POLITICO NIGHTLY: The next New York

By Renuka Rayasam Presented by THE NEXT NEW YORK — There's more than one. Almost no major city will be spared from Covid-19. Cities including Atlanta, Philadelphia and Detroit — densely populated, major transit hubs — are already seeing spikes in infection rates. But the country's patchwork pandemic response is revealing that places that were slow to put in place strong social distancing measures will be especially hard hit. The White House said today that the country can expect at least 100,000 deaths, but also argues that most places won't plunge into a New York-style crisis. Other experts predict the numbers could be higher and spread throughout the country. "April will be hard everywhere," former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb predicted . He said in a Twitter thread to "expect urban centers to all be engulfed" and that there will be a number of crisis epicenters that strain health systems across the country. There's been a fractured response — The White House issued social distancing guidelines well after states and cities put together their own varied responses. Now, more than 30 states have issued shelter-in-place orders, but many state governors are still resisting such calls for strict statewide orders. In Virginia, Democratic Gov. Ralph Northam waited until Monday to issue a stay-at-home order. Democratic Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf has limited shelter-in-place orders to specific counties, and in Texas Republican Gov. Greg Abbott strengthened social distancing guidance today but stopped short of a shelter-in-place order. New Orleans, which didn't cancel Mardi Gras celebrations on February 25, now has 1,834 cases and 101 deaths. Florida, where Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis didn't cancel spring break, looks to be the next crisis hotspot, although limited testing capabilities nationwide are hampering the ability to get a precise sense of which health care system will be overwhelmed next. Look for Ohio, where Republican Gov. Mike DeWine was early to enact social distancing measures, to fare better than Missouri, where Republican Gov. Mike Parson was slow to address the crisis. "If you wait to see it, it will be too late," White House coronavirus task force coordinator Deborah Birx said today. The virus is spreading beyond big cities — In Texas, Abbott pointed to a handful of urban hotspots as a reason for initially resisting a statewide social distancing measure and argued that rural areas weren't going to be hard hit. Yet now half of all the counties in the state have cases. Smith County in East Texas, which had resisted social distancing measures until Friday, has 32 cases out of a population of 232,751, an infection rate that is nearly on par with bigger Texas cities. Where the spread is slowing — On the West Coast, where the crisis first hit and where strict social distancing measures were put in place quickly, the spread of the virus has slowed. The death rate is doubling every three days across the country with the exception of the Pacific region where the death rate is slower — every five days, according to Sam Wang, a Princeton neuroscientist who has been tracking the disease spread. "As an epidemic starts coming under control, that period gets longer," Wang said. In Wuhan, China, the death rate is now doubling only every 41 days, he said. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly: Coronavirus Special Edition, a nightly intelligence brief from our global newsroom on the impact of the coronavirus on politics and policy, the economy and global health. We wish our colleague and Nightly contributor Ben White a very happy birthday today. Reach out: rrayasam@politico.com and @renurayasam. A message from Navigator Research: A new daily coronavirus tracking poll by Navigator Research is measuring the impact of the pandemic on American life. Initial polling already shows that more than 75% think we are in or headed toward a recession. See the latest report.   First In Nightly TRUMP'S TRUST RATING — The president has touted his Trump-branded "30 Days to Stop the Spread" plan, a set of social distancing guidelines that remains in effect through April 30. But, senior elections and campaigns editor Steve Shepard writes, when it comes time for the U.S. to get moving again, few voters will take their cues from the White House briefing room, according to a POLITICO/Morning Consult poll set to be released Wednesday. A sneak peek for Nightly: Only 37 percent of voters surveyed said they would have "a lot" or "some" trust in Trump to recommend ending physical and social distancing recommendations, while 55 percent have "not much" or no trust "at all." Compare that with the CDC: 74 percent say they have "a lot" or "some" trust in it to recommend when it is safe to discontinue those measures. DIPLOMATIC MINEFIELD — Last week, a Trump administration official working to secure much-needed protective gear for doctors and nurses in the U.S. had a startling encounter with counterparts in Thailand. The official asked the Thais for help — only to be informed by the puzzled voices on the other side of the line that a U.S. shipment of the same supplies, the second of two so far, was already on its way to Bangkok. The incident led the White House to effectively freeze already-approved coronavirus-related PPE aid to at least 13 countries as the Trump administration comes under fire for shipping supplies overseas rather than to states that need them. But diplomats are worried about damaging relationships with crucial allies. The only thing we have to fear ... — Joshua Epstein of New York University's School of Global Public Health writes in POLITICO Magazine on America's other contagion: "The best advice these models have to offer right now is that we need to think about the novel coronavirus as four separate epidemics: In addition to the Covid-19, itself, we are also in epidemics of fear about the virus, fear about the economy, and likely soon, fear about a new vaccine. All four contagions are closely intertwined and will interact to amplify each other in complex ways." HISTORIC PERSPECTIVE — With more than 3,000 deaths, Covid-19 fatalities today passed the number killed during the 1941 attack on Pearl Harbor. Patterson Clark's graphic takes a historical look at how different fatality projects stack up against the deadliest incidents in American history. POLITICO Pro DataPoint   THURSDAY - Coronavirus Special Report: Virtual Briefing Series: Companies and academic institutions are racing to create a coronavirus vaccine. What are the hurdles to creating and rolling out a vaccine? What regulations or standards might need to be relaxed to move the process along faster? Join POLITICO health care reporters on Thursday, April 2 at 9 a.m. EDT for a virtual briefing on the race to develop a vaccine for the coronavirus. Register here to watch.     Palace Intrigue K STREET'S NEXT MOVE — Lobbyists worked overtime to shape the $2 trillion emergency relief bill signed into law last Friday. Now they're trying to sway how the Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve, which have lots of flexibility to administer relief programs, write rules to dole out proceeds from the law, our lobbying reporter Theodoric Meyer tells us. Companies from across the country are approaching Washington lobbyists to help them figure out which provisions in the 880-page law will be to their advantage and how to get their share of the hundreds of billions of dollars in loans made available through the bill, some of which will be routed through the Small Business Administration and some through loans backed by the Treasury Department and the Fed. Retailers and casinos, for example, want to make sure that having middling or poor credit won't keep them from getting a loan. Some companies also want Treasury to waive restrictions on accepting relief loans, such as the prohibition on paying dividends to stockholders for a year after they repay the loans. "This has moved even faster than the 2008 bank bailouts," said Theo. "Even as so many Americans are out of work, many on K street are working long hours." Lobbying is going to keep at a frantic pace especially as Congress looks to do another rescue package in the coming weeks and lawmakers' appetite to spend big continues. SHOULD TRUMP TEXT AMERICA TO STAY INDOORS? A national text message would be more effective at persuading young Americans to socially distance than television briefings, Rep. Don Beyer (D-Va.) proposed to our Daniel Lippman. Such a text could be sent through the national Wireless Emergency Alert system, which is managed by FEMA. A White House coronavirus task force official declined to comment when asked if the Trump administration is considering the move.     Nightly Number 972,000 — As of this morning, more than 972,000 voters across Wisconsin had requested absentee ballots for the state's April 7 presidential primary . That's a record for Wisconsin, and more than the 250,000 absentee ballots cast in the 2016 primaries — but well short of total turnout that year, when about 2.1 million people voted. (h/t campaigns reporter Zach Montellaro) A volunteer sprays disinfectant at a popular tourist attraction in Indonesia to prevent the spread of Covid-19. | Getty Images The Global Fight WHY HUNGARY WON'T START AN AUTHORITARIAN PANDEMIC — Hungary is now ruled by decree. Our Ryan Heath asks, Who's next? Serbia is cuddling up to China , and Poland presents a risk: A presidential election May 10 will see the conservative incumbent Andrzej Duda returned in a landslide (his main opposition withdrew). That mandate would open the door to new attempts by the ruling Law and Justice party to neuter its judiciary. Yet Hungary's other European neighbors are turning away from Viktor Orbán. The Czech prime minister Andrej Babiš today flatly rejected more executive power, and focuses instead on wearing a mask at press conferences and around staff, even lobbying President Trump to adopt the Czech system of mandatory masks in public. To Hungary's north, Slovakia achieved a smooth handover of power on March 21, after a grassroots backlash against Slovakia's ruling elite installed the Ordinary People party into office. To Romania in the east, another Orbán — Ludovic, no relation — was confirmed as prime minister March 14 and is a reluctant convert to local anti-corruption efforts. 'Everything is like a horror movie' — On the latest episode of POLITICO Dispatch, people around the world talk about the minutiae of living through the pandemic, including this observation from a Northwestern University senior: "It really feels like I'm just indoors watching a storm outside, and I guess metaphorically that is the case." Listen to the latest POLITICO Dispatch podcast Talking to the Experts What does it mean for American society to lose a semester of school? "Unfortunately, we know that there are huge equity gaps in our existing system, and these moments of crisis fall hardest on those students. And we know in other districts there are real challenges around devices, around access to Wi-Fi for families and real challenges around the capacity of the school districts to move to online learning, because they just haven't been using education technology regularly in their school district. So I think [there is] a real responsibility on the part of the federal government, states and districts to not only make significant investments to address this crisis but to do so in a way that is laser-focused on issues of equity." — John King, president and CEO of The Education Trust and former U.S. secretary of Education, as told to education reporter Juan Perez Jr. "We've essentially reinvented schools in two and a half weeks. Schools have been the hubs of our communities for a really long time. And now what we're asking of them is not only to provide meals, but provide meals and get it out to kids in remote locations. To provide childcare for first responders and essential employees. And doing all of this while mitigating disease spread. We know that there's definitely going to be losses in learning." — Carissa Moffat Miller, executive director of the Council of Chief State School Officers   THE FDA & AGENCY IQ: The FDA is at the epicenter of the federal government's ongoing response to the COVID-19 pandemic. POLITICO's newest division, AgencyIQ, is providing around-the-clock coverage of the developing public health crisis for regulatory professionals in the biopharmaceutical and in vitro diagnostic (IVD) communities. AgencyIQ's full suite of research and analysis is available in the COVID-19 Resource Center , which addresses important topics, ranging from development pathways available to companies bringing new medical products to the public to the impact of FDA's efforts to accelerate the introduction of a vaccine for the novel coronavirus. If you are monitoring this situation and the FDA actions at a micro level, check it out here.     Parting Words DUST JACKET — Dr. Anthony Fauci will get his name on one after the crisis has died down, or so many publishers are hoping. The government's leading infectious disease expert could fetch a seven-figure advance and is at the top of any editor's list for a book contract after the pandemic subsides and he leaves his post, top Washington book agent Keith Urbahn says. The pandemic is likely to spawn a number of books, Urbahn told Daniel Lippman. Urbahn is the president and a founding partner of Javelin, a Washington-based literacy agency known as a manufacturer of million-dollar deals for ex-Trump officials. He's already discussed book ideas with journalists, policymakers and doctors, but he wouldn't disclose any names. Urbahn cautioned that there will be a high bar for book proposals to be bought by publishers. Fauci didn't respond to an email asking whether he's interested in writing a book. A message from Navigator Research: Each day, Navigator Research is diving into public opinion around the growing coronavirus pandemic, with a focus on public health and economic anxieties, which are growing by the minute. Already, nearly half of Americans say someone they know personally has lost their job because of coronavirus, and more than 60% say they know someone who has had their hours cut at work due to the pandemic. This has translated into a huge decline in Americans' perception of the state of the economy. Roughly 30% of Americans rate the U.S. economy as being excellent or good, a significant decline from 53% earlier this month. We are currently experiencing the greatest crisis of our lifetimes -- and public opinion is changing by the day. Stay up to date with "Navigating Coronavirus," a source for daily polling and messaging updates about the pandemic. Visit Navigator Research for the latest insights and sign up for daily updates.   Did someone forward you this email? Sign up here.   Follow us on Twitter Renuka Rayasam @renurayasam   Follow us

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