Flattening the curve....

Tom Cummings shared a post.

I wrote this on my personal page to help people understand what #flattenthecurve really means and why social distancing is so important because covid19 cases have been consistently growing at an exponential rate. Lots of folks seemed to find it helpful, so I figured I'd share here as well.

Please, unless you need food or essentials, stay put! Avoid people. Wash hands. Take precautions. Listen to scientists and public health researchers.

Boston is 11 days behind Italy and Italy is the apocalypse right now. Korea flattened the curve. Italy didnt. We still got a chance to ride this out.

Tom Cummings

March 13 at 9:15 PM

Let's say you have a lily pad that doubles in size every day, and on the 30th day it covers the entire pond.

What day will the lily pad have covered half the pond?

You probably said day 15. Somewhere in the middle. It's because our brains think linearly. Half of 30 is 15, so half = half.

But the answer is day 29. On day 29 it covered half the pond and doubled the next day.

So how much did it cover on the 15th? About 0.03% of the pond. In fact it doesn't get past 1% until day 24 when it hits 1.5625%. then 3.125%, then 6.25%, then 12.5%, then 25%, then 50%, then covered 100%.

The point? It's manageable and then one day it's not and then it just inevitably takes over. Which is starting to happen with this coronavirus, as the cases double every 3-4 days.

The faster we can social distance, the more time we can save. This is what people mean when they say flatten the curve. If the number of cases grows exponentially (which they are), people will die quickly before the virus incidence rates can naturally decrease. But if we can stay apart and stay out of crowds and stop spreading it (even if you're healthy!) we can shift it to a linear curve - one that our hospitals can manage.

Please, listen to the experts and the scientists and the doctors who are telling us to avoid people. Stay inside and away from people as much as humanly possible for the next couple weeks. Even if you don't have symptoms or have mild symptoms you may be spreading it. And our system depends on you not giving it to others. There's a reason every pro sport has been canceled.

One last thought. Dr Brian Monahan, the attending physician of the Congress, told them to expect 70m to 140m cases. If the reported 3% death rate so far holds, that's 2 million to 4 million dead Americans by summer. For perspective, less than 3 million Americans died last year. Of anything. It's a staggering number.

Edit for another fact: if 140m people get it, and 5% require the ICU (current numbers out of China and Italy), that's 7 million people who will need an ICU bed.

There are 100,000 ICU beds in America. We need to spread out the inevitable or this will be horrific.

#stayinside

#flattenthecurve