POLITICO NIGHTLY: Old pandemic, new tricks

BY RENUKA RAYASAM AND MYAH WARD

Presented by The Bouqs Co.

SHOOT ME NOW — Roughly 20 million people could be vaccinated against the coronavirus in December, the head of the Trump administration’s vaccine and drug accelerator said today. Americans can expect that about 25 to 30 million people could be vaccinated each month afterward. That timeline depends on the Food and Drug Administration authorizing the emergency use of one or more vaccines. SCOOP — President-elect Joe Biden will restore the daily press briefing — and at least two women are under consideration to lead the new post-Trump show, according to people familiar with the deliberations. Kate Bedingfield is seen as having the inside track to become either White House communications director or press secretary. Symone Sanders could be offered the role of incoming press secretary, or slot into another position before winding up “at the podium” down the line. THE DEFINITION OF INSANITY — Oregon Gov. Kate Brown shut down bars, restaurants and other businesses and limited gatherings today. In New York, curfews and gathering bans are going into effect later tonight. California, after reaching 1 million cases this week, joined Washington and Oregon today in asking residents to avoid out-of-state nonessential travel and urging those arriving to their states to quarantine for 14 days. But as the pandemic plods on, that approach — mandates, curfews, shutdowns, travel restrictions and gathering bans — seems to be achieving diminishing returns. In some places, the rules have been ignored. In others they’ve backfired, sparking outrage and litigation. They’re hard to enforce. Ten months since the country’s first Covid case, Americans are feeling more than pandemic fatigue. There’s confusion, resignation and denial. “I think we know that shame doesn’t work,” said Saskia Popescu, an epidemiologist at the University of Arizona. “We have to get people to buy into something.” Mark R. Schleiss, a pediatric infectious disease expert at the University of Minnesota Medical School, said leaders should tap into the country’s patriotism and competitiveness: “Why can’t we make Covid-19 disease control a Sputnik moment?” he said. It’s time for new tactics that make the old ones actually work, say many public health experts. Here are some ideas for changing how many Americans feel about Covid safety: Mask mandates: Sixteen red state governors are opposing statewide mask mandates. Incoming freshman Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene tweeted today that “Masks are oppressive” along with “#FreeYourFace.” Eric Toner, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, suggested trying to change minds by engaging red-state cultural icons and community leaders: Think NASCAR drivers filming mask PSAs and church pastors imploring people to cover their faces. Gathering bans: A New York Republican posted on Twitter that he’s defying Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s 10 person limit for at-home gatherings: “I’ll be having more than 10 ppl at my house on Thanksgiving.” Democrats are setting bad examples, too: Both House Democrats and GOP leaders are holding indoor dinners with new members, with Speaker Nancy Pelosi defending the decision and calling it safe. Harsher measures, like fines and jail time, for people who violate at home gathering bans have worked, Toner said. But Marilyn Felkner, a public health professor at the University of Texas, compares Covid restrictions to Prohibition. You can outlaw all these behaviors, but unless people buy into the idea it won’t work. Popescu suggests focusing on risk minimization: Don’t ban Thanksgiving. Instead promote holding family dinner outdoors while people wear masks. It won’t be foolproof, but it’s better than doing nothing. Also, top leaders modeling Covid-safe behavior is a good place to start. Business closures: Many countries have paid businesses and their workers to shut down. At the start of the pandemic the U.S. did too. But there are less blunt measures that could be tried, like federal grants to businesses to improve ventilation or to build outdoor spaces. The thing about soft power, though, is that even if it involves the Scorpions’ “Wind of Change,” it would probably take months before it works. It took decades to convince people they shouldn’t smoke and that they should wear seat belts. With the pandemic, the country has already run out of time. Thousands are dying daily. By Jan. 20, the country will record 360,000 deaths, according to the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. “As a scientist, I hate to say this, but it’s your anecdotal experience, right?” Schleiss said. “People are more likely to wear seat belts if they've lost a loved one to a traffic accident. If you’ve had a Covid death in a loved one, a family member, it may resonate with you in a way that changes your behavior.” Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. I can’t wait until all profiles of powerful men include at least a few paragraphs about how they juggle their demanding jobs with caring for their kids, like these recent profiles of women in politics and media. Or maybe we should leave the kids out of it? Reach out at rrayasam@politico.com and mward@politico.com or on Twitter at @renurayasam or @MyahWard.

U.S. Representative-elect Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) moves between meetings during new-member orientation in the U.S. Capitol Visitors Center Congressional Auditorium today in Washington, D.C. | Getty

A message from The Bouqs Co.: The Bouqs Co. has fresh flower bouquets, wreaths, plants, gifts and everything you need for all the coziest fall vibes. The best part: flowers from The Bouqs stay fresher longer because they’re sourced directly from eco-friendly farms. Send smiles no matter the miles, for birthdays, holidays, anniversaries, apologies, or just because you adulted today. Use code POLITICO for 25% off your entire order.

BIDENOLOGY

Welcome to Bidenology, Nightly’s look at the president-elect and what to expect in his administration. Tonight, we look at Biden the world traveler. Nahal Toosi and Lauren Gardner email Nightly: In his many years as a senator and as Barack Obama’s vice president, Biden traveled to numerous countries. But now as he weighs what country to visit first as president of the United States, the coronavirus pandemic is raising questions as to whether, when and where he should go. Even Canada — a favorite first stop for modern-day presidents — may prefer that Biden not show up for the time being. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has made a point of leading by example throughout the public health crisis — working from home, eschewing haircuts, and turning down an invitation to visit Washington in July to commemorate the new North American trade deal. So the politics of Trudeau welcoming the U.S. president could be fraught, given America’s status as a Covid-19 hotspot. A Biden transition spokesperson declined to comment on the president-elect’s travel plans, and Biden aides have been cautious about following pandemic-related protocols during his outings. Still, it’s hard to imagine that Biden, who loves tackling foreign policy challenges, won’t want to go globetrotting as soon as possible. Biden was an important emissary for Obama, often tasked with delivering sensitive messages to foreign governments. He warned Turkey against a “corrosive ” concentration of power, urged Pakistanis not to let their society be “consumed” by extremism and told Kosovo that corruption is a “cancer.” In 2011, Obama sent him to China to size up a top figure named Xi Jinping, who later became that country’s leader; Biden also stopped by a noodle shop. Now that he’s won the presidency, Biden is telling world leaders eager to move beyond Trump’s unpredictability and disdain that “America is back.” In some cases, he’s talking to officials he’s known for many years. But the politics of Biden’s message could get more complicated once he can travel, if not sooner. In 2009, for instance, Republicans accused Obama of staging an “apology tour ” as he met foreign counterparts following the exit of a deeply unpopular George W. Bush.

TRACK THE TRANSITION, SUBSCRIBE TO TRANSITION PLAYBOOK: The definitive guide to what could be one of the most consequential transfers of power in American history. Our Transition Playbook newsletter—written for political insiders—tracks the appointments, people, and power centers of the new administration. Don't miss out. Subscribe today.

AROUND THE NATION MUSICAL CHAIRS — Massachusetts Playbook author Stephanie Murray emails Nightly: Biden’s administration could remake Massachusetts politics. In what’s practically a one-party state with definitely a wait-your-turn political culture, the fastest way to shake up politics may be for high-ranking officials to take jobs in Washington. Just one prominent Massachusetts politician joining the administration would create an electoral domino effect, and perhaps launch the national party’s next rising star. That’s because incumbents almost never lose here. In the state’s most recent primary contest, virtually every incumbent Democrat beat their primary challenger. Rep. Ayanna Pressley and Rep. Seth Moulton are rare recent exceptions. Now, in a matter of months, the Biden administration could take out the mayor of New England's largest city just ahead of his reelection, the state’s senior senator, its attorney general and its popular Republican governor. Boston Mayor Marty Walsh, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Healey, Rep. Joe Kennedy III and Republican Gov. Charlie Baker could head all south to Washington this winter. A Warren appointment is pretty far-fetched, especially if Republicans control the Senate and the appointment process. But her possible role as treasury secretary comes with the most intense speculation. There’s been little Senate turnover in Massachusetts for the last half century. The late Sen. Ted Kennedy held his seat for nearly five decades, and John Kerry was in the Senate for 28 years. An open Senate seat could tee up a major primary between Pressley, Kennedy, Attorney General Maura Healey and even former Gov. Deval Patrick. A recent poll found Pressley would lead a prospective primary field. A state lawmaker has drafted legislation that would prevent Baker from appointing a Republican interim senator. Walsh is perhaps the most likely to join Biden’s cabinet. He’s being pushed for Labor secretary by AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka and has a close relationship with Biden. The president-elect presided over Walsh’s inauguration in 2018, and Walsh was an active Biden surrogate on the 2020 campaign trail. Walsh’s departure would reshape Boston's 2021 mayoral race. The mayor hasn’t announced a campaign but is widely expected to run. An incumbent Boston mayor hasn’t lost in more than 70 years, and that was when Mayor James Michael Curley spent part of his term in federal prison. But if Walsh leaves, Boston may be on track to elect its first woman of color mayor. The city elected its most diverse city council ever last year. Speculation is also swirling around whether Healey, the attorney general who sued President Donald Trump, may be tapped for a role in the Department of Justice. “I am hearing that our very own attorney general of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is on a shortlist,” Suffolk County District Attorney Rachael Rollins, herself seen as a potential attorney general candidate if Healey moves on said during a public radio interview today. Plus, Rep. Joe Kennedy III will soon be out of a job. He gave up his House seat to challenge Sen. Ed Markey in the Democratic primary, and is now seen as a potential Biden appointee. That’s notable because a job in Washington would take Kennedy — a popular politician and powerful fundraiser — out of the pool of would-be candidates for Senate, attorney general or governor. REGRETS, I’VE HAD A FEW — Gov. Gavin Newsom said today he should not have attended a fancy dinner party honoring a top political adviser — just as the governor is trying to discourage households from gathering for the holidays, California Playbook author Jeremy B. White writes. The Democratic governor, First Partner Jennifer Siebel Newsom and people from several other households gathered outside this month at The French Laundry to celebrate the 50th birthday of lobbyist Jason Kinney, a longtime friend. The dinner at one of the world’s most exclusive restaurants was first reported by the San Francisco Chronicle. While Newsom’s office said the outdoor meal hewed to protocols, the governor conceded that he erred in joining the gathering. “While the First Partner and I followed the restaurant’s health protocols and took safety precautions, I should have modeled better behavior and not joined the dinner,” Newsom said in a statement. TRANSITION 2020 MAINE MAN — Biden is considering plucking Angus King from the Senate to serve as director of national intelligence in his new administration, according to three people familiar with the transition team discussions, national security correspondent Natasha Bertrand and defense reporter Lara Seligman write. The senator from Maine, an independent who caucuses with Democrats, is a prominent member of the Senate Intelligence and Armed Services committees. His appointment as Biden’s intelligence chief would give the president-elect someone in the position that both he and the intelligence community know well. But it would also vacate a Democratic Senate seat in a state that just overwhelmingly reelected a Republican, Susan Collins, to its other Senate seat. SCOUTING BIDEN’S CABINET — Over the next couple months, Biden needs to put together a team to help him rebuild a shattered economy, fight a global pandemic and recover from one of the most polarizing elections in U.S. history. Easy, right? In the latest POLITICO Dispatch, Megan Cassella breaks down who is in contention for some of the toughest jobs in the nation. 1113 POLITICO Dispatch Email Audio Marker       FROM THE HEALTH DESK THIS IS YOUR BRAIN ON COVID — Covid is obviously bad for your physical health. But it’s bad for your mental health, too, according to a study from researchers at Britain’s University of Oxford. By analyzing the electronic health records of 69 million people in the U.S., the researchers found that 20 percent of people infected with coronavirus developed a mental illness — most commonly anxiety, depression and insomnia — within 90 days of their diagnosis. More surprising, the study found that people with preexisting mental illness were 65 percent more likely to be diagnosed with Covid than those without. Nightly’s Myah Ward broke down the findings with Oxford psychiatry professor Paul Harrison, one of the study’s authors. This conversation has been edited. Is 20 percent what you expected going into the study? Part of me in a way is a bit relieved that there wasn’t a higher incidence of mental health problems. I don’t know how it’s been in the U.S., but in the U.K. people have talked about expecting what we call a tsunami of mental health illnesses. Now, if four out of five people are getting through the first three months without a diagnosis, that doesn’t quite sound like a tsunami to me. The 65 percent statistic for those with preexisting mental illness really puzzled me. What could explain it? We were very surprised, but there was a small study out of UCLA essentially reporting the same thing. And then two weeks ago, just as our paper had been accepted, another very large American electronic health records database on another 60 million people found an even more striking association. So now the finding is quite robust. I think the question is, What’s the interpretation? When we first saw that, we thought, “Maybe that’s just because we know that patients with psychiatric problems also tend to have worse physical health for various reasons.” We tried to control for those factors as far as we could, and the effect didn’t go away. So there seems to be some effect of having a psychiatric diagnosis that is more than just those physical health problems. We weren’t able to really explore other lifestyle, social and economic factors that maybe can account for those associations. I’m not saying I believe this, but it’s possible that patients with psychiatric disorders might have a slightly higher level of inflammation. And so, possibly, if you’re already a person whose level of inflammation is a little bit higher, when Covid comes along, perhaps you’re more likely to get the illness. It’s also hypothetically possible that some of the drugs that are used for psychiatric problems might increase your risk for Covid. I emphasize that I’ve got no evidence. I think it's very unlikely. But it just illustrates the range of very different explanations. Do you suspect these findings have to do with Covid having a physical impact on the brain, or are they caused by factors like isolation and guilt? I think we need positive evidence that this has an effect on the brain. We think we know now that patients with Covid are more likely to have strokes and vascular damage to the brain. And we know that people who’ve had strokes can then develop longer-term psychiatric and cognitive problems. So in our next study and other studies that are going on at the moment, people are looking at more of those kinds of outcomes that are more to do with the brain. But I think the guilt, the anxiety, the stress, the worry of having had Covid will still end up being important. That would be my prediction. PUNCHLINES THE WEEK THAT WAS — Will Trump leave the White House? Matt Wuerker, in the Punchlines Weekend Wrap, takes you through the latest in political satire and cartoons on the transition.   KEEP UP WITH THE GLOBAL HEALTH AGENDA: If nothing else, 2020 revealed how critical it is to keep up with the politics, policy, and people driving global health. How are governments working to improve the health of their citizens? What role are NGOs playing? Who is driving the agenda? Our Global Pulse newsletter connects leaders, policymakers, and advocates to the people, and politics impacting our global health. Join the conversation and subscribe today.     NIGHTLY NUMBER 7 The number of high-profile companies developing coronavirus vaccines and treatments that Russian and North Korean government operatives have attempted to hack into on several occasions, Microsoft said today. PARTING WORDS THE TRUMP HOTEL ELBA? What is to be done with Donald Trump? History offers a solution that could work to everyone’s advantage: political exile. The U.S. Constitution, of course, has no mechanism for imposing such a sentence on a former president, but Trump himself might enjoy following one particular precedent, Princeton historian David A. Bell writes in POLITICO Magazine. In April 1814, Napoleon Bonaparte abdicated the throne of France. Despite losing a massive army in Russia a year and a half earlier, he had continued to fight valiantly against a large allied coalition, but finally he was pushed back into his home territory and forced to surrender. By the Treaty of Fontainebleau, Napoleon agreed to leave France, and to renounce all claims by his family to the country. The treaty allowed Napoleon to keep his title of “emperor” and gave him a new principality to rule: the Mediterranean island of Elba, off the coast of Tuscany and not far from his native Corsica — a pleasant place roughly the size of Martha’s Vineyard, with a craggy coastline and mild climate. Napoleon would have a spacious mansion to live in, a 400-man honor guard and a large staff. Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here.   A message from The Bouqs Co.: Gatherings are looking a little bit different this holiday season. Luckily, The Bouqs Co. has everything you need to make home feel like somewhere you want to be versus somewhere you have to be. Festive autumn bouquets, wreaths, and plants from The Bouqs stay fresher longer because everything is sourced directly from the farm — even farms from the side of a volcano! Bouqs.com has all the fresh goodness to help spice up your space or brighten someone’s day, and with a thoughtful assortment that has something for everyone, sending smiles no matter the miles has never been easier. Treat yourself or someone else with flower bouquets, plants, wreaths, and gifts from The Bouqs — perfect for birthdays, holidays, anniversaries, apologies, or just because you adulted today! Use code POLITICO for 25% off your order.     Follow us on Twitter Renuka Rayasam @renurayasam Chris Suellentrop @suellentrop Tyler Weyant @tweyant Myah Ward @myahward   FOLLOW US    POLITICO, LLC 1000 Wilson Blvd. Arlington, VA, 22209, USA