POLITICO NIGHTLY: The longshot Republican betting big on Trump fatigue

 

View in browser   BY DAVID SIDERS Presented by Action Now Initiative Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson speaks at the Vision ’24 National Conservative Forum in Charleston, South Carolina. | Win McNamee/Getty Images DARK HORSE — The Republican women who hosted Asa Hutchinson at an Orange County golf club on Wednesday had all sorts of questions for the former Arkansas governor and likely presidential candidate. But for the fourth or fifth straight meeting since he arrived in California this week, even he was surprised that nobody asked about the biggest story going in the GOP — the expected indictment of Donald Trump. There are several possible reasons. It could be that Hutchinson, a relative unknown, isn’t really seen by Republican activists as a serious contender. Or it could be that far from Washington, there are simply other things on Republicans’ minds. Non-stop news about a potential indictment, said Elaine Gennawey, vice president of the Laguna Niguel Republican Women Federated, the group that met with Hutchinson, is a “distraction.” But to Hutchinson, who has called for Trump to drop out of the race if he is indicted , the lack of questioning was evidence of something more. “It just illustrates the fact,” he said, “while there’s an appreciation for a lot of what happened during the Trump administration, people are ready to move on.” There’s conflicting evidence among Republicans, at least, about whether this is true. Trump remains the frontrunner in the presidential primary, and recent polls suggest his grip on the contest, if anything, is tightening . An indictment may be deeply problematic for Trump in a general election. But it probably won’t hurt him with the “Always Trump ” set in the primary. In a race dominated by Trump and the similarly MAGA-powered governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis, there hasn’t been much room for anyone else. Outspoken critics of the former president, like former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, have looked at the dynamics of the race and taken a pass. But not Hutchinson, who appears to be edging toward a campaign, with a likely announcement next month. “I think my lane’s getting bigger,” he told Nightly. “It’s the non-Trump lane. Not an anti-Trump lane, but a non-Trump lane.” Hutchinson, to put it mildly, is a longshot. Survey Republican strategists, as Nightly has, and you’ll get reactions like, “Nooooo,” “Nice guy. I just don’t see that dog hunting much,” or “Who the fuck is Asa Hutchinson?” But whether Hutchinson or someone else, the real question is if there is an opening for any Trump-critical candidate in 2024 . Sitting on a sun-splashed patio at the golf club, Hutchinson said, “I think that there’s a growing recognition that we need alternatives to Donald Trump.” Electorally, that might make sense for the GOP, after Trump’s defeat in 2020 and a midterm in which high-profile, Trumpian candidates lost races in competitive states. Republicans, Hutchinson told the GOP women in San Juan Capistrano, should keep in mind that a general election is not a primary, with a whole different swath of voters the party will need to win over. Republicans, he said, should use rhetoric that doesn’t turn off voters. It should look forward, not back, and demonstrate that the GOP is the “party of ideas.” The problem for Hutchinson and Republicans like him is that the coarser way of doing things isn’t so easy to let go. On his way out, the group gave Hutchinson a bottle of wine as a gift. On the label of the 2013 Merlot was printed “Let’s Go Brandon ” — not one of the party’s most aspirational refrains. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at dsiders@politico.com or on Twitter at @davidsiders .   A message from Action Now Initiative: Protecting our seniors means protecting Medicare. Each year, big insurance companies abuse Medicare Advantage by overcharging seniors and taxpayers by billions. Now, there is a proposal to crack down on fraud and waste by insurance companies in Medicare Advantage. It’s a start – but it’s not enough. We can’t afford to wait. We already know the price of a delay – $23 billion in 2023 alone. Congress: Stop fraud and abuse. Protect our seniors and their benefits.   WHAT'D I MISS? Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer. | Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images — Michigan strikes right-to-work law detested by unions: In a major victory for labor unions, Michigan today became the first state in more than half a century to repeal a right-to-work law . Gov. Gretchen Whitmer signed legislation passed by the Democratic-controlled Legislature, overturning a 2012 GOP law that allowed workers to choose not to join unions or pay union dues as a condition of employment, even if the union represents them in negotiations. — U.S. launches airstrikes in Syria after drone kills U.S. worker: A strike yesterday by a suspected Iranian-made drone killed a U.S. contractor and wounded five American troops and another contractor in northeast Syria , the Pentagon said. American forces said they retaliated soon after with “precision airstrikes” in Syria targeting facilities used by groups affiliated with Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, with activist groups saying they killed at least four people.   OIN POLITICO ON 4/5 FOR THE 2023 RECAST POWER LIST: America’s demographics and power dynamics are changing — and POLITICO is recasting how it covers the intersection of race, identity, politics and policy. Join us for a conversation on the themes of the 2023 Recast Power List that will examine America’s decision-making tables, who gets to sit at them, and the challenges that still need to be addressed. REGISTER HERE .     NIGHTLY ROAD TO 2024 COLD SHOULDER — As Ron DeSantis emerges as a prospective rival for the Republican nomination, Donald’s Trump campaign has put word out that anyone who works for the Florida governor will be blackballed. RealClearPolitics reports that Justin Caporale, who helps lead the advance team for the former president, has said that anyone who staffed a recent DeSantis book tour will be considered “persona non grata.” A top Trump ally was more comprehensive, telling RealClearPolitics that the prohibition would apply to more than just the junior aides tasked with setting up folding chairs and hanging banners. “It’s a time for choosing,” the source close to the former president said. “If you work for Ron DeSantis’ presidential race, you will not work for the Trump campaign or in the Trump White House.” BLOC BUSTER — Trump’s relationship with the evangelical movement—once seemingly shatterproof, then shaky after his violent departure from the White House—is now in pieces, thanks to his social-media tirade last fall blaming pro-lifers for the Republicans’ lackluster midterm performance. Numerous other Republicans are preparing to make a play for conservative Christian voters, according to the Atlantic’s Tim Alberta . What unites these efforts is a common recognition that, for the first time since he secured the GOP nomination in 2016, Trump has a serious problem with a crucial bloc of his coalition.   A message from Action Now Initiative:     AROUND THE WORLD CANDY CRUSHED — France will prevent civil servants from downloading all types of social media platforms , gaming and video-streaming apps on their work phones because of cybersecurity and privacy concerns, according to a statement released today, writes Laura Kayali . The ban, which is effective immediately, includes TikTok but is not limited to the Chinese-owned platform. France's move follows bans by European institutions and other EU countries such as the Netherlands. Unlike Brussels and The Hague, however, the French government also targets Western apps and platforms from Europe and the United States. "These recreational applications are not designed to guarantee a sufficient level of cybersecurity to be deployed on the administration's digital tools," said Digital Minister Jean-Noël Barrot. "TikTok, but also CandyCrush or Netflix are affected by this measure." SEND MORE AMMO — Germany has fallen short in supporting Ukraine , Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki told POLITICO, lashing out at Berlin as Europe searches for ways to continue arming Kyiv., writes Lili Bayer and Jacopo Barigazzi . In an interview following the EU leaders’ summit in Brussels, the conservative Polish leader said the EU’s biggest economy must step up and lead — part of a broader call he made for the EU and NATO to revise their spending rules and unleash massive military investments. Germany should be “sending more weapons, sending more ammunition, and giving more money to Ukraine, because they are the richest and the biggest country by far,” he said. “They were not as generous as they should have been,” the Polish prime minister said. “I still encourage them to do so.” Poland, which leads the EU in military support to Ukraine, has joined with eastern capitals to repeatedly push western countries on their own aid for Kyiv. And while powerhouse countries like Germany and France note they have given Ukraine considerable stockpiles of arms, vehicles and money, their efforts have still left some eastern counterparts unmoved.   DOWNLOAD THE POLITICO MOBILE APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. The sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don’t miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. DOWNLOAD FOR iOS – DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID .     NIGHTLY NUMBER 3,000 The number of hectares (equivalent to around 7,400 acres) engulfed as a forest fire raged in Spain’s eastern Castellon province today, causing 1,500 people to be evacuated and 18 water-dropping planes and helicopters, as well as 500 firefighters and soldiers, to be deployed to attack the growing flames. The fire signifies an earlier than normal beginning to Spain’s fire season amidst dry conditions and high temperatures. Last year was the hottest on record in Spain, and fires burned through area about four times the size of New York City. This year, major fires have begun even earlier. RADAR SWEEP UNCANCEL CULTURE — Just about everything is a subscription these days. And sometimes, those subscriptions are difficult to cancel — by design. In fact, sneaky companies know the more difficult they make it to stop paying for their services, the more cash they can take in from people who don’t know they were signed up for a paid service in the first place. That could soon change. In fact, the Federal Trade Commission recently announced that it is proposing a “click to cancel” rule, which would compel businesses to make it as easy to sign off as it was to sign up . If the rule gets approved, say goodbye to handwritten letters, in-person visits, or waiting on hold for hours to cancel. Read Sara Morrison ’s report in Vox into the end of the era of impossible subscription cancellations. PARTING IMAGE On this day in 1958: Elvis Presley (right) indicating he had no sleep the night before reporting to his local Memphis draft board for military service. Presley, already a famous musician, spent two years in the army. | AP Photo Did someone forward this email to you?  Sign up here .   A message from Action Now Initiative: Insurance company fraud and abuse in Medicare Advantage costs seniors and taxpayers billions.  Medicare Advantage plans ensure seniors have a choice of health coverage options. But many federal lawsuits, audits, and investigations have proven that big insurance companies offering Medicare Advantage plans have systematically overcharged seniors and taxpayers by billions of dollars each year. MedPAC estimates that insurers’ abusive billing practices will cost taxpayers $23 billion in 2023 alone. Now, there’s a proposal to start cracking down on insurance company overcharges in Medicare Advantage. It is an important first step, but it does not go far enough. We can’t afford to wait. We already know the price of a delay – $23 billion in taxpayer dollars projected this year. Congress: Stop the fraud and abuse in Medicare Advantage. Protect our seniors and their benefits.     Follow us on Twitter Charlie Mahtesian @PoliticoCharlie Calder McHugh @calder_mchugh Katherine Long @katherinealong Ari Hawkins @_AriHawkins   FOLLOW US

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