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NIGHTLY WUERKER — POLITICO's Pulitzer Prize-winning editorial cartoonist Matt Wuerker talks — while drawing — about his inspirations (including "Survivor" tribal councils and "The Flintstones") in the opening episode of his new video show, Punchlines.
ENDGAME — So what happens after we kick the virus?
Nobody really knows, but companies and governments are placing giant bets on what our post-Covid future will look like. It could look like anything from a fascism-friendly world dominated by China to a glorious resurgence led by America and Europe, according to a new report due out Thursday and previewed by POLITICO. The authors, former intelligence official Mat Burrows and Peter Engelke of the Atlantic Council, lay out three scenarios — from worst to best. And they are some doozies:
SCENARIO 1: THE GREAT DECELERATION — Everyone loses. "The United States, Europe and China all struggle to recover despite major fiscal and monetary efforts. The recovery stretches well into the 2020s, aggravated by the fact that it takes much longer for a vaccine to be developed than hoped for." The West flails as President Donald Trump wins reelection and the EU becomes paralyzed. Inside China, discontent grows as Communist Party leaders struggle to revive the economy. Yikes: "By the mid-2020s, deglobalization is speeding up, yielding slow economic growth everywhere. Poverty levels are rising in the developing world and there is the potential for open conflict between the United States and a China-Russia alliance."
SCENARIO 2: CHINA FIRST — Beijing wins. China capitalizes on the crisis to build ties across Asia, undermine democracy worldwide and ruthlessly suppress dissent at home. In the U.S., the country lurches leftward even as Trump wins reelection — leading him to enact Sen. Elizabeth Warren's wealth tax during his second term. Food riots break out across the Middle East and North Africa, while collapsing oil prices force Saudi Arabia into the Chinese orbit.
SCENARIO 3: NEW RENAISSANCE — The rosiest option imagines a "V-shaped recovery" and a reinvigoration of U.S. global leadership. Wealthy countries band together to vaccinate everyone around the world, free of charge. Under pressure, China closes its wild animal markets, and Western countries propose a "superagency" to prevent the next worldwide crisis. China and the U.S. set aside many of their differences and get to work on a "Marshall Plan" for developing countries ravaged by the disease.
In any scenario, things could go badly wrong. The virus could wallop poor countries that have yet to be hit hard, like Pakistan. Social distancing measures could remain in place longer than anyone expects, meaning "the recovery will be difficult and extended, causing substantial damage to the social and political fabric in many regions." In the U.S., "there is a growing risk that the middle class will suffer another drop in its standard of living."
The health and economic catastrophe could morph into a crisis for America's claim to global leadership if the U.S. recovers slowly and "if authoritarian powers, particularly China, more effectively weather the storm." And there's a baleful feedback loop at work here, the authors warn: "The coronavirus pandemic may end up reinforcing Chinese President Xi Jinping and the Communist Party of China's authoritarian tendencies on the one hand, and an 'America First' reaction on the other."
Their most depressing warning? This thing might NEVER go away. "We must be prepared for the coronavirus to become a 'recurring fact of life,' like the ordinary flu," they write. "But much deadlier."
Welcome to POLITICO Nightly: Coronavirus Special Edition, a nightly intelligence brief from our global newsroom on the effect of the coronavirus on politics and policy, the economy and global health. Your host was riveted by this account of a Texas woman who had to wash her own hair for the first time in decades because her hair salon is closed. Reach out with tips: rrayasam@politico.com or on Twitter at @renurayasam.
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A message from PhRMA:
In these unprecedented times, America's biopharmaceutical companies are coming together to achieve one shared goal: beating COVID-19. We are sharing learnings from clinical trials in real time with governments and other companies to advance the development of additional therapies. Explore our efforts. |
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DÉJÀ VU — The lack of testing continues to plague the country's pandemic response, health care reporters David Lim and Brianna Ehley write. Trump said doubling testing capacity will be the key to lifting lockdowns, but conducting 2 million tests per week — up from 1 million now — is going to be extremely complicated. In addition to solving complex global supply chain problems, it will likely require large purchases of high-speed lab equipment and greater national coordination. And health experts outside the government say that the true testing need is even greater. They predict it will take 4 million to 30 million tests per week to begin reopening the country, and keep it open, until a vaccine becomes available — which could take months or even years.
Body count — First a key model predicted 100,000 deaths. Then it was 60,000. Now it's back to 65,000. What gives? A model from University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation has come under intense scrutiny from public health researchers who say it downplays the virus threat by offering too rosy a death toll projection and offers too much volatility to be useful to policy makers.
The model's volatility is a strength, Ali Mokdad , a University of Washington researcher, told your host today. The projections change as more data gets fed into IHME's model. Early on, the model used data from China, South Korea and Italy. Now it's relying more on U.S. data. "This is a moving target and we are chasing it as best we can," Mokdad said.
But disease modelers and epideomologists, including Harvard's Marc Lipsitch , say that even with the addition of new U.S. data, the model leans too heavily on the experience of other countries where social distancing measures are more aggressive. Governors are relying on the group's new modeling to determine when to reopen their states, and critics worry that states following the model will move too quickly to reopen schools and businesses.
Mokdad is acutely aware of the high stakes. He says he's received hate mail and death threats from people who say his group killed the economy. He told me one of his best friends in Atlanta had to shut down a recently opened restaurant and might go bankrupt. Right now, he said, he and his group are in daily contact with White House and state scientists. And he's prepared for even more blowback.
"We live in a divided country," he said. "You keep your head up and do the right thing and move on."
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A police officer stands outside of a firehouse in Chicago near a funeral home where a service was being held for firefighter Edward Singleton, who died of complications from Covid-19. | Scott Olson/Getty Images
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LIVE TOMORROW - HOW GOV. LARRY HOGAN SECURED 500,000 TESTING KITS FOR MARYLAND: Join Playbook co-authors Anna Palmer and Jake Sherman tomorrow at 9 a.m. EDT for a virtual discussion with Gov. Larry Hogan (R-Md.), who has been on the front lines of this crisis since it began. Hogan will detail the behind-the-scenes efforts that secured 500,000 coronavirus testing kits, what it will take to reopen the state's economy and how governors are trying to collaborate with the White House on the pandemic response. Have questions? They'll answer as many as they can. REGISTER HERE TO PARTICIPATE.
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NEW KOCH — The libertarian-leaning Koch political network, founded by brothers Charles and David, is explicitly rejecting the in-person protests that call on states to lift Covid lockdowns. The Koch network is saying people need to maintain a safe distance at home, Maggie Severns reports. The move reflects a dramatic shift in tactics for Koch officials, who say the combative approach they adopted during the Obama administration didn't work out like they hoped: Populist priorities like curbing immigration supplanted the small-government message of the Kochs.
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RELOADING — Americans bought record numbers of guns in March — 2.5 million firearms, an 85 percent increase over March 2019, executive health editor Joanne Kenen writes. Three out of five of those firearms were handguns. Public health experts fear the brew of weapons, isolation and economic stress could be lethal in a nation that already has high suicide rates.
An essay in the Annals of Internal Medicine today, by three physicians affiliated with Boston Children's Hospital and Harvard Medical School, pointed out that just having a handgun in the house is a risk factor for suicide. "Persons who purchase handguns have a 22-fold higher rate of firearm-related suicide within the first year than those who did not purchase a handgun," they wrote. The heightened risk isn't just for the person who bought the gun. It applies to everyone in the household — and "persists for years."
That risk isn't new. But what is new is "the economic and social tsunami" from the pandemic, which the authors warn could mix with the millions of guns to "unleash a wave of suicide."
The USDA's Food Safety and Inspection Service hasn't been able to procure enough face masks for all roughly 8,000 of its inspectors, and in early April said it would provide a one-time $50 reimbursement for inspectors who procure their own. The lack of safety gear is sparking an outcry among unions representing both inspectors and plant workers. One inspector based in New York City died from coronavirus in March after visiting plants while potentially infected.
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YANG HANG — The pandemic has turned former Democratic presidential candidate Andrew Yang's signature policy proposal of handing out cash to people from a punch line to a short-term reality. Checks from Congress' $2 trillion economic stimulus package started landing in people's bank accounts last week. Your host spoke with Yang about his ideas going mainstream, and how he's trying to help during the pandemic. This interview has been edited for clarity.
Your campaign focused on trying to replace jobs that are lost from automation — do you think the jobs lost in the last few weeks will come back?
Many of these millions of jobs we're losing are gone for good. They are not going to come back like a rubber band snapping back into place. Many businesses are taking this period as a time to streamline and automate and reduce their workforces. We should accept that there is no going back to normal.
What role should technology play in the response?
One of the biggest bottlenecks could be Congress and its inability to pass legislation remotely. Both parties have resisted doing something that most Americans view as just common sense. Of course you should be able to pass laws remotely, given that you might not be able to travel back to the Capitol or that it might not be safe for you to convene in the same room.
What did you make ofTrump's call to halt immigration?
Imagining that somehow foreclosing immigration is going to assist in forestalling a virus that hundreds of thousands of Americans are infected with doesn't seem to make that much sense. Cutting off travel from certain areas that have high levels of infection makes sense. But it doesn't seem like it would be one of your main priorities, even if there are potential, legitimate problems with letting people in the country if we don't have the necessary testing infrastructure in place.
How are you spending your days?
Project 100 is a major philanthropic effort to give 100,000 Americans $1,000 each in the next 100 days. This is something that is putting our trust in people to be able to take care of themselves and their families, and give them a better chance of adhering to public health guidance because they're not going to be as concerned about putting groceries on the table or the roof over the head.
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THE CORONA CLIMATE — In just two months, the coronavirus has produced radical environmental changes that the Earth Day movement has dreamed about for 50 years, Michael Grunwald writes.
Covid-19 has dragged us out of our cars, cleared the air over smog-choked cities like Los Angeles, and discombobulated the oil industry so dramatically that traders are paying to give away crude. Sea turtles are returning to beaches without humans; fisheries are recovering in waters without trawlers; airline emissions are plunging in skies without airplanes. Longtime eco-fantasies — a telecommuting workforce, urban streets turned over to cyclists and pedestrians — are suddenly realities.
Obviously, the tragic pandemic that created all this change was not desirable. The question is if any of this change will be sustainable after the pandemic — and whether there could be other long-term consequences that might not be so eco-friendly.
The oil crash, for example, could depress gasoline prices for quite a while, which could discourage consumers from buying the electric vehicles necessary for a permanent shift away from oil. Lingering fears about the contagion could drag down public transit ridership, and even reduce migration to climate-friendly dense urban areas. China has used lost production during the pandemic as an excuse to suspend some environmental laws, while Trump's administration has permanently dismantled several pollution regulations.
But it's also possible that our new Zoom habits could lead to more working from home and less discretionary business travel. The pandemic could accelerate the decline of coal, which was already getting outcompeted by renewables and natural gas before power demand cratered and petroleum prices plummeted. Looming meat shortages could promote climate-friendlier diets.
And post-pandemic stimulus packages could have an even greater planetary impact. President Barack Obama helped launch a clean energy revolution with his 2009 stimulus, and many Democrats want to pour more money into green investments like wind, solar and electric vehicles. Except this time around, Trump wants the opposite kind of stimulus, pushing for oil bailouts that could help lock in the fossil-fueled status quo.
The wild card is what lessons humanity takes away from its involuntary economic pause. The haze that is lifting around so much of the world — the Himalayas are newly visible from India — is literally broadening horizons, reshaping notions of what's possible. And the pandemic has proven that in an emergency, earthlings can make sacrifices for a collective benefit. If we treat climate change as a similar emergency, the earth might be in still better shape for the 100th Earth Day.
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Our question for our readers this week: What permanent changes will the pandemic cause in your behavior, either at work or at home? Use the form to send us your responses, and we plan to feature several later this week.
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JOIN TOMORROW - COVID-19 AND THE ECONOMIC IMPACT ON WOMEN: It's no secret that the coronavirus has an economic impact - but did you know it's taking an especially heavy toll on the economic well-being of women? Join Women Rule Editorial Director Anna Palmer tomorrow at 4 p.m. EDT for a virtual conversation with Sallie Krawcheck, CEO and co-founder of Ellevest. Hear from Sallie on what steps women can take to regain control of their finances and weather the economic storm. Have a question for Sallie? Tweet it to @POLITICOLive using #AskPOLITICO. REGISTER HERE TO PARTICIPATE.
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3,200 — The number of companies, trade groups and other organizations that lobbied on the $2.2 trillion relief bill that Trump signed into law last month and other efforts to respond to coronavirus, according to an analysis of disclosure filings by the Center for Responsive Politics. They include giants such as Apple, CVS and Toyota, as well as smaller players, such as the American Shrimp Processors Association. (h/t lobbying reporter Theodoric Meyer)
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Matt Wuerker/POLITICO
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A message from PhRMA:
In these unprecedented times, America's biopharmaceutical companies are coming together to achieve one shared goal: beating COVID-19. The investments we've made have prepared us to act swiftly: · Working to protect our workforce and the communities where we live and work, having employees work from home whenever possible and keeping our salesforces out of hospitals and physicians' offices · Remaining steadfast in our commitment to research and develop new medicines to prevent, treat and cure disease in all its forms, not just COVID-19 We all have unique roles to play and are confident that together we can be successful. And we won't rest until we are. Explore our efforts. |
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