| | |  | BY RYAN LIZZA AND RENUKA RAYASAM | With help from Myah Ward IS IT OVER? Here is what everyone in Washington is thinking but does not want to say out loud: President Donald Trump is going to lose this election in 28 days, probably by a large margin. A growing number of insiders, including many Republicans, are starting to venture — privately — that this outcome is likely to be clear on Election Night, not days or weeks later. And Trump’s collapse is likely to take Republican control of the Senate with him. Is this a certainty? No. We all remember 2016. But the system is blinking red: — Biden leads nationally by 9 points in the Real Clear Politics average and has passed the critical 50 percent threshold. Some recent national polls have been eye-popping: 14 points in the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll and 16 points in the latest CNN poll. — Biden’s lead has been growing since the first debate, an event Republicans pointed to as the key event where Trump might turn things around. — The crucial states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, which was one of the few good polling states for Trump, have all been trending clearly toward Biden. — All of the polls behind this assessment were completed before today, when the president abruptly abandoned negotiations on a Covid relief bill, which could have provided an economic lifeline to millions of Americans. This is the conventional wisdom, though it is rarely said publicly. It’s been expressed by a number of glum Republicans we’ve talked to since the debate and the subsequent news of the White House becoming a Covid hot spot. “Today feels like the election’s over,” a veteran Republican strategist said Sunday. But again, we all remember 2016. So there is a quiet conspiracy to emphasize the uncertainty and stress to readers and viewers that anything could still happen. Here’s where the protocols of journalism require a meaty paragraph of qualifiers and caveats known in the business as the “to be sure graf.” In the event of a Trump victory I can point to the following as evidence that you were warned this thesis might be wrong: — The popular vote could be disguising another Trump path to an Electoral College victory. The national polls in 2016 were not that far off. Biden could perhaps win nationally by an even larger margin than Hillary Clinton did and still not get to 270 electoral votes. — Republicans insist there is a massive “shy Trump” vote that doesn’t register in the polls but will spring to life in the privacy of the ballot. — There are a series of unprecedented events gripping the country — the pandemic, the recession, nationwide protests — and so historical models from normal election years don’t serve as much of a guide. — Polling might be spectacularly wrong for one or more of these reasons. Steve Shepard, POLITICO’s senior elections editor and resident polling expert, notes that the recent spate of double-digit national polls showing big Biden leads may be the result of depressed Republicans refusing to answer the phone after the first debate. Bill McInturff, the Republican half of the bipartisan polling duo who conducts the NBC/WSJ poll, said that drop in response rate may mean Biden’s lead is more like 8 or 9 points, Steve points out. Steve adds: “I compare it to how people feel after their favorite sports team loses a big game. They don’t really want to talk about it. So there’s an argument here that polling is catching Trump at a low point, but he’s still in awful shape.” Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Cheers to Jake Sherman and Anna Palmer for a fantastic run at POLITICO Playbook. Reach out rrayasam@politico.com or on Twitter at @renurayasam.
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| | HAPPENING WEDNESDAY - A WOMEN RULE ROUNDTABLE ON THE VP DEBATE : In the wake of a contentious and highly criticized first debate, the attention turns to Vice President Mike Pence and Senator Kamala Harris who are set to square off on Oct. 7. Join Women Rule editorial director Anna Palmer for a virtual roundtable discussion with Maya Harris, Christine Pelosi and Jennifer Palmieri on how Sen. Kamala Harris has prepared for the big night and whether the VP debate will revert to political norms. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | A NOTE FROM THE BOSS — Editor-in-chief Matt Kaminski emails us, and — more important — you, our readers: A few days before POLITICO’s Washington offices and much of America locked down in March, we launched the “Coronavirus Special Edition” newsletter you have on your screen. Nightly was built to be a place for POLITICO journalists and readers to gather — at safe distance, naturally — and find answers to hard questions, clarity at a time of confusion and original news about the historic pandemic. We assumed Nightly’s focus would be mostly limited to health care. Fate had different ideas. This crisis has touched every aspect of national life, from education to the economy and not least our politics, and this newsletter has followed. Thanks to your support and feedback, Nightly built a loyal, large audience and found a unique mission. We know that your own interests range broadly, and hope that you appreciate sharp, deep and sophisticated coverage of other issues in the Nightly style. Starting with this edition, we’ll formally dispense with the “Special Edition” sub-headline. Each evening, Nightly will focus on the political or policy story of the moment and dig behind the headlines to provide (if we do our job right) insights and reporting you can’t find somewhere else. Nightly is tomorrow’s conversation, tonight. Distilled and decluttered. For a long while to come, we expect the pandemic will dominate the national and Nightly conversation. Our commitment to deep reporting of that story remains unchanged. But we’ll also draw on POLITICO’s global newsroom to illuminate other issues in this space, as the moment demands. As always, please share your thoughts and suggestions. They’re invaluable.
| | HOW PENCE WILL PLAY IT — Vice President Mike Pence is entering his first and only debate against Sen. Kamala Harris with an unusual but fitting task: To clean up everything his boss said on the debate stage last week. With his serene grin, gentle charm and unrivaled ability to soften Trump’s words, Pence is seen by many White House allies as the Trump campaign’s last hope for a desperately needed reset following a streak of missteps by the man at the top of the ticket — beginning with Trump’s erratic performance during his debate against Biden and ending with his determination to leave the hospital Monday still in the throes of a serious Covid-19 infection, White House reporter Gabby Orr writes. “Ahead of the events of the last seven days, I thought the vice presidential debate would be an important opportunity for the Trump campaign. Now it’s a matter of survival,” said Republican strategist Rob Stutzman.
| | JOINT CHIEFS IN QUARANTINE — The nation’s top military leaders, including Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley, are self-quarantining after coming into contact last week with the Coast Guard’s No. 2 officer, who tested positive for Covid-19 on Monday, according to administration officials. Senior military leaders who attended several meetings at the Pentagon last week with Adm. Charles Ray, the vice commandant of the Coast Guard, tested negative for Covid-19 today but is self-quarantining as a precaution, a defense official said. Officials believe that a Friday meeting in the “tank” — the Pentagon’s secure conference room for senior military leaders — is where the virus could have spread to others, a second defense official said. Pentagon officials are conducting additional contact tracing and taking other precautions “to protect the force and the mission,” said Pentagon spokesperson Jonathan Hoffman. “Out of an abundance of caution, all potential close contacts from these meetings are self-quarantining and have been tested this morning,” Hoffman said this afternoon. “No Pentagon contacts have exhibited symptoms, and we have no additional positive tests to report at this time.”
| | LATEST POSITIVE: MILLER — Stephen Miller, a top Trump aide, tested positive for Covid-19 today, according to a person familiar with the matter. Miller, a senior adviser to the president with a wide-ranging portfolio in the White House, joins Trump’s wife, press secretary, campaign manager, party chair, counselor and numerous other staffers who have tested positive for coronavirus. WFH AT WH — Trump is back at the White House, working from his sealed-off second floor residence with downsized staff and new infection protocols. Nightly chatted over Slack with White House reporter Meridith McGraw about the mood at the White House. This conversation has been edited. What’s the White House like right now? Right now, it’s a ghost town. The White House West Wing is a small space — much smaller than people realize — and staff and guests flow in and out of their offices at a steady stream all day. That isn’t the case right now as so many staffers are working from home because they have been forced to quarantine or are taking precautions. Still, some senior staff like Mark Meadows, the chief of staff, Dan Scavino and Jared Kushner were all at the White House today. Ivanka Trump, however, stayed at home. The major change would be that people inside the West Wing are wearing masks. I’ve been at the White House and have traveled with the pool throughout this pandemic, and it would be rare to see political appointees and aides in the White House wear a mask. I think at times there has been a false sense of security among some of the staff since they are tested regularly and so are their colleagues. Are there plans underway for if the president’s condition worsens, or is that a taboo topic? That’s a good question, and something I’ve asked aides about. I was told that the potential for the president’s health to worsen is always there (and we all hope the president is on the mend), but the physicians felt he could return to the White House. Are you nervous about going to the White House tomorrow as the print pool reporter? No. I feel like if you follow protocols (wear masks, keep a distance, etc.) you should be OK. And that’s exactly what the White House didn’t do.
| | HOW TO DEBATE SAFELY — Pence and Harris will debate Wednesday night, 13 feet apart instead of the original 7 feet. And possibly with plexiglass dividers on stage for the candidates and the moderator. With three debates left — Trump has already signaled that he’s participating in next week’s debate in Miami, though it will be less than two weeks since he contracted the virus — Nightly’s Myah Ward asked Abraar Karan , a physician at Harvard Medical School and Brigham and Women’s Hospital, how to design a safe, in-person debate. This response has been edited. “Both candidates need to be tested daily leading up to the debate — this is because false negatives early in the disease course are more likely while the virus is still incubating. I would say the same for the moderator as well. If any of the participants has had a recent Covid-19 exposure and is supposed to be quarantining as per CDC guidelines, then they should not be doing this in person at all. Given Pence’s close contact with President Trump, he should be quarantining right now. “Additionally, everyone aside from perhaps the debaters and the moderator should definitely be wearing masks. “In terms of the debate stage, in addition to having candidates more than six feet apart, I would ensure there is good ventilation in the building (many open windows, air filtration protocols), or considering doing it in a venue that is outdoors. “I would ensure that anyone who is in the audience has also been tested, and to keep the number of audience members to the minimum deemed necessary (close family, important staff members). “Also, I am reading now about the use of plexiglass between the two candidates. I’m not sure what the height of that glass is, but aerosols travel and linger in the air. A piece of glass may help to block some droplets and other respiratory particles, but that alone is not a guarantee for smaller particles that are floating in the air. In conjunction with all other safety measures, though, I think the chance of viral transmission would be quite low, especially if they have both tested negative.”
| | Nightly asks you: What book, movie or TV show best captures your 2020 experience? Use our form and send us your answer, and we’ll feature select responses in our Friday edition.
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A member of the White House cleaning staff sanitizes the James S. Brady Press Briefing Room. | Getty Images | | | GOING WITH THE HERD — The Trump administration’s health chief met Monday with a trio of scientists who back the controversial theory that the United States can quickly and safely achieve widespread immunity to the coronavirus by allowing it to spread unfettered among healthy people, health care reporters Sarah Owermohle and David Lim write. The meeting with HHS Secretary Alex Azar, which also included Trump adviser Scott Atlas, is the latest example of administration officials — including the president himself — seeking out scientists whose contrarian views justify the government’s handling of a pandemic that has killed 210,000 people and infected more than 1 million so far in the U.S. “We heard strong reinforcement of the Trump administration’s strategy of aggressively protecting the vulnerable while opening schools and the workplace,” Azar tweeted after his meeting with Harvard medical professor Martin Kulldorff, Stanford medical professor Jay Bhattacharya and Oxford epidemiologist Sunetra Gupta. Mainstream medical and public health experts say that seeking widespread, or herd, immunity in the manner the scientists prescribe could result in the deaths of hundreds of thousands or even millions more U.S. residents. BRIGHT GOES DARK — Rick Bright, the federal vaccine chief-turned-whistleblower who was reassigned to a different agency and subsequently criticized the Trump administration’s pandemic response, has left the federal government, Bright’s lawyers announced today. “Dr. Bright was forced to leave his position at NIH because he can no longer sit idly by and work for an administration that ignores scientific expertise, overrules public health guidance and disrespects career scientists, resulting the [sic.] in the sickness and death of hundreds of thousands of Americans,” lawyers Debra Katz and Lisa Banks said in a statement. Bright was abruptly removed as director of the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority in April and reassigned to NIH, and he alleges that he was demoted because he opposed political pressure linked to an unproven Covid-19 treatment, health care reporter Dan Diamond writes. In his updated filing with the Office of Special Counsel, Bright said that he was assigned “no meaningful work” at NIH since Sept. 4, further alleging that NIH Director Francis Collins “declined to support” his recommendations about coronavirus testing “because of political considerations.”
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| | | DEMS AWAIT DISARRAY — As Election Day nears, Democrats are scrambling to counter disinformation campaigns, complicated absentee ballot requirements and consolidated polling locations. All of which they say threaten the groups Joe Biden can’t win without in November: Black and Latino voters, Maya King writes. Democrats are encouraging voters to cast their mail-in ballots as soon as possible and be mindful of voter registration deadlines in their respective states. In the wake of Trump’s attacks on the U.S. Postal Service, they’ve shifted tactics, incorporating early and in-person options to their voter guidance. According to findings from a data leak first reported by the British Channel 4 news, in 2016, the Trump campaign targeted 3.5 million Black voters in a widespread, data-based form of voter suppression. And now voting rights advocates are girding for a repeat. It’s one reason why liberals are worried that, despite national polls showing the Democratic nominee ahead of Trump, voter suppression tactics could undermine his lead in battleground states.
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