POLITICO Nightly: Why Trump should be worried about RFK Jr.

BY PEDER SCHAEFER Robert F. Kennedy Jr. delivers remarks at the Libertarian National Convention at the Washington Hilton on May 24. | Francis Chung/POLITICO IMPRESSIVE IGNORANCE! LOCKDOWN POLITICS — The Libertarian National Convention may have just answered a question that’s been the subject of much speculation for months — which presidential candidate has more to fear from Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s independent campaign. It’s Donald Trump. While Democrats have sought to short-circuit Kennedy’s campaign because of a generalized fear that he could play a spoiler role in closely-fought swing states, Trump’s decision to address the convention last weekend in Washington reflected a more specific concern — that Kennedy is biting into the slice of voters for whom opposition to vaccine mandates and lockdowns is central to their political identities. It’s not enough to lead Kennedy to victory, but it could do damage to Trump’s prospects. The disparate receptions Kennedy and Trump received underscored the validity of those worries. Kennedy was cheered in a relatively well-received Friday speech. Trump, by contrast, was attacked by Libertarian presidential candidates for undermining libertarian principles before and after he spoke. During Trump’s Saturday evening address, the party faithful heckled the former president over his role in lockdowns, yelling at him that “you crushed our rights.” “I think [Kennedy] has the right instincts on medical freedom,” said Dustin Richwine, 35, a libertarian-leaning voter from Pennsylvania who was wearing a Kennedy shirt on Friday afternoon. Richwine said he would never consider voting for Trump because of the role he played in lockdowns, but that he didn’t want to throw away his vote to the Libertarian Party nominee again. (The Libertarian nominee won just over one percent of the popular vote in 2020). “Trump kept Fauci in a position of power, and I don’t see any reason to support him,” said Henry Bingaman, another libertarian voter from Pennsylvania. “We can’t get back to lockdowns.” For libertarians, Trump’s willingness to initially support lockdowns during the pandemic and his role in Operation Warp Speed, which successfully developed the first Covid-19 vaccine, make him persona non grata. Kennedy, who built a movement on social media with his anti-lockdown views and vaccine skepticism, nailed him for it. “With lockdown, mask mandates, the travel restrictions, President Trump presided over the greatest restriction on individual liberties this country has ever known,” Kennedy told the audience to cheers , while mostly laying off President Joe Biden. Neither Kennedy nor Trump came close to winning the Libertarian nomination for president. But the eventual nominee, Chase Oliver , made clear how much the party dislikes Trump. “When he killed millions of small businesses in this country [with Covid lockdowns], was he being a free market capitalist, or was he being an authoritarian tyrant?” Oliver said in a rebuttal to the press after Trump’s speech on Saturday night . “You can answer that question for yourself.” The problem for Trump is that it’s not just libertarians for whom lockdowns and vaccines are salient issues. The anti-vax political movement that Kennedy has hitched his wagon to is growing , and those skeptical of vaccines tend to lean Republican . This partisan slant is also reflected in surveys in the years after the pandemic . There is limited public polling on Covid-related policies in 2024, and most Americans told Gallup in a recent survey that they think the pandemic is over. But in an election where the margin of victory is expected to be narrow between Biden and Trump, the loss of even a small cohort of voters who prioritize relitigating Covid lockdowns and vaccine mandates could prove decisive to Trump’s chances. Trump’s been concerned enough that he’s taken a hard-line on vaccines recently, threatening to “not give one penny ” to schools or colleges that mandate the Covid-19 vaccine. He’s called Kennedy a “Democrat ‘Plant’” on Truth Social , and attacked him as a “radical left liberal” with “views on vaccines” that are “fake.” The Trump campaign is aware that any mention at all about his success in expediting the development of the Covid vaccine is fraught — political allies like conservative commentator Charlie Kirk and Alex Jones of InfoWars have warned of damaging consequences for Trump if he tries to talk up his vaccine record. Trump may have gone to the Libertarian convention hoping to dent the Kennedy bandwagon and shore-up the part of his political coalition that is resistant to vaccines and lockdowns. But what he may have discovered is that, in this first post-Covid presidential election, those voters may be already lost to him. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at pschaefer@politico.com .   THE GOLD STANDARD OF TECHNOLOGY POLICY REPORTING & INTELLIGENCE: POLITICO has more than 500 journalists delivering unrivaled reporting and illuminating the policy and regulatory landscape for those who need to know what’s next. Throughout the election and the legislative and regulatory pushes that will follow, POLITICO Pro is indispensable to those who need to make informed decisions fast. 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Get the premier news and policy intelligence service, SUBSCRIBE TO POLITICO PRO TODAY.   TRUMP ON TRIAL IN CLOSING — The defense finished their closing argument today, while the prosecution remains in the midst of theirs at time of publication, with jurors working late to finish the closings today. Trump’s lawyers opened by making it clear: The crux of their defense is to decimate Michael Cohen’s credibility as a witness . For nearly 10 minutes at the start of Trump’s closing argument, his lead lawyer Todd Blanche hammered Cohen relentlessly. “He. Lied. To. You,” Blanche intoned. Blanche portrayed Cohen as a self-aggrandizing Trump groupie who wanted the world to know he was Trump’s personal attorney — including after Trump reached the White House. Therefore, Blanche said, it was no surprise that Trump paid him a retainer fee for legal services throughout 2017. Blanche also argued that it was Daniels who was prompted to act by the release of the Access Hollywood tape , rather than Trump, as prosecutors have claimed. Blanche argued that Daniels saw that Trump was vulnerable and decided she could extract money from him. Prosecutors, for their part, quickly moved to minimize the significance of Michael Cohen to their case against Donald Trump , acknowledging the defense’s attempt to savage his credibility but suggesting that other witnesses — those with no motives to damage Trump — had already helped them prove their case. For example, media executive David Pecker, who Trump’s own defense team treated as credible, helped the prosecutors establish that Trump conspired to influence the 2016 election. “You don’t need Michael Cohen to prove that one bit,” said lead prosecutor Joshua Steinglass. Other witnesses still loyal to Trump, who presumably had incentive to “skew their testimony” in Trump’s favor, nevertheless provided “critical pieces of the puzzle, building blocks that help establish the defendants’ guilt,” Steinglass said. THE PRISON QUESTION — As former President Donald Trump’s first — and, perhaps, only — criminal trial crawls to a conclusion, conventional wisdom holds that even if he’s convicted, he’s unlikely to do prison time. After all, the charges he faces are among New York’s mildest felonies, and if found guilty he would be a first-time offender. Don’t be so sure, according to former prosecutors from the office now charging him . The case, in which Trump is accused of falsifying business documents to conceal a payoff to a porn star, is unlike any other. So it’s hard to predict how Justice Juan Merchan, who is presiding over the trial, would handle any sentencing. “This is not a one-off, ‘Oops, I made a mistake on my business records,’ or even, a one-off scheme,” said Diana Florence, a former prosecutor in the Manhattan District Attorney’s Office who ran for the DA’s job in 2021 but lost to Alvin Bragg, the lead prosecutor in the Trump case. “Given the entirety of the facts and circumstances that came out during the trial, I believe if convicted, a sentence of incarceration is warranted and justified,” Florence said. NOT-SO-GOODFELLAS — The Biden campaign brought a high-profile supporter for its impromptu press conference outside Trump’s trial today : Robert De Niro. The actor, who recently participated in a new ad campaign for the president, railed against Trump, a fellow New Yorker (“He doesn’t belong in my city. I don’t know where he belongs, but he surely doesn’t belong here.”), and warned that if Trump is elected again to the White House, “he will never leave.” A nearby car alarm and a crowd of Trump supporters shouting in an adjacent park drowned out much of what De Niro said in person, though his remarks were picked up on microphones for viewers at home. Former police officers Michael Fanone and Harry Dunn, who responded to the Jan. 6, 2021 Capitol attack, joined De Niro at the courthouse in speaking out against Trump. WHAT'D I MISS? — DC’s liberal bent does not amount to inherent bias against Jan. 6 defendants, appeals court rules: Washington, D.C.’s left-leaning politics has no bearing on its residents’ ability to be fair jurors in trials of those who stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, a federal appeals court ruled today. Two former President Donald Trump appointees from the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals joined an appointee of former President Barack Obama in a unanimous three-judge ruling that turned down arguments from lawyers for former New York City Police Officer Thomas Webster that Washington jurors were too biased to sit on cases related to the riot. — Aid deliveries suspended after rough seas damage U.S.-built temporary pier in Gaza: The U.S.-built temporary pier taking humanitarian aid to starving Palestinians will be removed from the coast of Gaza to be repaired after getting damaged in rough seas and weather , the Pentagon said today. Over the next two days, the pier will be pulled out and sent to the southern Israeli city of Ashdod, where U.S. Central Command will repair it, Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh told reporters. She said the fixes will take “at least over a week” and then the pier will need to be anchored back into the beach in Gaza. The pier, used to carry in humanitarian aid arriving by sea, is one of the few ways that food, water and other supplies are getting to Palestinians who the U.N. says are on the brink of famine amid the nearly 8-month-old war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. — Deadly Rafah strike doesn’t cross Biden’s ‘red line’: The Biden administration has decided Israel’s weekend strike in Rafah that reportedly killed nearly 50 displaced Palestinians did not cross the “red line” President Joe Biden set two months ago, a U.S. official said today. The administration made clear in public and in private today that the incident, while devastating, would not trigger any serious reprimand from Washington . It’s the strongest indicator yet that Israel is conducting a military operation that the administration can accept, even if U.S. officials don’t like every aspect of it. NIGHTLY ROAD TO 2024 GOING VIRTUAL — The Democratic National Committee announced today that it will nominate President Joe Biden through a “virtual roll call” vote ahead of the August convention to ensure he appears on the Ohio ballot this November, reports POLITICO. Ohio’s ballot deadline is Aug. 7, two weeks before the DNC planned to hold its official presidential nomination at an in-person convention in Chicago. Frank LaRose, the Republican secretary of state, warned last week that Biden would not be on the state’s ballot unless the state lawmakers moved the ballot access deadline to after the Democratic convention. Days later, the DNC announced it would expedite the nominating process, though no date has yet been announced for the virtual roll call. KEEP IT LOW-KEY — Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) has not visited the courthouse in Manhattan to flaunt his support for Donald Trump like other potential running mates. He is not a fixture at the former president’s campaign rallies and has not become part of the furniture at Mar-a-Lago, like other Republicans craving relevancy, writes the New York Times. Instead, Rubio has taken a low-key approach in aiming to become the next Republican vice-presidential nominee , a strategy with a clear logic: Trump is known to bristle when anyone gets too close to his limelight. Rubio’s behind-the-scenes maneuvering has transformed him from bitter rival to occasional policy adviser and, now, among a group of leading contenders to join Mr. Trump’s ticket, advisers to the former president said. ‘BAD FOR VIRGINIA’ — Former President Donald Trump officially endorsed Rep. Bob Good’s primary challenge this morning, a huge potential liability for the chair of the House Freedom Caucus, writes POLITICO. In a social media post, Trump called Good “BAD FOR VIRGINIA AND BAD FOR THE USA.” It’s not a shocking development — Good has now endorsed Trump for president, but only after he initially backed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, prompting ire from Trump loyalists. Trump called Good’s endorsement “too late” in the post. AROUND THE WORLD Peter Pellegrini (left) and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico (right) speak to journalists after the announcement of Pellegrini's victory in the second round of the Slovak presidential elections on April 6 in Bratislava, Slovakia. | Vladimir Simicek/AFP via Getty Images CRACKDOWN — Less than a fortnight after a failed assassination attempt on Prime Minister Robert Fico, Slovakia is back in the headlines for a more familiar reason — government pressure on media freedom and democratic norms . MPs for the Slovak National Party (SNS), a junior partner in the country’s leftist-populist ruling coalition, on Monday submitted draft amendments to the country’s media law and its Law on Freedom of Access to Information. The proposed changes to the media law would introduce a “right to a correction” that would require media, when challenged, to change allegedly untrue or incomplete statements “that impugn [the applicant’s] honor, dignity or good reputation.” GOODBYE EU — The Georgian parliament today voted to adopt a controversial new law that would brand Western-backed NGOs and media outlets as “foreign agents,” marking a dramatic escalation in a growing row with Washington and Brussels. The proposals, which would designate civil society groups that receive more than 20 percent of their funding from abroad as “pursuing the interests of a foreign power,” was passed by MPs by a margin of 84 votes to 4, with most opposition lawmakers abstaining. That comes after Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili refused to sign the bill into law, branding it a “Russian law” that “contradicts our constitution and all European standards.” However, her veto was overridden by a simple majority in parliament.   LISTEN TO POLITICO'S ENERGY PODCAST: Check out our daily five-minute brief on the latest energy and environmental politics and policy news. Don't miss out on the must-know stories, candid insights, and analysis from POLITICO's energy team. Listen today.   NIGHTLY NUMBER $1 billion The amount that Melinda French Gates plans to donate over the next two years to individuals and groups working on behalf of women and families, including on reproductive rights in the U.S. French Gates announced earlier this month that she would step down from the Gates foundation, taking $12 billion in capital with her for her future philanthropy. RADAR SWEEP SILENT TREATMENT — A new crackdown on social media in prisons threatens to classify inmates who use social media platforms as “high risk,” putting them in the same category as people who fight or damage property in prison. Inmates are prohibited from using cellphones already. But in the last decade, social media accounts often run by family members — or, in the case of higher-profile inmates, an agency — have become essential tools in telling inmates’ stories, sometimes leading to more advocacy for their release on a wrongful conviction or on parole. Now, inmates and their families are trying to fight back on the proposed change to the penal code. Olivia Empson reports for The Guardian. PARTING IMAGE On this date in 1971: Apollo 15 astronauts conduct a practice water landing in the Gulf of Mexico. The voyage ultimately became the fourth to land on the moon. | Ernest Bennett/AP Did someone forward this email to you?  Sign up here .   Follow us on Twitter Charlie Mahtesian @PoliticoCharlie Calder McHugh @calder_mchugh   FOLLOW US

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