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Red States Have Higher Gun Death Rates Than Blue States. Here’s Why

Arianna Johnson

Forbes Staff
Updated Apr 28, 2023

TOPLINE

 

A new study published in Journal of the American Medical Association’s Surgery found that firearm deaths are more likely in small rural towns than in major urban cities, adding to research that contradicts common belief that Democratic blue areas have higher incidences of gun-related deaths than do Republican red districts.

Firearms on display.

GETTY IMAGES

KEY FACTS

Researchers from Children’s Hospital Philadelphia, Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health and the University of California examined two decades of mortality rates and cause-of-death data from the National Center for Health Statistics’ National Vital Statistics System to compile the study.

A Third Way report found that between 2000 and 2020, Trump-voting states had 12% higher murder rates than did Biden-voting cities.

Data shows that in 2020, eight of the ten states with the highest murder rates voted for the Republican presidential nominee in every election in this century.

In the past, Republicans have made crime a major campaign talking point—in October 2022, one quarter of attack ads on Democrats focused on crime, and in the two months leading up to the midterms, Fox aired about 141 crime segments on weekdays, according to the report.

A report published in the New England Journal of Medicine found guns became the leading cause of death for children starting in 2017—motor vehicle-related deaths held the number one spot for 60 years prior.

SURPRISING FACT

The JAMA Surgery study also found that gun suicides are more common than gun homicides, with gun suicides accounting for a large increase in gun deaths in recent years.

BIG NUMBER

45,222. That’s how many people died in the U.S. due to gun-related injuries in 2020, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Of that number, gun suicides account for 54%.

CRUCIAL QUOTE

“Despite the pervasive nature of gun violence, high rates of gun homicide in urban centers have been the sole focus of many policymakers and used as justification to loosen gun laws, when in fact gun violence is an issue in counties of all sizes,” the researchers of the JAMA Surgery study said.

STATES WITH THE HIGHEST GUN DEATH RATES

According to data from the CDC, these are the states with the highest firearm mortality rates per 100,000 in 2021:

1. 🔴Mississippi had a firearm mortality rate of 33.9, making it the state with the highest rate in 2021. The state also used its electoral votes to vote for then President Trump in the 2020 election.
2. 🔴Louisiana had a firearm mortality rate of 29.1 and voted for Trump.
3. 🔵New Mexico had a firearm mortality rate of 27.8 and voted for President Biden.
4. 🔴Alabama had a firearm mortality rate of 26.4 and voted for Trump.
5. 🔴Wyoming had a firearm mortality rate of 26.1 and voted for Trump.
6. 🔴Alaska had a firearm mortality rate of 25.2 and voted for Trump.
7. 🔴Montana had a firearm mortality rate of 25.1 and voted for Trump.
8. 🔴Arkansas had a firearm mortality rate of 23.3 and voted for Trump.
9. 🔴Missouri had a firearm mortality rate of 23.2 and voted for Trump.
10. 🔴Tennessee had a firearm mortality rate of 22.8 and voted for Trump.
11. 🔴South Carolina had a firearm mortality rate of 22.4 and voted for Trump.
12. 🔴Oklahoma had a firearm mortality rate of 21.2 and voted for Trump.
13. 🔵Georgia had a firearm mortality rate of 20.3 and voted for Biden.
14. 🔵Nevada had a firearm mortality rate of 19.8 and voted for Biden.
15. 🔴Indiana had a firearm mortality rate of 18.4 and voted for Trump.

STATES WITH THE LOWEST GUN DEATH RATES

1. 🔵Massachusetts has a firearm mortality rate of 3.4 and voted for Biden.
2. 🔵Hawaii has a firearm mortality rate of 4.8 and voted for Biden.
3. 🔵New Jersey has a firearm mortality rate of 5.2 and voted for Biden.
4. 🔵New York has a firearm mortality rate of 5.4 and voted for Biden.
5. 🔵Rhode Island has a firearm mortality rate of 5.6 and voted for Biden.
6. 🔵Connecticut has a firearm mortality rate of 6.7 and voted for Biden.
7. 🔵New Hampshire has a firearm mortality rate of 8.3 and voted for Biden.
8. 🔵California has a firearm mortality rate of 9.0 and voted for Biden.
9. 🔵Minnesota has a firearm mortality rate of 10.0 and voted for Biden.
10. 🔴Nebraska has a firearm mortality rate of 10.3 and voted for Trump.
11. 🔴Iowa has a firearm mortality rate of 11.2 and voted for Trump.
12. 🔵Washington has a firearm mortality rate of 11.2 and voted for Biden.
13. 🔵Vermont has a firearm mortality rate of 11.9 and voted for Biden.
14. 🔵Maine has a firearm mortality rate of 12.6 and voted for Biden.
15. 🔵Wisconsin has a firearm mortality rate of 13.5 and voted for Biden.

REPUBLICANS ON GUN CRIMES

Contrary to popular belief, the South is the geographical region with the highest gun-related crime rates, and these states largely have been Republican-run for years. Fifteen of the 20 states with the highest firearm mortality rates are led by Republicans. However, Republican lawmakers have historically used gun-related crime rates against Democrats. After the May 2, 2022, Robb Elementary school shooting in Uvalde, Texas, that left 21 people dead, Gov. Greg Abbott dismissed suggestions that the state could save lives by implementing stricter gun laws by saying, “Chicago and L.A. and New York disprove that thesis.” In July 2022, Trump called the U.S. a “cesspool” since he left office, pinpointing New York, Chicago and Los Angeles, and explaining these were places “where the middle class used to flock to live the American dream (but) are now war zones, literal war zones.” Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis criticized New York for allowing “criminals to run wild,” while praising Florida for having a stricter crime policy.

CONTRA

Data suggests New York saw significant drops in homicides between 2021 and 2022, while Florida saw significant increases. According to Third Way, some Republicans argue crime rates in their states are only high because of the blue cities within them. But murder rates have increased in rural, urban and suburban locales.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/ariannajohnson/2023/04/28/red-states-have-higher-gun-death-rates-than-blue-states-heres-why/?sh=19a409101f81