POLITICO NIGHTLY: Shifting politics

By Renuka Rayasam, David Siders and Ryan Heath

Presented by

ADVANTAGE INCUMBENT? — The coronavirus is laying waste to the presidential primary, postponing elections and canceling traditional campaign activities as a fearful nation hunkers down. And then there's the general election. The conventional wisdom is that President Donald Trump's uneven, and at times chaotic, handling of this crisis is deeply problematic for his reelection chances. But it may not be that simple. So far, Trump has taken a beating. The economy is tanking, and just 46 percent of Americans believe the federal government is doing enough to confront coronavirus, down from 61 percent last month, according to an NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll . Few people trust what Trump is saying about the pandemic, the same poll found. But Trump has time on his side, with the coronavirus spreading early in the election cycle. This week, the Republican president adopted a more somber tone, and Democrats are beginning to worry that he could mold the narrative to his benefit. A massive stimulus, including direct payments to Americans, could help him in November. "The initial mishandling of the coronavirus by the government doesn't mean voters will penalize Trump in November," said Michael Ceraso, who worked for Sanders in 2016 and was Pete Buttigieg's New Hampshire director before leaving his campaign last year. "We know we have two candidates who can pivot this generation's largest health crisis to their policy strengths. But history tells us that an incumbent who steers us through a challenging time, a la Bush and 9/11 and Obama and the Great Recession, are rewarded with a second term." And that's exactly how some in Trump's inner circle view it. People close to the Trump campaign acknowledge to our colleague, Alex Isenstadt, that the president didn't handle the response well in the opening weeks. But if the pandemic abates and the economy stabilizes by the fall, they see a scenario in which Trump comes out of the crisis framing it as an American comeback story and positioning himself as the leader who navigated the country through a crisis. Adding to Democrats' concerns is that it could be months before they mount a unified offensive against Trump. In a normal year, the presidential primary would be shutting down by now, with Joe Biden extending his delegate lead and little left on the electoral map for Bernie Sanders to look forward to. But the coronavirus is freezing the 2020 campaign. Maryland announced today that it is delaying its April primary to June 2, becoming the fifth state to push its primary back due to the pandemic. Rallies are canceled, campaign workers — like everyone else — are confined to their homes. What we're watching — The next 24 hours will be critical to understanding Sanders' intentions. Sanders lost in Florida tonight, and in Illinois . If he also loses Arizona, he will face enormous pressure to withdraw. But many of his allies are lobbying him to stay in — not to win, likely, but to amass more delegates to help advance progressive policy causes at the Democratic National Convention this summer. Sanders has staff in place for states voting in late April, suggesting he isn't eyeing the exits. One reason to stay: A lot can happen in two weeks — or longer, if future primaries are delayed. (An idea some, like Tom Ridge and Terry McAuliffe, aren't keen on.) Welcome to POLITICO Nightly: Coronavirus Special Edition, a nightly intelligence brief from our global newsroom on the impact of the coronavirus on politics and policy, the economy and global health. Reach out: rrayasam@politico.com and @renurayasam.

A message from Ro: Telehealth can help slow the spread of COVID-19. Ro is offering solutions at no cost to virtually triage patients, give people access to a doctor at home, and help unburden the healthcare system. Learn more at Ro.co/Coronavirus.

Talking to the Experts

How can the U.S. build a nationwide system of online voting? "You should never start building your e-government system from a voting system. It should start with low-risk services like tracking a child's progress at school. The system of voting is made safe by the fact that it's in the government service ecosystem. So when I enter the system, nobody knows that I am going there to vote. I might be there just to check my driver's license. Cyberservices are not necessarily 200 percent safe, but it's definitely safer than paper. Privacy is easier to protect in the digital environment than on paper. We pay 1 percent of our GDP on the upkeep of the government digital ecosystem, but it's money well-spent because it's a great equalizer." — Estonian President Kersti Kaljulaid, speaking with POLITICO's Ryan Heath. In the U.S., some election experts warn that an abrupt adoption of vote-by-mail systems in states that aren't sufficiently prepared would introduce new risks and avenues for disruption, Kim Zetter reports for POLITICO. The results, they say, could bring widespread confusion or even disenfranchise voters.

Social distancing from space: Satellite imagery shows the Praça do Comércio empty in Lisbon, Portugal on Tuesday. | Satellite image ©2020 Maxar Technologies Shutdowns take hold — In the latest edition of POLITICO Dispatch , a new podcast from POLITICO's newsroom, we explore the "shelter in place" order that went into effect for most of the San Francisco Bay Area on Monday night amid the coronavirus pandemic. Reporter Marisa Lagos gives an inside look at what it's like in the first U.S. city to shut down. Plus, what happens if the entire nation does the same? Listen to the latest POLITICO Dispatch podcast On The Economy WALL STREET WATCH — Markets are looking for major action from the federal government and local officials as the virus continues to spread, POLITICO's Chief Economic Correspondent Ben White tells us. The bigger the better. This week traders are focused on the bailout billions moving through Congress and they are largely supportive of efforts by local officials to shut down businesses to slow down the outbreak. Wall Street doesn't normally relish the idea of measures that lead to shuttered businesses and laid off workers. About 18 percent of households already reported someone being laid off or having hours reduced because of the coronavirus outbreak, according to an NPR/Marist poll conducted Thursday and Friday. But traders are looking for any moves that will keep the virus contained. "If it looks like there is a flattening of the curve, it's a hugely bullish signal," White says. At the moment, though, don't expect wild market swings to abate. The market closed up today, but it could be down again Wednesday if the Senate delays a vote on the stimulus package. Partisan gridlock would be a "nightmare scenario" for traders. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said his chamber is working on a massive package at "warp speed." And any gains from the stimulus package could be completely wiped out if the virus continues to spread at this or faster rate. Volatility is the order of the day. Health Care BRACING — Hospitals around the country are scrambling to try to ready themselves for a surge of severely ill coronavirus patients. As the U.S. death toll tops 100, they're looking at Italy and other countries, where hospitals were overwhelmed with patients and providers had to triage care, to make sure they have enough beds, staff and equipment available to treat virus victims, POLITICO's Amanda Eisenberg in New York and Debra Kahn in California report. Zuckerberg San Francisco General Hospital and University of California-San Francisco are postponing nonessential surgeries and appointments. In New York City, it's not a choice: Mayor Bill de Blasio ordered all hospitals, both private and public, to postpone elective surgeries and procedures by Thursday. New York is expecting a wave of critically ill patients to show up to hospital emergency rooms starting later this week Bellevue, one of NYC Health + Hospitals' 11 facilities, is setting up a huge tent to expand care for patients. New York-Presbyterian Queens and Montefiore Health System are working to discharge patients. Despite the drastic steps, however, most hospitals say that they are unprepared for the surge. They say the country's slow response is boosting the number of patients who will need acute care. "I was around at the beginning of the AIDS crisis," said Robin Krinsky, registered nurse director at large at Mount Sinai Hospital. "It was not like this."     By the Numbers With the help of The COVID Tracking Project — a volunteer-run accounting of every coronavirus test conducted in America — POLITICO is monitoring how many Americans have been tested in all 50 states, Our live tracker will continue to update with the latest numbers across the country as they come in. Beatrice Jin/POLITICO   GO GLOBAL ... FROM HOME: Global Translations, presented by Morgan Stanley, serves as your guide to understanding the global issues that impact us all without having to travel further than your inbox! You'll learn more about the power players and trends shaping our planet in ways you can apply to your own work and life. In the latest edition, author Ryan Heath ties together the global response to the ongoing coronavirus outbreak and the ways it's affecting 2020 election season in the United States, the health and financial crisis in Italy, and more. SUBSCRIBE TODAY.     The Global Fight KEEP CALM AND CAMPAIGN — The presidents of Mexico and Brazil continue to go to mass events and interact directly with voters. Mexico's President Andrés Manuel López Obrador says he'll only stop "when the time is right." Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro operates a split coronavirus personality: he swings between tweeting the government's actions to limit the virus, while also campaigning and encouraging his supporters to gather, despite 12 of his entourage testing positive. The president himself underwent a second coronavirus test today and is awaiting the results. Meanwhile Australians tell pollsters they are more worried about recession than infection. YOUR MOBILE IS WATCHING YOU —Austrian mobile operator A1 is proactively handing over the movement data of all its users to the Austrian government to help government officials and epidemiologists better understand if social distance rules are being followed. Israel will use counterterrorism technology — and previously secret databases — for real-time monitoring of cell phones. Take a listen to this special coronavirus podcast from POLITICO's Brussels office. For more on the international response to coronavirus, subscribe to Ryan Heath's weekly Global Translations newsletter.   TUNE IN TO POLITICO DISPATCH: Start your mornings with our insider's briefing giving you the essential updates you need. Each day, we take you inside POLITICO, where journalists break news, work sources and pull back the curtain on politics and policy. Fast. Short. Daily. Subscribe & listen to POLITICO Dispatch today.     Parting Words The bipartisan appeal of cash — At a time when Washington is bitterly polarized over almost everything — including other stimulus proposals that would target beleaguered industries or low-income workers — airlifting cash into American households is one of those rare concepts that almost every politician can embrace, regardless of the deficit or growth in the federal government, writes POLITICO's Michael Grunwald . In under 48 hours, the debate has shifted from whether to do it to how big to make it, with $1,000 now looking like a baseline, and some proposing to give some Americans as much as $4,500. "It makes sense on so many levels," said Arshi Siddiqui, who was House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's senior policy adviser when she negotiated the Bush stimulus in January 2008. "It can get money to people quickly, especially people living paycheck to paycheck, and it has real bipartisan appeal."   A message from Ro: Public health officials are encouraging patients to stay home and seek guidance for COVID-19 from their doctors remotely. This is where telehealth can lend a hand by triaging patients and unburdening the healthcare system. Ro built a free coronavirus telehealth assessment to help Americans who are concerned about COVID-19. The service is designed by doctors and infectious disease experts and is based on guidelines from the CDC and WHO. Learn more at Ro.co/Coronavirus.   Did someone forward you this email? Sign up here.   Follow us on Twitter Renuka Rayasam @renurayasam   Follow us

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