POLITICO NIGHTLY: These 3 states will decide the Senate

 

BY BURGESS EVERETT

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With help from Renuka Rayasam and Myah Ward THE UPPER CHAMBER’S BOTTOM LINE — A lot of Democrats are excited about a Senate map that’s expanded deep into Republican territory: Alaska, South Carolina and Kansas. But the battle for Senate control is still mostly where we thought it would be six months ago. Maine, Iowa and North Carolina are where the tipping points are. If Democrats sweep or take two out of three, Chuck Schumer is almost certain to be majority leader provided Joe Biden defeats President Donald Trump. But if Democrats falter in those battlegrounds, it’s gonna be a good night for Mitch McConnell. Three races are widely considered out of reach: The Democrats expect to beat GOP senators in Colorado and Arizona, and the Republicans are confident they will beat Doug Jones in Alabama. McConnell currently controls 53 seats, so to get to 50 Schumer would need at least two more races to break his way as well as hold Michigan. And there is ample evidence that could happen. But Maine, Iowa and North Carolina simply aren’t gimmes. Susan Collins is probably the underdog in Maine, but a raft of late money and talk of private polls showing the race is tied mean both parties think it’s competitive. Most polls have shown Democratic challenger Sara Gideon up by 4 or 5 points, but forecasters are rating the race a toss-up. The state uses ranked-choice voting if no one gets to 50 percent — and that looks like a real possibility. That’s likely to benefit Gideon, said Dan Shea, head of Colby College’s government department who works on the college’s polls. In North Carolina Thom Tillis looked nearly done 45 days ago, until his Democratic opponent Cal Cunningham copped to an affair with a veteran. Tillis went on the attack and Cunningham is far less visible than he was before. The race has tightened significantly since, with Cunningham leading the RealClearPolitics polling average by just 1.6 points. GOP Senate candidate Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst speaks at a campaign event at Big Al’s BBQ restaurant during her “Fighting for Iowa” RV Tour in Adel, Iowa. | Getty Images Joni Ernst’s Iowa was one of Trump’s strongest battlegrounds in 2016, and Democrat Theresa Greenfield hasn’t put her away. Ernst outpaced expectations significantly in her 2014 debut. Greenfield’s up by a couple points, according to RCP averages. This race isn’t over. So while looking at whether Lindsey Graham survives in South Carolina, or whether Jon Ossoff can oust David Perdue without a runoff in Georgia, or if an anti-Trump wave could crash into Alaska Republican Dan Sullivan is certainly a fun way to spend your weekend, the Big Three is where the battle for control is probably going to be decided. That being said, there’s a lot more upside for Democrats on Election Day. A good night for the GOP probably means holding a 51-seat Senate majority next year. A bad night for the Republicans might put the Democrats in the mid-50s. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. This movie trailer is not what we need right now. Reach out at beverett@politico.com or rrayasam@politico.com, or on Twitter at @burgessev or @renurayasam. A message from Walmart: When customer needs adapted rapidly in the spring of 2020, Walmart's U.S. suppliers like Joa adapted to get customers and associates facemasks when they needed it most. Learn more about Walmart’s commitment to U.S. products and jobs.   FIRST IN NIGHTLY SCOOP: PENCE'S LONG ABSENCE FROM TASK FORCE — As the country heads into a third spike of Covid cases, the most widespread to date, the White House’s coronavirus task force has vanished from the scene . Vice President Mike Pence, charged with leading the task force, hasn’t attended a standing call with all 50 governors aimed at closely coordinating the nation’s pandemic fight in more than a month, write Adam Cancryn and Dan Goldberg. He will be touting the administration’s pandemic response on the campaign trail rather than attend this Friday’s call as well. The group hasn’t held a collective press briefing in months. Inside the West Wing, task force members’ growing alarm over the virus’ resurgence has gone largely ignored. And among health officials on the front lines, there is mounting consensus that the federal government has little new aid to offer — leaving states to face the pandemic’s third and potentially worst wave increasingly on their own. Trump made clear early on that despite creating the task force, his administration would not coordinate a national response. Most states have long since set up their own supply lines and procedures instead. In recent months, the White House has only pivoted further away from leading a comprehensive effort — embracing a narrower approach that prioritizes protecting the elderly and vulnerable populations while otherwise pushing for the country’s broader reopening and pouring efforts into developing a vaccine. Still, health officials say the contrast between the White House’s view and the pandemic reality is increasingly jarring — especially as task force members themselves voice dire worries about the surge. TRANSITION 2020 SECRETARY WARREN? Elizabeth Warren wants to be Joe Biden’s Treasury secretary and will make her case for it if he wins next week, three Democratic officials who have spoken with her inner circle told Alex Thompson and Megan Casella. “She wants it,” two of them said matter-of-factly. Warren’s interest could set up the marquee fight between the party’s left and its center for a Cabinet role in a Biden administration. The Treasury Department will be tasked with steering the U.S. economy out of a deep recession, even as the country continues to struggle with the coronavirus pandemic. Other leading contenders for the Treasury slot include Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard; Sarah Bloom Raskin, a former Treasury Department official; and Roger Ferguson, former Federal Reserve vice chairman and current CEO of financial services giant TIAA.   SUBSCRIBE TO TRANSITION PLAYBOOK: We're excited to launch a newsletter written for insiders that will track the appointments, the people, and the power centers of the next administration. Both Team Biden and Team Trump have been working behind the scenes for months vetting potential nominees and drafting policy agendas. Transition Playbook takes you inside those preparations, personnel decisions, and policy deliberations. Don't miss out, subscribe today. ASK THE AUDIENCE Nightly asks you: What is the most important issue no one is talking about in the 2020 elections? Use our form to send in your answer, and we’ll include select responses in our Friday edition.       COVID-2020 THE LONG DECEMBER — Whether Trump is sworn in for a second term, or Biden takes over the White House on Jan. 20, the next president is expected to be facing the worst days of the pandemic alongside a nation that’s fed up with Covid restrictions. By the time inauguration day rolls around, the country could have nearly 300,000 new daily cases and 2,000 daily deaths, based on the current virus trajectory, according to the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. That compares to the roughly 80,000 daily cases and 1,000 daily deaths recorded Wednesday. By Feb. 1, the IHME model projects the U.S. virus death toll could rise to 385,611 deaths. Nightly’s Myah Ward talked with public health experts about why this winter could feel like the early days of the pandemic all over again. It’s still a novel virus, said Marynia Kolak, assistant director of population health informatics at The University of Chicago. Yes, the medical community is better at treating patients, but there is concern about new, unfamiliar strains of the virus. “The genetic epidemiology of this is constantly changing,” Kolak said. As soon as people feel they can make a definitive statement about Covid, Kolak said, “the whole map changes.” Winter is Covid’s season, and people are spending more time indoors, making it easier for the virus to circulate. And a vaccine won’t be ready in time, said Ali Mokdad, chief strategy officer of population health at the University of Washington. “Keep in mind, the flu vaccine, we need it now. If somebody takes the flu vaccine in April, we’re already past the season. That’s what’s happening right now. Covid seasonality is going to hit us in December and January, like flu,” he said. The holidays are coming, and it’s hitting at a time of pandemic fatigue. Kolak just broke the news to her family that she would be celebrating the holidays virtually. Many of her family members weren’t on board, and this will be a common feeling across the country. There were spikes after Memorial Day, July 4, and Labor Day, but the winter holidays — Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Year’s — are an especially perfect recipe for a Covid outbreak. “That kind of gathering, that kind of traveling, that being together with large groups of people indoors, sharing food, sharing meals, those are activities that can increase the risk of Covid transmission,” said Lauren Ancel Meyers, director of the University of Texas Covid-19 Modeling Consortium. “People have a false sense of assurance. ‘Nobody has any symptoms, these are people I know and love and trust, and so I feel comfortable being with them.’” When cases do rise, leaders won’t have the resources to battle the outbreak. Nancy Pelosi gave another vague timeline for Covid relief today, suggesting a deal could be reached before the new year. “The elephant in the room is the lack of policy support,” Kolak said. “That’s the sort of thing that I’m really concerned about. We can’t combat this without some support for businesses and individuals. It’s just not possible.” And it’s not just about stimulus. The fear of a surge straining hospitals and ICUs is lurking. “If you look at the states like Idaho, Utah, states that don’t have a large capacity for ICU, they will overwhelm their ICU capacity sometime in early December,” Mokdad said. THE HORSE RACE DOWN THE STRETCH THEY COME — Here’s the latest polling: — Biden holds a 7-point lead over Trump in Pennsylvania, according to a Quinnipiac poll released today. — In Florida, Biden holds a 4- to 6-point lead over Trump, according to the Monmouth University survey . The gap grew by 1 point under a likely voter model of high turnout and shrank by one point under a likely voter model of low turnout. — In a separate NBC News/Marist poll poll, Biden leads Trump in Florida by 4 points, earning the support of more than half of likely voters surveyed in the nation’s largest swing state, but within the poll’s margin of error. FROM THE HEALTH DESK VIRAL CAMPAIGN — Never before has a health emergency cast such a shadow over a presidential race. In the latest POLITICO Dispatch, with just five days until Nov. 3, health care reporter Dan Diamond — who’s been tracking the pandemic from the start — breaks down the key differences between Trump’s and Biden’s plans for tackling Covid. Listen to the latest POLITICO Dispatch podcast FOUR SQUARE ZOOMING TOWARD TUESDAY — Eugene Daniels, Tim Alberta, Laura Barrón-López and Ryan Lizza are joined by POLITICO editor Carrie Budoff Brown in the latest episode of Four Square, where they discuss the historic number of early voters, the feeling on the ground in Texas and the Midwest, and how POLITICO will handle election night. AROUND THE NATION SOUTHERN SUBTERFUGE — Bill Bledsoe, the third-party candidate in the hotly contested Senate race between GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham and Democrat Jaime Harrison, has a message for South Carolinians: Don’t vote for me. Harrison’s campaign and several Democratic outside groups opposing Graham have elevated Bledsoe in TV ads this month, in an effort to siphon off conservative voters who may be dissatisfied with Graham, potentially boosting Harrison’s chances against the three-term senator in the deep red state. It’s not an unusual tactic to elevate third-party candidates in tight races, where just a few percentage points could make the difference. Public polling this month has shown the race to be highly competitive, senior campaigns reporter James Arkin writes. But the effort in South Carolina has come after Bledsoe suspended his campaign on Oct. 1 — too late to be removed from the ballot — and endorsed Graham. Graham’s campaign released an open letter from Bledsoe today condemning the effort to try to win him votes. “I am no longer running for the U.S. Senate, and any effort to encourage people to support me is deceptive, underhanded and wrong,” Bledsoe said. A NEWSLETTER FOCUSED ON GLOBAL HEALTH: At a high-stakes moment when global health has become a household concern, it is pivotal to keep up with the politics and policy creating change. Global Pulse connects leaders, policymakers, and advocates to the people and politics driving global health. Join the conversation and subscribe today for this new weekly newsletter.     THE GLOBAL FIGHT GERMAN LOCKDOWN OPPONENTS CLAIM BLAST — Opponents of the German government’s coronavirus restrictions claimed responsibility for an explosion in Berlin last weekend, several German media outlets reported today, citing police sources. On Sunday morning, a homemade explosive device went off at the entrance of a house in central Berlin, Laurenz Gehrke writes. A witness heard a bang and saw a flame that quickly went out, according to the police. No one was injured. Police found a confession letter at the scene, Der Spiegel and Tagesspiegel report. The letter demands the resignation of Germany’s federal government, new elections and the end of all coronavirus-related restrictions, and threatens that more attacks will follow if the demands are not met, according to Der Spiegel. NIGHTLY NUMBER 1.92 percent New York City’s positive test rate, based on a seven-day average, the highest number in weeks and the first time the metric has seen a “meaningful jump” since the city began tracking it in September, according to Mayor Bill de Blasio. The one-day rate was even higher, at 2.7 percent. PARTING WORDS GAMER IN CHIEF — In 2016, Hillary Clinton tried to jump on the bandwagon of the hit mobile game Pokémon Go by telling a crowd she wanted to see “Pokémon Go to the polls.” The result: relentlessly mockery from the Twitterati for an inauthentic attempt to reach out to an incredibly large subset of Americans: video game players. Four years later, in the closing days of a presidential contest, Biden is taking another crack at reaching gamers, writes Morning Score author Zach Montellaro. He emails the Nightly: Biden does not seem like much of a gamer. He once called an unnamed game developer, who described violent video games as the work of artists, “a little creep” during an interview last year with The New York Times editorial board. But his team has made a concerted effort to reach players, recently launching an advertising campaign targeted toward them. On both Reddit and YouTube, a Biden campaign ad, targeted towards eSports and gaming communities, features a pixelated version of the Democratic nominee racing to the White House. Biden has also run sponsored content on IGN, one of the largest video game news sites, both on the site’s social media channels and by sponsoring its coverage of the pending release of the newest models of Sony’s PlayStation and Microsoft’s Xbox. The campaign has also been active on the latest installment of Nintendo’s Animal Crossing, where players can visit a digital HQ set up by the Biden team. But Biden isn’t just targeting stereotypical gamers. The campaign launched gamified ads through Tapjoy, which serves up ads to players of mobile games, aimed at battleground states. This is not a niche audience. A 2017 Pew study found that 43 percent of American adults said they either often or sometimes played video games. The group skews younger and more male than the general population — but a majority of Americans between 18 and 49 said they play games. For every person playing a hypercompetitive shooter like Apex Legends (guilty), there’s scores more passing the time with something like a match-three puzzle game. This isn’t the first foray by a presidential campaign into video game advertising. Former President Barack Obama’s campaign ran ads in games back in 2008, including inside the racing game Burnout Paradise, where players drove past Obama’s digital billboards. A message from Walmart: Walmart has committed $250 billion to products made, grown and assembled in America, helping to create an estimated one million new jobs in communities around the country. Learn more.   Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here.   Follow us on Twitter Renuka Rayasam @renurayasam Chris Suellentrop @suellentrop Tyler Weyant @tweyant Myah Ward @myahward   FOLLOW US  POLITICO, LLC 1000 Wilson Blvd. Arlington, VA, 22209, USA