Middleboro Review 2: POLITICO NIGHTLY: A too-familiar shock in Texas

Wednesday, May 25, 2022

POLITICO NIGHTLY: A too-familiar shock in Texas

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With help from Tyler Weyant

Law enforcement, and other first responders, gather outside Robb Elementary School following a shooting in Uvalde, Texas. | Dario Lopez-Mills/AP Photo

AGAIN — Mass shootings have become America’s copy and paste tragedy.

We change the place, the town, the number of dead and injured. But the constant is lives lost, people who cannot be brought back, and the nation is left in a numb daze. — Tyler Weyant

Here is the latest on the shooting at an elementary school in Uvalde, Texas, where at least 18 children and three adults are dead:

The details: Texas Gov. Greg Abbott said the suspect, an 18-year-old man who resided in Uvalde, Texas, is also dead and was likely killed by officers who responded to the scene. The shooting happened at Robb Elementary School in Uvalde, about 85 miles west of San Antonio.

“What are we doing?”: Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), a longtime advocate of gun control, urged his Republican colleagues in an impassioned floor speech to finally act to address gun violence: “Why do you spend all this time running for the United States Senate ... if your answer as this slaughter increases, as our kids run for their lives, is we do nothing?”

Biden responds: The president has ordered flags to be flown at half-staff across the country until May 28. He is scheduled to address the nation from the Roosevelt Room of the White House at 8:15 p.m. after returning from his Asia trip. Also of note: The Senate Judiciary Committee will hold a previously scheduled confirmation hearing Wednesday for Biden’s ATF nominee, Steven Dettelbach.

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s author at csuellentrop@politico.com, or on Twitter at @suellentrop.

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp speaks at a campaign event attended by former Vice President Mike Pence at the Cobb County International Airport in Kennesaw, Ga. | Joe Raedle/Getty Images

MAKE ENDORSEMENTS GREAT AGAIN — The Republican midterms in 2022 — there are a bunch more tonight, including in Georgia and Texas — have been a series of tests to determine whether Trumpism can be separated from the person of former President Donald J. Trump.

Trump identified a strain of the Republican Party that was more anti-immigration, more anti-business, more anti-trade, more antiwar and more isolationist than the Reagan tradition that had been dominant for four decades. Based on the kinds of candidates who have been winning so far, there’s no reason to think that the changes Trump introduced in his party are temporary.

And yet, Trump-endorsed candidates keep losing, at least some of the time. David Perdue is expected to be the latest, as he is far behind Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp in tonight’s Republican primary, despite Trump’s enthusiastic backing.

To make sense of this contradiction, Nightly chatted over Slack today with politics editor Scott Bland. This conversation has been edited.

What’s Trump’s scorecard in the midterms so far?

It depends what you want to keep score of. If it's any endorsement he’s given at any point, then his endorsees have won a lot of primaries and lost only a few. But if you look only at the competitive races — where he's not just gliding in to endorse an incumbent on the final day — it's a more mixed bag.

He helped boost J.D. Vance through his Senate primary in Ohio, and he might have helped do the same for Mehmet Oz, though we’re waiting for the results pending a recount in Pennsylvania.

But Trump’s endorsees have also lost primaries for governor in two consecutive weeks now. Trump’s chosen candidate in Nebraska lost on May 10, and then he endorsed the far-right Idaho lieutenant governor in a primary against the sitting governor. The incumbent won big on May 17.

Georgia would be the third. Trump has been furious at Gov. Brian Kemp since the end of 2020 because Kemp certified the election results showing Trump lost. He made the biggest personal investment, in terms of both time and actual money, in Georgia.

What does that record tell us about Trump and the Republican Party? Does the “Big Lie” — the claim that Biden and the Democrats stole the presidency — have fewer adherents than we think? Or does it just mean that endorsements don't matter as much as we journalists pretend they do?

It seems pretty clear that Trump’s endorsement isn’t moving voters to the same degree that it used to, and it looks like that’s especially true in state races for governor. But he’s still the single biggest force in the party. I don't think Vance would have shot up at the end and won in Ohio, for example, if Trump hadn’t picked him.

Trump's false claim that the 2020 election was stolen from him is deeply embedded in the GOP. Most of the candidates in open Republican primaries adhere to it as they try to get their foot in the door. But it's not the only thing Republican voters care about. Kemp is a very conservative Republican governor who can credibly argue that he’s done a jillion other things conservatives wanted.

Has Trump's role in these midterms affected who will win in November in any way? Is the GOP caucus likely to look materially different because of his endorsements? Has he picked anyone who won but is more likely to lose the general than the so-called establishment choice? (It’s a little odd to call the choice of the former president of the United States antiestablishment.)

A number of Republicans think Doug Mastriano, the GOP gubernatorial candidate in Pennsylvania, is essentially unelectable and are upset that Trump endorsed him. But at the same time, Mastriano probably would have won the primary if Trump had stayed out.

Nothing at the congressional level jumps out in the same way, though there were a lot of early concerns among Republicans about Herschel Walker in Georgia. They don't seem to be as worried about his electability now, though it seems like there's always a new story about him overstating his business background or something else in his past.

So there are no Todd Aikens or Christine O'Donnells this cycle for Democrats to pin their Senate-majority hopes on?

Still plenty of time to figure that one out — those primaries were in August and September of their respective election years!

Missouri is a possibility. A number of Republicans have been concerned that Trump could endorse former Gov. Eric Greitens, either because he’d prove unelectable or because they think he'd be a destructive force in the Senate. So look out for that one. Greitens, you may recall, resigned from office as fellow Republicans prepared to impeach him over allegations of sexual assault and blackmail.

What else are you watching tonight?

The Democratic fight in TX-28: the last anti-abortion House Democrat and his primary opponent.

How likely is Rep. Henry Cuellar to survive?

Cuellar and his challenger, Jessica Cisneros, have been on the ballot together twice before. She's run only a few points behind him both times, so it’s fair to call it a toss-up. Cuellar could hardly have picked a worse time to be facing a pro-abortion rights challenger, with the salience of the issue skyrocketing among Democratic voters as the Supreme Court considers overturning Roe v. Wade.

I’m very, very curious to see what happens in that race. Whoever wins, it looks set to be a general election battleground, too.

Want to see tonight’s results? There are plenty of ways to get election tallies and analysis tonight from our newsroom colleagues, including our pages for Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Minnesota and Texas. The ideal second-screen experience is our live chat with campaigns reporters and editors.

A message from Bank of America:

Women in tech making their mark: Two out of three U.S. women say they were not encouraged to pursue a career in STEM, even though research continues to show that, across industries, teams with gender diversity drive success. Three women inventors at Bank of America share how childhood curiosity spurred a lifetime of innovation.

WHAT'D I MISS?

— Supreme Court marshal digs in on Roe opinion leak: The Supreme Court marshal’s probe into the disclosure of a draft opinion on Roe v. Wade is fully in progress, multiple people familiar with the proceedings told POLITICO, carrying out Chief Justice John Roberts’ order to investigate the leak. But questions about the investigation’s scope and process — some emanating from inside the court, these people said — reveal internal frustrations that in recent days have burst out into the open.

— Commission recommends nine new names for Army bases that honor Confederates: The Naming Commission, a panel created by Congress last year to oversee the removal of Confederate names from Defense Department property, has recommended nine new names for Army bases that commemorate Civil War rebel leaders . “The Naming Commission sought to find names that would be inspirational to the Soldiers and civilians who serve on our Army posts, and to the communities who support them,” retired Navy Adm. Michelle Howard, the commission’s chair, said in a statement today.

— CBP bulletin: American fighters headed to Ukraine questioned at U.S. airports: U.S. officials, worried about domestic security issues, have been questioning Americans at airports as they travel to Ukraine to fight Russia , according to an intelligence bulletin reviewed by POLITICO. The document shows that the U.S. government is gathering information about Americans traveling to Ukraine and is interested in their activity after they return. But critics say the focus on “violent extremist-white supremacists” echoes one of the Kremlin’s top propaganda points: that supporting Ukraine means also supporting neo-Nazis.

DON'T MISS DIGITAL FUTURE DAILY - OUR TECHNOLOGY NEWSLETTER, RE-IMAGINED: Technology is always evolving, and our new tech-obsessed newsletter is too! Digital Future Daily unlocks the most important stories determining the future of technology, from Washington to Silicon Valley and innovation power centers around the world. Readers get an in-depth look at how the next wave of tech will reshape civic and political life, including activism, fundraising, lobbying and legislating. Go inside the minds of the biggest tech players, policymakers and regulators to learn how their decisions affect our lives. Don't miss out, subscribe today.

— Seoul: North Korea launches 2 ballistic missiles toward sea: North Korea launched two ballistic missiles toward the sea, South Korea’s military said . The missile firings came three days after the leaders of South Korea and the United States agreed to consider expanded military exercises to deter North Korean nuclear threats during Biden’s visit to Seoul.

— Al Sharpton beckons Elon Musk into Delaware’s craziest court drama: For years, Rev. Al Sharpton has been on the front lines of one of the most bizarre, under-the-radar, quasi-lobbying efforts in Washington: an attempt to overhaul an obscure Delaware business court that wields power over some of the country’s largest corporate transactions. Sharpton has already leaned on the world’s most powerful man — Delaware native Biden — to help the cause of shaking up the Court of Chancery. Now he and the group behind the campaign, Citizens for Judicial Fairness, are turning to the world’s richest man — Elon Musk — for a hand, too.

— Psaki's MSNBC streaming show will launch next year: Former White House press secretary Jen Psaki’s move to MSNBC is official, the network announced today. Psaki will appear on MSNBC’s programming starting in the fall, and will then launch a new streaming show set to premiere on the network in early 2023.

A message from Bank of America:

AROUND THE WORLD

BIDEN KEEPING IRGC ON TERROR LIST — Biden has finalized his decision to keep Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on a terrorist blacklist, according to a senior Western official, further complicating international efforts to restore the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, Alexander Ward and Nahal Toosi write.

Another person familiar with the matter said Biden conveyed his decision during an April 24 phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, adding that the decision was conveyed as absolutely final and that the window for Iranian concessions had closed.

After their conversation, Bennett said in a statement: “I am sure that President Biden, who is a true friend of Israel and cares about its security, will not allow the IRGC to be removed from the list of terrorist organizations.” The White House’s readout said the two leaders spoke about “the threat posed by Iran and its proxies.”

The United States placed the IRGC on its “Foreign Terrorist Organizations” list in 2019. The designation was part of the “maximum pressure” campaign then-President Donald Trump imposed on Iran after pulling the United States out of the nuclear deal, which had restricted Iran’s nuclear activity in exchange for sanctions relief.

Israel has long been among the most vocal foreign governments in opposing the removal of the Iranian military branch from the terrorism list and the continuation of the nuclear agreement.

NIGHTLY NUMBER

16.6 percent

The fall in new-home sales last month from the revised March figures , according to Census Bureau data released today. Sales were down 26.9 percent from April 2021.

HAPPENING WEDNESDAY—A WOMEN RULE TALK ON THE MIDTERMS : Join POLITICO’S Women Rule for a conversation with the women running the midterm campaigns and how they are shaping messaging and strategy for their candidates. The program will look into what a win for either party could mean for access to reproductive health care, economic advancement of women, and how the final stages of the Covid-19 pandemic are managed. REGISTER HERE.

PARTING WORDS

DENY OF THE TIGER — EU agriculture ministers discussed today whether to ban the trade and keeping of exotic species such as tigers, alligators or chimpanzees, following the proposition of a new EU law by Cyprus, Lithuania, Luxembourg and Malta, Jakob Hanke Vela writes.

In a joint paper, the countries call for a “concise catalog of animals that can be kept as pets, providing clarity to pet owners and government officials.” The sale and keeping of a species not included on that list would be automatically banned across the bloc.

The paper estimates Europeans are privately keeping around 100 million pets that are not dogs or cats. “Many of these species were captured from the wild, depleting natural populations and leading to loss of biodiversity,” it reads.

While the move is likely to be welcomed by animal welfare activists, it will cause concern among tiger kings across the EU: According to animal welfare group Four Paws, private tiger-keeping is legal in countries including Germany, France, Spain, Ireland and the Czech Republic.

A message from Bank of America:

The impact of women-led innovation on the world is undeniable—from everyday items like the paper coffee filter and windshield wipers to complex technologies such as frequency-hopping mobile technology and computer compiler language.

But even as women continue to make significant progress toward parity in the broader workplace, technology-related industries are lagging, by most metrics. Women account for 47% of the U.S. workforce, but only hold 26% of computing-related positions.

Volumes of research continue to show that, across all industries, teams with gender as well as racial diversity drive better financial performance and are more successful.

Watch three inventors at Bank of America as they share what drives their creativity and how bringing together diverse perspectives can inspire more equitable solutions.