Friday, May 3, 2024

POLITICO Nightly: The tax rebellion that could reshape Western politics

 



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BY PEDER SCHAEFER

Gov. Greg Gianforte talks with a supporter during a campaign meet and greet in Missoula, Montana.

Gov. Greg Gianforte talks with a supporter during a campaign meet and greet in Missoula, Montana. | Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

ROCKY MOUNTAIN HIGH — Across the Mountain West, an influx of coastal out-of-staters are causing property taxes to skyrocket, sparking a backlash that could scramble politics across the region.

In some Montana counties, property tax bills jumped by 46 percent in 2023. In Colorado, increases are as high as 40 percent . And in Wyoming, homeowners have been facing double digit percent increases for years .

Due in large part to the uptick in remote jobs in the aftermath of Covid, wealthier newcomers are buying homes under the open skies of the Rocky Mountains, leading to rising real estate values and hefty property tax assessments .

In Montana — where the part-time legislature won’t meet again until 2025 — upstart Democratic gubernatorial candidate Ryan Busse is putting calls to cut the property tax rate at the center of his campaign, while far-right Republicans push for reform from the other side of the political spectrum.

“I travel around the state and Republicans all across the state, Democrats, all of them, tell me the same thing,” Busse said. “Property taxes don’t discriminate. They go into every kind of mailbox, red mailboxes and blue mailboxes, and people cannot believe that this governor raised taxes like this.”

While Republican Montana Gov. Greg Gianforte didn’t raise the tax rate, per se, Busse says that the governor’s refusal to lower it after he knew tax bills for homeowners would go up amounted to accepting an increase.

And while Gianforte has heralded some tax relief programs passed by the legislature, his critics say he hasn’t dealt with the underlying problem. He launched a property tax task force in January, but political leaders in the state resisted calls from the state’s far-right Freedom Caucus to open a special legislative session this year to pass long-term reforms to the way the state does property taxes. After the proposed special property tax session failed, the Freedom Caucus asked voters to “remember these votes” during 2024 primary elections.

“You would think a Republican like Gianforte and the legislature would jump at the opportunity to cut taxes like this, but they haven’t,” said Montana State University Billings political science professor Paul James Pope.

“This has been a curveball for a lot of people, Montanans fully expected some kind of assistance,” added Pope.

In neighboring Wyoming, where GOP Gov. Mark Gordon in March signed a slew of bills to provide targeted property tax exemptions for longtime homeowners and refunds for lower-income residents, far-right legislators were still upset that Gordon had vetoed the strongest proposal that had passed the legislature with overwhelming support : A blanket homestead tax exemption that would have applied a 25 percent exemption to the first $2 million in value of Wyoming homes.

“This is the top issue in the state,” said Wyoming state Rep. John Bear, a Republican member of the state’s Freedom Caucus who called for the governor to sign the blanket exemption. “The pressure is not going to end.”

The sudden spike in property taxes — and the calls for relief — could lead to significant policy changes in these states in the next few years.

“This is going to be a time when people do respond, because the increases have been so sudden and so big,” said Michael Fields, president of Advance Colorado, a conservative political group that’s organizing a series of ballot initiatives to get homeowners property tax relief.

“It wouldn’t surprise me if in the next couple years a lot of reform happens like in the late 1970s and 1980s,” he added.

Fields and other property tax reform activists who spoke with Nightly said that the sudden increases across the Mountain West reminded them of the property tax revolts of the 1970s and 80s, when states like California passed Proposition 13 , which has since severely curtailed property tax revenue collection, contributed to the state’s housing crisis and made income tax the central revenue generator.

But Adam Langley, an associate director of tax policy at the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, a nonpartisan think tank based in Cambridge, Mass., said that moving too quickly to constrain assessed value increases, such as laid out in Proposition 13, could have “major, unintended consequences” on basic government functioning decades into the future.

“During these time periods where property taxes are rising rapidly, state and local policymakers need to respond, but need to do so in a way that they don’t put in place policy that is really hard to unwind in future years,” added Langley.

According to Langley, the growth in home values in Colorado, Montana, Wyoming, Idaho and Utah from 2020 to 2023 ranked “amongst the largest increases in U.S. history” as out-of-staters moved into the region. But he said local governments could control property tax burdens by reducing tax rates, as long as they weren’t burdened by state law.

In Colorado, Fields said that one ballot measure his group is pushing — that would limit statewide property tax increases at 4 percent a year — earned signatures faster than any other ballot initiative the group had sponsored, and drew support from Democrats and Republicans.

Colorado Democratic Gov. Jared Polis has tried to push for reform, but a ballot measure he was in support of failed last November after it was deemed too complicated and voters took issue with how it aimed at the state’s Taxpayer Bill of Rights. The Colorado legislature is now in the midst of trying to pass tax reforms to deal with the problem.

In Idaho, however, legislators moved more quickly to provide relief, passing packages in 2023 and 2024.

“There was an outcry from our constituents who were really clamoring for relief on the property tax question,” said Idaho state Rep. Jason Monks, the Republican majority leader. “If we’re not doing a good job, they’re going to put someone else in there, so we had to move quickly.”

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at pschaefer@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @p_s_schaefer .

 

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TRUMP ON TRIAL

CONTEMPT X2 — Justice Juan Merchan appeared open to some defenses raised by Trump attorney Todd Blanche at today’s contempt hearing on Trump’s four additional alleged gag order violations . But the judge was very skeptical of other arguments by the defense lawyer.

Blanche and Merchan appeared to be on the same page when the attorney argued that Trump’s comment about David Pecker being a “nice guy” was not material to the gag order and could not have been an attempt to influence testimony in the case.

The judge then asked Blanche to address statements Trump made about the jury on April 22, calling the selection process “very unfair” and alleging the “area” (Manhattan) was 95 percent Democratic.

When Blanche began speaking about the comment, Merchan interjected: “Did he violate the gag order?” Blanche argued that the jury comment did not violate the gag, saying the comment came in the middle of a 21-minute interview and in response to a question.

“I’m not accepting the argument. That’s why I’m asking,” Merchan told Blanche.

TURN UP THE HEAT — Trump attorney Emil Bove’s cross-examination of Stormy Daniels’ attorney Keith Davidson has at times become testy , as Bove tries to paint Davidson as a shake-down artist. The implication of the questioning is that Davidson extorted the $130,000 payment he negotiated for his client Stormy Daniels in 2016.

Bove raised a series of dubious legal claims involving celebrities that Davidson was involved in over the course of his career. They include legal actions involving Hulk Hogan, Lindsey Lohan, Tila Tequila and Charlie Sheen.

Bove, for instance, asked Davidson if he was investigated by state and federal authorities for allegedly extorting Hogan in 2012. Davidson, who represented people who had possession of a sex tape featuring the professional wrestler, responded that he was.

Bove repeatedly asked Davidson if he “extracted” money from celebrities in his legal deals.

Here’s how Davidson characterized the claims: “We asserted that there was tortious activity committed and there were valid settlements executed.”

Bove grew frustrated with Davidson, telling him, “Look, we’re both lawyers. I’m not here to play lawyer games with you.” Davidson later shot back: “If you’re not here to play legal games, then don’t say ‘extract.’”

WHAT'D I MISS?

— Biden condemns campus protest violence: No ‘right to cause chaos’: President Joe Biden today condemned pro-Palestinian protests on college campuses that have turned violent or resulted in property destruction , emphasizing that Americans only have the right to protest as long as it remains peaceful. “There is a right to protest,” Biden said, in his most extensive remarks since the campus protest movement began. “But there is not a right to cause chaos.” The president, however, rejected the idea that the National Guard should be called in to quell some of the demonstrations at campuses across the country.


— FTC says Texas oil exec sought to work with OPEC to boost prices: The Federal Trade Commission today accused the former head of a Texas oil company of seeking to collude with his OPEC competitors to sync U.S. oil production and inflate energy prices. The accusations were included as a stipulation to the FTC’s approval of ExxonMobil’s takeover over Pioneer Natural Resources, a deal that drew competition concerns in the heart of the U.S. oil patch. The FTC barred Pioneer’s founder and former CEO from taking a seat on the combined company’s board of directors, citing his efforts to coordinate oil output with the cartel that sets export levels for Saudi Arabia, Russia and nearly two dozen other countries.

— Where the Senate stands on passing House antisemitism bill: Senate Democratic and Republican leadership are gauging their members’ opinions on a House-passed antisemitism bill by running a “hotline” on the legislation, per a Senate leadership aide. Typically, leadership will hotline a bill to see if it can clear the Senate floor quickly, without a roll call vote. Any one senator can slow down passage. Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said this afternoon there were objections from both sides of the aisle but that “we’re going to look for the best way to move forward.”

NIGHTLY ROAD TO 2024

WON’T GO QUIETLY — Donald Trump suggested he may not accept the results of the 2024 election in the key swing state of Wisconsin in an interview with the state’s largest newspaper, where he also falsely claimed he won the state in 2020, reports POLITICO. “If everything’s honest, I’ll gladly accept the results. I don’t change on that,” Trump told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel on Wednesday when he was in the state for a rally. “If it’s not, you have to fight for the right of the country.”

In the same interview, Trump repeated the false claim that he won Wisconsin in the 2020 election — saying “all of the things that had been found out” showed he “actually won” — despite the fact that he lost the state by more than 20,000 votes to President Joe Biden.

BIDEN ON ALABAMA BALLOT — Alabama lawmakers today gave final approval to legislation to ensure President Joe Biden will appear on the state’s November ballot , mirroring accommodations the state made four years ago for then-President Donald Trump, writes the Associated Press.

The House of Representatives voted 93-0 for the legislation. It now goes to Republican Gov. Kay Ivey for her signature. Ivey spokeswoman Gina Maiola said the governor will sign the bill into law. The issue of Biden’s ballot access has arisen in Alabama and Ohio because the states’ early certification deadlines fall before the Democratic National Convention begins on Aug. 19. Republican secretaries of state warned that Biden might not appear on state ballots.

AROUND THE WORLD

Russia's Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu attends a wreath-laying ceremony at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier by the Kremlin Wall to mark the Defender of the Fatherland Day in Moscow on Feb. 23.

Russia's Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu attends a wreath-laying ceremony at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier by the Kremlin Wall to mark the Defender of the Fatherland Day in Moscow on Feb. 23. | Alexander Kazakov/Pool/AFP via Getty Images

IN THE CROSSHAIRS — In Russia, where high-profile court cases are informed by politics rather than the rule of law, arrests often deliver messages not justice.

That’s why the arrest of Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov on April 23 on charges of taking bribes is a bombshell . Such cases against senior officials are a rarity.

Coming on the eve of Vladimir Putin’s inauguration for a fifth presidential term next week, which is expected to be followed by a government reshuffle, Ivanov’s arrest is widely interpreted as an ominous sign for Russia’s longtime Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.

Although Shoigu has a dozen deputies, Ivanov was among his closest allies. Their ties go back more than a decade, first working together in the Moscow regional government before Ivanov followed his boss into the defense ministry. Ivanov’s lawyer denies the charges, but he was fired by Shoigu last week, Russia’s TASS news agency reported.

In his latest job overseeing military construction, Ivanov was in charge of some of Russia’s most prestigious projects, including a giant military-themed cathedral and patriotic theme park on the outskirts of Moscow and, more recently, reconstruction work in the ruined city of Mariupol in occupied Ukraine.

His access to astronomic funds earned him the nickname “Shoigu’s wallet.”

HUSH HUSH — German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will meet French President Emmanuel Macron tonight in Paris for a dinner to discuss European Union and China policy.

The clandestine meeting of two heavyweight EU leaders, which comes just days ahead of a visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping to Europe, is being described as a semi-private event: Scholz and his wife, Britta Ernst, are on a short vacation in the French capital, where they will meet Macron and his wife Brigitte in a French restaurant.

No advisers will participate, according to three people with knowledge of the dinner, who were granted anonymity as they are not allowed to speak publicly.

Scholz and Macron have repeatedly clashed in recent years, most recently in February when the French president opened the door to potentially sending ground troops to Ukraine, which the chancellor strongly rejected.

 

**Power Play will be at the 27th Annual Milken Global Conference in Los Angeles, from May 5-8. POLITICO’s highly influential podcast, hosted by Anne McElvoy, will bring conversations with power players in politics, finance, tech philanthropy and beyond to your ears, as they grapple with the world’s most pressing and complex challenges. Listen and follow Power Play here .**

 
 
NIGHTLY NUMBER

€1 billion

The amount ($1.07 billion) that the EU pledged in aid to Lebanon today , in part to help stem the flow of refugees to Europe. The announcement follows a sharp rise in the number of Syrian migrants arriving in Cyprus, which is an EU member country.

RADAR SWEEP

HOSTILE TAKEOVER — To save The Daily Beast’s flagging business, owners brought in Joanna Coles, the former chief content officer for Hearst Magazines and editor-in-chief of Cosmopolitan, to serve as the online outlet’s chief creative and content officer, essentially taking over the editorial side of the company. Her style of management and ideas, though, have come into conflict with what the existing newsroom prioritizes . Journalists have quit or are actively looking for new jobs while Coles tries to remake the organization into something buzzier and snappier and more gossip-filled, including a new gossip column called “Beast Buzz” and a focus on celebrities like Lauren Sanchez and Meghan Markle. Justin Miller, a former editor at The Daily Beast himself, explores the newsroom blowup for New York Magazine.

PARTING IMAGE

On this date in 1992: Two National Guardsmen patrol in front of a Sears store at the intersection of Santa Monica Blvd. and Western Ave. near Hollywood, Los Angeles, in the midst of riots after the Rodney King trial verdict.

On this date in 1992: Two National Guardsmen patrol in front of a Sears store at the intersection of Santa Monica Blvd. and Western Ave. near Hollywood, Los Angeles, in the midst of riots after the Rodney King trial verdict. | Nick Ut/AP

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