Wednesday, June 5, 2024

POLITICO Nightly: How Trump forced Biden’s hand

 

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BY CALDER MCHUGH

Presented by Citi

President Joe Biden delivers remarks on an executive order limiting asylum. A screen behind him reads "SECURING OUR BORDER."

President Joe Biden delivers remarks on an executive order limiting asylum in the East Room of the White House. | Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

RESHAPING THE POLICY DEBATES — The Biden era began amid talk of a more humane border policy and a rollback of Trump policies, not just on immigration but on trade and a range of other policy areas.

But that was a different time, and Joe Biden was a different president. Never was it clearer than today, when Biden signed the most restrictive immigration order of any modern Democrat, setting the stage for much of the southern border to close at midnight.

After taking a pounding from Trump over immigration and flailing on the issue in the polls, the Biden administration will seal the U.S.’s southern border entirely once illegal crossings reach 2,500 people per day. And with daily totals already exceeding that number within the past week, it will go into effect right away. The border will only re-open to asylum seekers after the number of illegal crossings dips under 1,500 per day for a sustained period of time.

The severe regulations are similar in scope to former President Donald Trump’s November 2018 decision to suspend asylum rights on the southern border, an initiative that was ultimately blocked in court .

It’s the latest reminder of former President Donald Trump’s success in reframing the political debate around hot-button issues — and Biden’s need to reshape administration policy in response.

Even at a time when Trump should be at his weakest, on the heels of his hush money conviction on 34 counts, Biden’s diminished position in the polls has forced a more reactive approach.

Despite years of debate within the Biden administration, they’ve largely kept the massive Trump tariffs on China in place out of fear of providing Trump with an opening to attack. The political imperatives are not just Biden’s own: A group of Midwestern Senate Democrats, joined by Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, sent a letter to Biden in early May asking him to raise tariffs even further on China.

In response, Biden announced targeted increases of some of the China tariffs, including on electric vehicles, semiconductors and some steel and aluminum products. It might be a more targeted approach than his predecessor, but it still underscores that the trade war with China has only escalated since Biden came into office.

The need to placate the industrial Midwest — and maintain the integrity of the Blue Wall that is Biden’s best shot at reelection — colors other Trump-adjacent Biden policies. When Japan-based Nippon Steel announced the purchase of U.S. Steel in December for over $14 billion, it could have been a chance for Biden to take a victory lap . His infrastructure package and Inflation Reduction Act turned U.S. Steel from a husk of what it once was back into an asset worth billions. Instead, though, fears of a Japanese company buying an American institution — and Trump’s promise to block the deal — led Biden to announce his opposition to the deal months after Trump did.

At the heart of these policies is a political vulnerability on the issues polls suggest are of greatest concern to voters — such as border security and the economy. According to Gallup, a plurality of Americans believe immigration is the most important facing the country today. A new Marquette Law School poll shows voters trust Trump more on immigration and border security by a whopping 27 points. Voters trust Trump more on the economy by 21 points.

It’s a far cry from 2021, when Biden took office fresh off a thorough popular-vote whipping of Trump and the flipping of five key swing states across the Midwest and the Sun Belt. Today, Biden trails Trump in most national polls and all across the swing state landscape. That political reality has led to the implementation of policies — from imposing further tariffs on Chinese goods to protecting U.S. manufacturing from foreign competition to border security — that wouldn’t have been out of place in Trump’s first term.

Biden, of course, has plenty of areas of vast disagreement with Republicans. His administration insists that their immigration regulations are different from Trump’s ; a senior administration official said about Biden’s immigration order, “There are several differences between the actions that we are taking today and Trump-era policies. The Trump administration attacked almost every facet of the immigration system and did so in a shameful and inhumane way.”

Even some Democrats, though, are conflating the two. “We should be distinguishing ourselves from Donald Trump on immigration,” Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), the chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, said. “We should be offering the contrast.”

The contrast is likely to become clearer now that Trump is no longer confined to a Manhattan courtroom and can spend more time on the campaign trail. He’s already promising even more radical policy departures on trade and immigration.

And if that’s the case, and Biden’s pivot toward Trumpism helps lock down Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — or perhaps insulates him in Arizona, where a possible ballot measure on immigration could put the issue front and center — many of his critics inside the party will likely forgive him.

Even if one plank of his immigration platform looks a lot like part of Trump’s first go at the issue.

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at cmchugh@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @calder_mchugh .

A message from Citi:

The world of cross-border payments is at an inflection point. Amid shifting client demands and an unprecedented rates environment, the global payments ecosystem is rapidly transforming. As payments move away from traditional methods toward application programming interface (API) connectivity, new technologies have the power to transform cross-border payments for the benefit of all. Access in-depth analysis from Citi on what the future landscape might entail in the Citi GPS Report, Future of Cross-Border Payments.

 
WHAT'D I MISS?

— GOP senators urge RNC to back off Hogan: Republicans are moving to head off a long-term war between Larry Hogan and former President Donald Trump’s allies , including the RNC, as Hogan faces one of the toughest ticket-splitting efforts in modern politics. Hogan’s request for Americans to respect the verdict of Trump’s criminal trial — before the conviction was even announced — elicited harsh criticism from RNC co-chair Lara Trump, raising the specter of a long-term rift between top rungs of the party and the GOP’s star recruit in Maryland, a state where Republicans haven’t won a Senate race since 1980. “It’s a horrible mistake. I think they should back off,” said Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), no stranger to rifts in her own party after surviving a Trump-backed challenge two years ago.

— Prosecutors open their case against Hunter Biden by playing his own voice for the jury: Prosecutors at Hunter Biden’s trial on gun-related charges urged jurors today not to show sympathy or favoritism for him because he happens to be the son of President Joe Biden , while the defense suggested the case was belatedly charged and overblown. “No one is above the law,” prosecutor Derek Hines declared at the outset of his opening statement. “It doesn’t matter who you are or what your name is, because in this country the law applies to everyone equally. … That law makes no distinction between Hunter Biden and anybody else.”

— House approves bill hitting International Criminal Court for Israel warrants: The House has passed legislation aimed at sanctioning the International Criminal Court for pursuing arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other officials in his government. The vote was 247-155, with 42 Democrats supporting the bill and 2 Republicans voting present. The Biden administration said in a statement it “strongly opposes” the bill and believes “there are more effective ways to defend Israel” during its ongoing war in Gaza but did not expressly threaten a veto.

 

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NIGHTLY ROAD TO 2024

CHARGED UP — Kenneth Chesebro, an architect of Donald Trump’s scheme to subvert the 2020 election, has been charged with felony forgery in Wisconsin , court records show.

Chesebro, who developed a strategy to send false slates of presidential electors — and to use them to stoke a conflict on Jan. 6, 2021 aimed at blocking Joe Biden’s Electoral College victory — was charged alongside Jim Troupis, a 2020 Trump campaign lawyer, and Mike Roman, a former Trump campaign operative.

The 26-page complaint dated June 3 relies primarily on text messages and documents obtained from Chesebro, who interviewed with investigators in December. It accuses the three men of conspiring to send “unappointed” electors to Washington.

 

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AROUND THE WORLD

An onlooker throws a drink in the face of Nigel Farage during his general election campaign launch in Clacton-on-Sea.

An onlooker throws a drink in the face of Nigel Farage during his general election campaign launch in Clacton-on-Sea. | Ben Stansall/AFP via Getty Images

MILKSHAKE DUCK — Leading Brexiteer Nigel Farage drew big crowds as he launched his latest bid to become a British Member of Parliament — but not everyone was impressed.

Police arrested a woman on suspicion of assault after Farage was pelted with a milkshake today as he spoke with voters in the seaside town of Clacton. He’s hoping to become a member of parliament there on July 4.

Farage — who rocked England Monday by u-turning and announcing he will stand in Britain’s election as leader of the right-wing Reform Party — was hit with the drink as he exited a Wetherspoons pub.

ESCALATION THREATS — Russia responded with a new threat of escalation today to reports that France could soon send trainers to help the Ukrainian military.

“No instructor involved in training the Ukrainian military has immunity,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told the press according to a report from French newswire AFP.

“It doesn’t matter whether they’re French or not,” Peskov added.

Last week, Ukraine’s top commander Oleksandr Syrskyi said French trainers would come to Ukraine “soon,” a statement which was downplayed at the time both in Paris and Kyiv.

 

JOIN US ON 6/12 FOR A TALK ON THE AIRLINE INDUSTRY : As air travel soars again, policymakers and airlines are grappling with a series of contemporary challenges to the industry's future. Join POLITICO on June 12 for a topical and timely conversation with government leaders and aviation stakeholders about the state of the airline industry. From what passengers want to what airlines need amid the high demand for air traffic, workers and technology solutions. What can Washington do to ensure passengers and providers are equipped to fly right? REGISTER HERE .

 
 
NIGHTLY NUMBER

285

The number of seats that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s National Democratic Alliance coalition has won in parliament , more than the 272 needed for a majority but fewer than expected, according to official results from India’s Election Commission. The party is leading in one race yet to be called.

RADAR SWEEP

GUTTER BALL — If you’ve been to a bowling alley lately, there’s a decent chance it’s operated by Bowlero, a conglomerate of private equity-backed entertainment centers that has been snapping up bowling alleys around the country. They offer a cleaner, better version of the classic local, run down alley. But underneath some new amenities, it’s become clear the company is rife with problems — a self-interested CEO, debt piling up, some toxic workplace allegations and more. For The Lever, Amos Barshad explores how this organization has made a beloved national pastime worse.

PARTING IMAGE

On this date in 1995: Radio talk show host G. Gordon Liddy, who organized the burglary of the DNC at the Watergate hotel, addresses a pro-gun 2nd Amendment rally in front of the Lincoln Memorial.

On this date in 1995: Radio talk show host G. Gordon Liddy, who organized the burglary of the DNC at the Watergate hotel, addresses a pro-gun 2nd Amendment rally in front of the Lincoln Memorial. | Joe Marquette/AP

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A message from Citi:

The world of cross-border payments is at an inflection point. Amid technological advancements, shifting client demands, and an unprecedented rates environment, the global payments ecosystem is rapidly transforming.

Payments are moving away from traditional instruction methods, which are tied to batch and files, and moving toward application programming interface (API) connectivity. The evolving landscape is also driven by changing behaviors and heightened expectations, with consumers seeking a streamlined, transparent, 24x7 real-time experience, both domestically and across borders.

Best-in-class client experiences leveraging new technologies can address key pain points and have the potential to transform cross-border payments for the benefit of all.

Access in-depth analysis from Citi on what the future landscape might look like in the Citi GPS Report, Future of Cross-Border Payments.

 
 

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Calder McHugh @calder_mchugh

 

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