POLITICO Nightly: The historic conclave to come

 

By Eric Bazail-Eimil Presented by the American Heart Association Catholic cardinals attend the Eight Novemdiale mass after the pope's funeral and ahead of the conclave at the St. Peter's Basilica in The Vatican on May 3, 2025. | Andreas Solaro/AFP via Getty Images SMOKE SIGNAL — In just a few hours, 133 men will pray, convene and begin a series of votes that could shape the course of human history. So will begin the much-awaited conclave to select the successor of the late Pope Francis. The Vatican is ready for the historic moment. The chimney has been installed atop St. Peter’s Basilica that will release black or white smoke to signal whether the next Bishop of Rome has been elected or not. Three sets of new papal vestments, made in three different sizes to account for the unpredictable proportions of the next pontiff, are ready for the new pope to wear when he gives the world his first blessing. Everyone, from the cardinals to the drivers to the medical staff on hand to tend to ailing elderly clergymen, is sworn to secrecy about the events that will unfold behind closed doors. As for the world, it seems far from ready. At the heart of the public fascination with this conclave is more than just an awareness that history will be redefined by the person the cardinals select to be the next Vicar of Christ. The conclave has become what Francis feared: an exercise of ideological wishcasting. Liberals around the world want the church to stay the course and advance Francis’ open-minded approach to LGBTQ+ rights and his push to empower lay people and women. Meanwhile, some powerful right-wing Catholics are using the conclave as an opportunity to use their influence to steer the direction of the church back towards more staunch traditionalism . Anxiety, as much as excitement, is in the air in Church circles as the conclave dawns. Catholics often say that the Holy Spirit “picks” the pope. But even the most orthodox of theologians acknowledge that human concerns weigh on these votes and that it is ultimately humans who decide. The late Pope Benedict XVI once said of the conclave process that “the Spirit does not exactly take control of the affair, but rather, like a good educator, as it were, leaves us much space, much freedom, without entirely abandoning us.” The makeup of the conclave is complicating the ability of Vatican watchers to predict the outcome. This conclave will be the largest in history — and the most geographically diverse. Italians, who have been, and remain, the nationality most represented at a conclave, will account for just 13 percent of the cardinal electors. Europeans as a whole will only account for 39 percent of cardinal electors, down from the last conclave when they represented over half of those present. More cardinals than ever from the so-called Global South — Latin America, Africa and Asia — will participate. And the growth and staying power of the Catholic Church in those regions means that conclaves from here on out will only become more global in their consideration of what the Church needs to do to maintain relevance and meet the needs of people around the world. Cardinals are not just picking a pontiff to settle questions about abortion, gay marriage, the ordination of women and other hot-button social issues. The person they select also needs to manage a sprawling global bureaucratic institution mired in corruption and inefficiency. And the new Bishop of Rome will have to decide how exactly to position the Catholic Church: Will the pope be a minister to the entire world, as Francis was? Or will the pope tend to a “smaller and more pure” church, as Benedict did? Age, too, is a factor. Elect a pope who is too old, or in poor health, and the process may repeat itself too quickly. On the other hand, electing a pope who is too young may provide for an excessively long papacy that over time entrenches institutional weaknesses and limits opportunity for reform. That was the case when Pope Saint John Paul II became Bishop of Rome at the sprightly age of 58 and went on to spend 26 years on the throne of St. Peter. Critics say that John Paul II’s lengthy pontificate over time created a “childish complacency” in the church that prevented lay people and minority in the church from challenging problematic ecclesial decisions and a “status quo” that blocked overdue institutional changes on sexual abuse and other crises before the church. Those are the animating questions before the 133 electors, and they make the task of prediction nearly impossible. No purported candidate, or papabile , best meets the prevailing mood in the College of Cardinals. Some, however, are getting plenty of media attention. Of the moderates, 70-year-old Pietro Parolin, the Secretary of State of the Vatican who spent his life as a diplomat on behalf of the Church, is a skilled diplomat and seen as a frontrunner. But Parolin is also not beloved as a pastor and may be viewed as too much of an insider. Pierbattista Pizzaballa, the 59-year-old Franciscan Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, is seen as a moderate force who has managed the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza as well as any cleric could. But his relative youth could be a turnoff. On the progressive side, 67-year-old Luis Antonio Tagle, the archbishop of Manila, has been dubbed the “Asian Francis” by the media. However, it’s unclear if cardinals want to resoundingly endorse the open-minded vision of Francis by selecting Tagle as vicar of Christ. Another progressive, the affable 66-year-old Archbishop of Marseilles Jean-Marc Aveline, was a major player in Francis’ Synod on Synodality, the late pontiff’s signature effort to engage the concerns of lay people around the world. That said, Aveline’s lack of fluency in Italian — he speaks French and Arabic — could quelch his odds. Conservatives are mainly touting 72-year-old Peter Erdo of Hungary and 79-year-old Robert Sarah of Guinea, but it is unlikely there are enough traditionalists in the conclave for them to win outright. There is some belief that traditionalists, in order to forestall debate on gay marriage and the ordination of women in the church, may back a compromise candidate such as 65-year-old Fridolin Ambongo Besungu, the more socially conservative archbishop of Kinshasa whose pastoral style was nevertheless praised by the more liberal Francis. It’s a long and complicated list of strengths and weaknesses and trade-offs and benefits to weigh. And it’s why this conclave is expected to take several days, as candidates surge and fall and the cardinals discern who is best suited to lead the Church in a rapidly-changing world and looks to move from out under the shadow of the sex abuse scandal . Soon, the sun will rise in Rome. So too will another chapter in the two millennia history of the largest Christian denomination on the planet. The waiting among the 1.4 billion Catholic faithful and people from around the world begins. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at ebazail@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @ebazaileimil .   A message from the American Heart Association: Across America, communities are standing up to Big Soda—and winning. By taking action to remove sugary drinks from SNAP, raise sugary drink excise taxes to lower sales and expose soda companies’ predatory marketing tactics, leaders are protecting kids’ health against powerful corporate interests. The American Heart Association remains committed to curbing sugary drink consumption and protecting families' health.   What'd I Miss? — Supreme Court lets Trump ban transgender people from military: President Donald Trump can proceed with his plan to ban transgender people from the military , including by removing transgender troops currently serving, the Supreme Court ruled Tuesday. The brief one-page order — delivered over the dissent of the three liberal justices — lifted a lower-court judge’s ruling that had paused the administration’s ban, concluding it was likely unconstitutional and based on distortions of limited research on the subject. The Trump administration had argued that the courts are required to nearly always defer to the military’s determinations about readiness, lethality and unit cohesion. excerpt: The brief one-page order — delivered over the dissent of the three liberal justices — lifted a lower-court judge’s ruling that had paused the administration’s ban, concluding it was likely unconstitutional and based on distortions of limited research on the subject. The Trump administration had argued that the courts are required to nearly always defer to the military’s determinations about readiness, lethality and unit cohesion. Neither the majority nor the dissenters provided any reasoning for their positions. The order, which followed an emergency appeal from the Trump administration, is not a final ruling on the issue, but will remain in place as litigation proceeds. Two federal district judges had previously blocked the administration’s ban, finding the move was so unsupported that it could not be sustained even when showing great deference to military leaders. The judges also ruled that the military had to resume medical care for transgender service members. U.S. District Judge Ana Reyes, a Joe Biden appointee in Washington, D.C., blocked the ban on March 18, only to have her ruling paused by a three-judge panel of the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals. But a second decision on March 28 by U.S. District Judge Benjamin Settle, a George W. Bush appointee based in Tacoma, Washington, was allowed to stand by the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals. In an urgent appeal to the high court last month, Solicitor General John Sauer argued that federal judges were overstepping their bounds by intruding on the president’s authority to supervise the armed forces. “The Constitution does not authorize courts to second-guess the approach to gender transition adopted by the 2025 policy,” Sauer added. In 2019, the Supreme Court split 5-4 as it ruled that the first Trump administration could proceed with a narrower ban that sought to exclude transgender people who had undergone gender transition and those unwilling to serve “in their biological sex” from the military. Biden reversed that ban and allowed most transgender people to serve openly in the military. But shortly after returning to office, Trump revoked Biden’s policy and issued an executive order reinstating an even stricter ban. Groups who challenged the ban called Tuesday’s Supreme Court ruling a “devastating blow to transgender servicemembers who have demonstrated their capabilities and commitment to our nation’s defense.” “By allowing this discriminatory ban to take effect while our challenge continues, the Court has temporarily sanctioned a policy that has nothing to do with military readiness and everything to do with prejudice,” the Human Rights Campaign Foundation and Lambda Legal said in a statement. *****WATCH WHAT MAGA GOP VOTE TO PROTECT THE LEAST AMONG US TO FUND TAX CUTS FOR THE WEALTHY! **************** — House Democrats launch longshot procedural move to prevent safety net cuts: House Democratic leaders said Tuesday they would launch a longshot effort to force a vote on a bill preventing cuts to key federal safety-net programs. The discharge petition is meant to put political pressure on Republicans as they eye cuts to Medicaid and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program in writing their domestic policy megabill. If 218 members sign the discharge petition, it would force a floor vote on a bill that would prevent the House from taking up bills under the party-line reconciliation process that would cut Medicaid or SNAP. Members are generally reluctant to buck party leadership to sign discharge petitions, and GOP leaders have taken steps this Congress to block the process entirely. ***INSENSITIVE & POOR DECISION!**** — Embassies disinvited from WWII ceremony after Europeans protest Russian invite: Foreign embassies have been disinvited from an annual Washington event commemorating the end of World War II in Europe this week, after a group of European embassies protested the organizers’ decision to include ambassadors from Russia and its close ally Belarus. The invitation to the Russians and Belarusians marked the first time since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 that the two nations were invited to the May 8 ceremony, which is organized by the Friends of the National World War II Memorial, a non-profit organization. A number of European ambassadors banded together to threaten to boycott the event, according to three European officials. That prompted the nonprofit to withdraw invitations to all foreign embassies, leaving the United States as the only formal participant in an event that has regularly drawn European ambassadors and symbolizes close historic transatlantic ties. excerpt: A number of European ambassadors banded together to threaten to boycott the event, according to three European officials. That prompted the nonprofit to withdraw invitations to all foreign embassies, leaving the United States as the only formal participant in an event that has regularly drawn European ambassadors and symbolizes close historic transatlantic ties. Organizers sent an email Tuesday telling embassies that the event — which this year marks the 80th anniversary of the end of the conflict — is now an America-only ceremony. “We have made the decision to scale back this year’s ceremony to keep the focus squarely on the 16 million Americans who served in the U.S. Armed Forces during World War II,” the group said in the email, which was obtained by POLITICO. The dustup underscores how toxic any formal engagement with Russia remains for many of the United States’ closest allies amid the war in Ukraine — while the Trump administration looks to re-engage with Moscow in peace talks to end the war. It comes one month before the annual NATO leaders meeting in The Hague, where the raw feelings between Washington and its closest allies in Europe will likely be on display as those leaders come face-to-face with President Donald Trump, who is expected to attend and again demand that NATO allies increase their defense spending significantly. One senior European official familiar with the matter called the idea of inviting Russia to the event as a “slap in the face.” This official said the invitation to embassies were likely withdrawn because of the sharp backlash. Like others, the official was granted anonymity to speak candidly on internal diplomatic reactions to the event. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to launch an unprovoked, full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has led to hundreds of thousands of deaths and the largest war in Europe since World War II. U.N. investigators have accused Russian forces occupying Ukraine of myriad atrocities including the murder of civilians and systematic torture and sexual violence. One foreign embassy official said the group had told event organizers it would be impossible for them to participate, explaining, “We cannot put a wreath with our national colors next to a Russian wreath.” Friends of World War II Memorial spokesperson Scott Warner confirmed via email that while allies normally participate in war commemoration events, “no embassy representatives will participate in this year’s ceremony as part of the official program.” The White House noted that the event is not organized by the administration and declined to comment further. A second official described the initial list of invitees as “a very strange group,” noting that it includes not only Russia, but Brazil and Slovakia, while excluding the Czech Republic, which broke from Slovakia in 1992. A copy of the original invitation obtained by POLITICO lists Australia, Belarus, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Denmark, France, Greece, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Russia, Slovak Republic, Ukraine and the U.K. The event, which will feature performances by the U.S. Army band, speeches by National Parks officials and a recognition of American veterans of WWII, will now likely be much smaller than other celebrations in allied capitals. ****THE COST OF DEFENDING ISRAEL!**** — Trump announces US will stop bombing Houthis: The United States will stop strikes against Yemen’s Houthi group , President Donald Trump announced Tuesday, after a nearly-two month bombing campaign. Trump, ahead of a meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, said the halt would start immediately. The Houthis approached the administration on Monday night indicating “they want to stop the fighting,” he said. excerpts:  The military has struck at least 800 targets in Yemen and killed hundreds of Houthis since March, according to U.S. Central Command. The threat of Houthi attacks on the Red Sea waterway has forced commercial ships to divert course, causing lengthy delays and extending maritime trading routes thousands of miles around the tip of Africa. A senior Houthi leader told DropSiteNews in April that the group would cease attacks if the Trump administration halted bombings. But the arrangement is unlikely to calm tensions in the region if it’s limited to protecting American ships. Israel escalated strikes against the Houthis on Monday night with 20 fighter jets bombing the rebel-held port city of Hodeidah. Israeli forces were responding to a ballistic missile strike against the Jerusalem airport by the group. The Trump administration also labeled the Houthis a terror group in March, changing a Biden-era policy. Trump special envoy Steve Witkoff worked to reach a ceasefire over the weekend with Oman serving as a mediator, said a person familiar with the matter, who was granted anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomatic issues. Witkoff has also been leading talks with Iran, which is backed by the Houthis, over its nuclear program. The Houthi ceasefire could help improve the environment for those discussions, which are meant to reconvene soon. Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, a senior Houthi official, told Bloomberg News that the group would stop attacking U.S. military ships if Washington halts its strikes, “but we will definitely continue our operations in support to Gaza.” He said Houthi operations would continue “until the end of the aggression on Gaza and blockade on its people.” The Houthis have launched more than 500 strikes on commercial ships in the Red Sea and against Israel since Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attacks, according to the International Crisis Group, an independent conflict monitor. But Houthi strikes against the waterway have declined significantly in recent months, and the group hasn’t targeted a commercial vessel since late December. But the costs have continued to pile up with an extraordinary display of U.S. military force. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth extended the deployment of the USS Harry S. Truman carrier strike group in the region and sent a second carrier, the USS Carl Vinson, in a major allocation of resources. The Pentagon also sent six B-2 bombers to the U.S. airbase at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean — a third of the entire U.S. fleet. The strike halt comes before Trump heads to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates next week. Trump said he will make a “very, very big” and “positive” announcement before the trip, but did not specify what that would mean. AROUND THE WORLD A view of a gravity-type base for natural gas liquefaction at the Novatek-Murmansk's Offshore Superfacility Construction Center in the Murmansk region on July 20, 2023. | Alexander Kazakov/Sputnik/AFP via Getty Images BLANKET BAN — The European Union’s executive will soon unveil legislation to end all Russian gas imports by the end of 2027 . The goal is at the core of a plan that the European Commission presented on Tuesday. The Commission said it will release legislation next month to ban new gas contracts with Russia — a prohibition that would kick in at the end of 2025 for short-term market purchases, and at the end of 2027 for long-term contracts. The plan will similarly target Russian oil, but with less-binding measures. And it will go after Russian nuclear supplies, proposing upcoming measures and laws to shun Russian nuclear fuel and uranium imports. The move sets EU officials up for a clash with countries less keen to lose supplies of historically cheaper Russian imports, like Hungary and Slovakia. While the Commission can propose laws, it has to go through extensive negotiations with EU capitals and the European Parliament. BRUSSELS RIOTS — The wave of violence that engulfed Brussels on Sunday and Monday following a major football match was spurred by racist hatred for Belgium’s multiethnic capital, the city’s mayor said. Supporters of Club Brugge, wearing black hoodies, rampaged on Sunday through Molenbeek — a Brussels neighborhood famous for its large migrant and predominantly Muslim population — smashing shop windows and assaulting people. “They hate Brussels because it’s a multicultural city,” Brussels Mayor Philippe Close told POLITICO on Tuesday. Local police said they had arrested 63 people and worked “until late into the night” to quell the disorder, with some Brussels locals fighting back. One Bruges fan was shot in the leg, the Brussels prosecutor’s office confirmed. ***UKRAINE ATTACKING RUSSIA!**** AIRPORT ATTACKS — Moscow's four international airports closed for hours overnight following an attack by Ukrainian drones on the capital that spread to other Russian cities and airports. Russian forces shot down 105 Ukrainian drones overnight, the Russian defense ministry told local news agencies. According to Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin, 19 drones were destroyed near Moscow alone, causing no injuries. The attack by Ukrainian drones led to disruptions at 13 Russian airports early Tuesday, Russian media reported, citing Russia's air transport safety agency.   A message from the American Heart Association:     Nightly Number €100 billion The amount ($113.7 billion) in U.S. exports that the European Commission is looking at hitting in retaliation for Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs, if negotiations with Washington fail. Brussels is expected to share the list Thursday at the earliest, three diplomats said, which will then kick off a month-long consultation with countries and stakeholders.   A message from the American Heart Association: Kids in the U.S. drink more than 30 gallons of sugary drinks each year on average—enough to fill a bathtub. Sugary drinks help fuel an epidemic of chronic disease, increasing rates of heart disease, type 2 diabetes, high blood pressure and obesity. It’s no accident – it’s a business model. The soda industry floods social media, video games, streaming services and schools with ads while it fights against proven solutions to reduce consumption—putting profits over people. Across America, communities are taking action to remove sugary drinks from SNAP, raise sugary drink excise taxes to lower sales and demand accountability for aggressive marketing to kids. This work is hard—soda companies spend millions to block them. But local leaders, parents and health advocates refuse to back down. By advocating for smart policies and urging community action, the American Heart Association is committed to curbing sugary drink consumption and protecting families' health.   RADAR SWEEP PRIMATE VS. PRIMATE — When people started theorizing who would win in a matchup between 100 men and a single gorilla on social media, it seemed obvious to some that the great ape would take home the prize. But Rolling Stone’s Miles Klee asked a few primatologists, and the answer wasn’t as clear. Most of the scientists agreed that the gorilla’s physicality — 400 pound frame, piercing canines, and incredibly strong muscle fibers — would work in its favor. However, having that many opponents might prove to be challenging for an animal that prefers to fight in numbers. Parting Image On this date in 1968: Helmeted anti-riot police charge through a cloud of tear gas during student riots in Paris. The countrywide uprisings throughout the month of May became one of the most momentous periods of civil unrest in France’s history and included a general strike. | AP Did someone forward this email to you?  Sign up here .   Follow us on X Charlie Mahtesian @PoliticoCharlie Calder McHugh @calder_mchugh   Follow us

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