S. vulnerable.

 

YOUR GUIDE TO EMPIRE STATE POLITICS : From the newsroom that doesn’t sleep, POLITICO's New York Playbook is the ultimate guide for power players navigating the intricate landscape of Empire State politics. Stay ahead of the curve with the latest and most important stories from Albany, New York City and around the state, with in-depth, original reporting to stay ahead of policy trends and political developments. Subscribe now to keep up with the daily hustle and bustle of NY politics. 

 
 
NIGHTLY NUMBER

$50,000

The amount that Oklahoma is now asking some teachers to return to the state , after it sent bonuses in error. The repayment demands have the state drawing sharp criticism from Democratic and Republican lawmakers; average pay for teachers in Oklahoma is $54,800 per year, which ranks 38th in the country.

RADAR SWEEP

OVER THE HEDGE — If all the hedges in England were lined up end to end, they would stretch ten times around the Earth. That’s according to a new map of the historic hedges in England created by laser scanning. The map contains some of the most comprehensive hedge data to date and reveals a total of 390,000 km of hedges, with most in the South West of England. Ecologists are now hoping the new data will lead to more protections of the trees and shrubs that make up England’s hedges and are critical for wildlife in the region. Helen Briggs illustrates what this data shows about England’s extensive hedge landscapes for BBC.

PARTING IMAGE

On this date in 1972: British soldiers shot 26 unarmed civilians and killed 14 during a civil rights protest in the Bogside district of Londonderry, Northern Ireland. The incident, which came to be known as Bloody Sunday, sparked widespread protest and further Irish nationalist hostility towards the British Army. Pictured here is a building burning in the Bogside in the aftermath of the event.

On this date in 1972: British soldiers shot 26 unarmed civilians and killed 14 during a civil rights protest in the Bogside district of Londonderry, Northern Ireland. The incident, which came to be known as Bloody Sunday, sparked widespread protest and further Irish nationalist hostility towards the British Army. Pictured here is a building burning in the Bogside in the aftermath of the event. | Michel Laurent/AP

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