Morning Digest, sponsored by Campaign Legal Center: Veteran congressman earns primary challenge from member of 'Tennessee Three'Justin Pearson's bid against Steve Cohen sets up a high-profile generational clash
Leading OffTN-09Tennessee state Rep. Justin Pearson announced Wednesday that he would challenge veteran Rep. Steve Cohen in what will be one of the next year’s most closely watched Democratic primaries. “The congressman has served in public office for 42 years, and I’m grateful for his service to our community,” Pearson, 30, told Semafor just before he kicked off his campaign to oppose the 76-year-old congressman in the safely blue 9th District.
But Pearson, who attracted national attention in 2023 after the GOP-dominated state House expelled him for participating in a gun safety protest on the chamber floor, argued that this Memphis-based constituency needs a new representative. “A lot has changed over those 42 years,” said Pearson, who would be the first Black person to represent the state in Congress in 20 years. “The way the government works, the way that politics is working—the status quo isn’t something that we can keep going with.” Pearson also argued he’d do a better job than Cohen in combating the Trump administration, including its threat to deploy the National Guard to Memphis. “You can’t just write stern letters and newsletters against this administration,” the challenger said. “You have to support organizers who are making sure there’s mutual aid, making sure that there’s a hotline for people who are having horrible interactions with this militarized occupation of our city.” Cohen, who is the state’s only Democratic member of Congress, took to social media just before Pearson entered the race to say that the “ambitious young candidate” would not stop him from claiming an 11th term. “We will turn back this challenge in the Democratic Primary and go on to work with the incoming Democratic House Majority to put a stop to this runaway administration,” he wrote. “With a shutdown, an out-of-control, power-grabbing executive, and ICE and the National Guard on the streets of Memphis, this is a time for the experience and institutional knowledge that I bring to the table.” Cohen’s comments came a month after he told Axios it would “be a mistake for somebody to run against me.” The congressman further predicted that “whoever succeeds me will probably ... be somebody whom I choose to endorse.” Pearson, in a separate interview with the New York Times, said he would avoid focusing on age, but Cohen told the paper he remains well-suited to keep serving in Congress. “I’ve been effective from age 26 to age 76, and I’ll be effective at age 77 and at age 78,” the incumbent said. “Because I do one thing, and I do it well, and that’s legislating.” Next year’s Democratic primary, which is set for Aug. 6, will pit two of the most prominent Democrats in the Volunteer State against one another. Cohen, who is Jewish and of Eastern European descent, had a lengthy career in local politics even before he was first elected in 2006 to succeed Rep. Harold Ford Jr., who gave up the majority-Black 9th District to wage an unsuccessful campaign for the U.S. Senate. But while there was immediately talk that the new congressman, who won a nine-way primary with just 31% of the vote, might struggle to turn back a single strong Black candidate in his next race, he turned out to have far more staying power than his critics expected. Cohen secured close to 80% in both 2008 and 2010 in primaries against well-established opponents who tried to make his race (and in the former contest, his religion) into a liability. In later races, the congressman consistently won renomination without much trouble, prevailing 74-18 in his most recent primary. Pearson, by contrast, became one of the most well-known state legislators in the country mere months after he was first elected in a 2023 special election. In late March of that year, Pearson joined with fellow state Reps. Justin Jones and Gloria Johnson to lead visitors in the House gallery in a chant of “gun reform now” following a school shooting in Nashville that left three children and three adults dead. Republicans voted to expel Pearson and Jones, though they narrowly failed to summon the numbers to oust Johnson. Johnson, who was the only white member of the group dubbed the “Tennessee Three,” speculated afterward that the reason her two Black allies received such disparate treatment “might have to do with the color of our skin.” Pearson and Jones, though, quickly returned to the legislature thanks to a state law that allows vacancies to be temporarily filled by the governing body in the home county of the lawmaker whose seat needs to be filled. Special elections were still required to elect permanent replacements, but both incumbents—who instantly became nationally known following their expulsions and raised huge amounts of money—easily won. Johnson, for her part, waged a campaign against Republican Sen. Marsha Blackburn last year but lost 64-34. Pearson will be Cohen’s best-known opponent in well over a decade, but the incumbent argued his long streak of lopsided primary wins shows how tough he’d be to beat. “There’s a movie that I saw yesterday, I really enjoyed it, ‘One Battle After Another,’” Cohen told Axios, “and that’s what having this district has been: One battle after another.” Want to get tremendous bang for your buck? Upgrade your subscription to The Downballot! We keep our overhead to the barest minimum. We have no physical offices—we all work from home. We eschew pricey software and rely on free tools. And all told, around 98% of our expenses are for personnel. Join us today! The Downballot PodcastWhy Virginia Dems think they can win bigAll 100 seats in the Virginia House are up next month, but Democrats think they’re in a strong position to expand their narrow majority. Joining us on this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast to explain why is Del. Dan Helmer, who heads up his caucus’ campaign arm. Helmer points to the pain Virginia’s large federal workforce has experienced at Republican hands—thanks to DOGE and now the shutdown—and notes that Democrats have recruited candidates in every district for the first time in living memory. He also highlights the districts that Democrats are defending as well as the much larger number of GOP-held seats they’re targeting. Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard, meanwhile, recap Tuesday’s primaries in Tennessee’s vacant 7th Congressional District and explore how and why Democrats just might be able to pull off an upset despite the seat’s strong conservative lean. They also dive into the GOP’s Senate primary in Texas, where a new entrant threatens to make life even more miserable for the Republican establishment—and maybe himself, too. The Downballot podcast comes out every Thursday morning everywhere you listen to podcasts. Click here to subscribe and to find a complete transcript! Redistricting RoundupCA RedistrictingRepublicans “have significantly scaled back” their campaign to thwart Proposition 50 “amid increasing pessimism” about their prospects for defeating the November ballot measure that would redraw California’s congressional map, reports Punchbowl’s Ally Mutnick. As poll after poll has shown the amendment passing, Mutnick notes that Democrats have already racked up a considerable advantage in ad spending, pouring in $43 million to just $27 million for opponents. Making matters worse, the heaviest GOP advertiser to date, a group backed by megadonor Charles Munger Jr., has gone dark on TV this week, according to AdImpact. Republicans, says Mutnick, are also pissed at a familiar target of their ire: former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who reportedly promised to raise $100 million for the effort to stop Proposition 50. Instead, a group linked to McCarthy has spent just $7 million so far. IN RedistrictingJD Vance is once again headed to Indiana to convince Republicans to further gerrymander their state’s congressional map—an effort that Politico reports is “on the verge of stalling.” Vance will visit Indianapolis on Friday, the Indiana Capitol Chronicle first reported, though Republican lawmakers rejected his last embassy in August. They were then summoned to the White House, but legislative leaders remained noncommittal after meeting with Donald Trump himself. Last month, Gov. Mike Braun said he’d like to convene a special session of the legislature to take up redistricting—as well as other, potentially more enticing matters in November. However, very few legislators have come out in support of the idea, and many more have expressed their hostility. 3Q Fundraising
SenateFL-SenRepublican Sen. Ashley Moody holds a 44-37 lead over former Brevard County school board member Jennifer Jenkins, who is the only notable Democrat running, in the first poll that’s been released of Florida’s Senate race. This survey, from the GOP firm The Tyson Group for a conservative group called Plymouth Union Public Advocacy, largely focuses on the issue of healthcare tax credits, with a memo arguing Moody would perform better if she supports extending them. LA-SenSt. Tammany Parish Councilwoman Kathy Seiden said Wednesday that she would oppose Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy in what’s already a busy Republican primary. Seiden is the first woman to challenge Cassidy for renomination next year, but she’s unlikely to be the only one. Rep. Julia Letlow is considering taking on the senator, while state Rep. Julie Emerson has said she’ll probably run if Letlow doesn’t. ME-SenMaine Gov. Janet Mills is “preparing as soon as next week” to enter the Democratic primary to face Republican Sen. Susan Collins, Axios reports. The article adds that Mills’ launch will “certainly come” sometime in October. Mills herself said in August that a kickoff might happen in “mid-November.” GovernorsFL-GovState Sen. Jason Pizzo said in May that he’d decided to run for governor of Florida as an independent, but Politico now characterizes him as “non-committal” about his plans. “I don’t know what I’m eating for dinner tonight,” said Pizzo, who left the Democratic Party in the spring. But the lawmaker, who inherited large sums of money from his father, professed that he remains underwhelmed by the current crop of candidates in both parties. “Find me somebody else who I think can do a really, really good job and will do it well and is capable and has the resources, and I will cut them their first check,” he said. “But none of the people so far are it.” ME-GovFormer health care executive Jonathan Bush, who hails from what was once the most prominent family in Republican politics, announced Wednesday that he would enter the packed race for Maine’s open governorship. Bush, who dubbed himself a “disruptor” and “fanatic Maine optimist,” is the nephew of the late President George H.W. Bush and a cousin of both George W. Bush and Jeb Bush. He’s also the brother of TV host Billy Bush, who became nationally infamous in October of 2016 after Donald Trump’s “grab ‘em by the pussy” interview surfaced. Jonathan Bush, as we wrote this summer, said after the tape emerged that he would vote for Libertarian Gary Johnson over Trump and Hillary Clinton, snarking, “I’ve settled on the fact that if you can’t stand the ‘nut’ on the left, and you can’t stand the ‘nut’ on the right, go for the ‘Johnson.’” Last year, he told the Bangor Daily News that Trump was “personally troubled.” Bush has kept his recent criticisms of Trump more low-key, however. “When I’m in northern Maine, I try to point out a couple things to maybe consider about Trump’s imperfection,” he told the paper in April. “When I’m in Southern Maine, I try to point out a couple of things that maybe people in their Trump derangement syndrome can’t see.” NJ-GovPublic Policy Polling (D) for the Democratic Governors Association: Mikie Sherrill (D): 49, Jack Ciattarelli (R): 43. NY-GovRepublican Rep. Elise Stefanik’s PAC has publicized an internal poll showing her trailing Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul by a relatively close 48-43 margin in a potential matchup next year. This survey, conducted by Grey House and first shared with Politico, comes several weeks after a poll from Siena University gave Hochul a dominant 52-27 advantage. Grey House also shows Hochul beating Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado 43-14 in the June Democratic primary, a margin the memo argues is weak. Siena’s most recent poll did not ask about this race. Stefanik has not yet announced her long-awaited campaign to lead New York, though she’s said she’ll make her final decision after the Nov. 4 elections for local offices throughout the state. PA-GovSusquehanna Polling and Research (R): Josh Shapiro (D-inc): 54, Stacy Garrity (R): 36; Shapiro (D-inc): 55, Doug Mastriano (R): 37. (Garrity is running; Mastriano is still considering.) TX-GovDemocratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa says she has a “special announcement” set for Oct. 15. Her invitation went out about two weeks after a Hinojosa advisor told Axios that the lawmaker had decided to enter the March primary for the right to take on Republican Gov. Greg Abbott. VA-GovRepublican Winsome Earle-Sears is getting some much-needed financial support for the final weeks of her campaign as polls continue to show her badly lagging Democrat Abigail Spanberger. Politico says that the Republican Governors Association has donated another $1.5 million to Earle-Sears, which brings its total investment to $5 million. Virginia, unlike most states, has no campaign contribution limits, which allows outside groups to send money directly to campaigns rather than to allied outside groups. But a different group funded by conservative megadonor Dick Uihlein is still opting to run its own commercials rather than fund Earle-Sears. AdImpact relays that the organization, called Restoration of America PAC, has booked $2.4 million statewide. Shortly before all of this new activity, AdImpact had reported that Spanberger’s side enjoyed a massive $4.2 million to $451,000 advantage in ad reservations for the remainder of the campaign. The gap may not be quite as wide as it looks, though: Earle-Sears, unusually, has been buying ad time week-to-week rather than reserving it further ahead of time. In her latest foray, the GOP nominee is trying to tie Spanberger to fellow Democrat Jay Jones and his text message scandal. The commercial repeatedly plays a clip of Spanberger saying, “Let your rage fuel you,” a comment she made last month as she encouraged her supporters to take part in electoral activism. The footage, though, is intercut with Earle-Sears’ narrator saying that Jones, who is the Democratic nominee for attorney general, “wants to put two bullets in a political opponent” and “hopes an opponent’s children die.” Restoration PAC, by contrast, seeks to connect Spanberger to Joe Biden and accuses both of being weak on crime. The group’s opening commercial does not mention Jones. Spanberger, though, believes her opposition to the White House’s current occupant and her support for reproductive rights will resonate more. Her newest commercial utilizes audio of Earle-Sears saying, “I’m supporting what the president is doing,” and “We know abortion is wicked.” HouseFL-19Lee County Sheriff Carmine Marceno remains on the sidelines half a year after first expressing interest in joining the Republican primary for Florida’s open 19th District, but his nascent campaign just released an internal poll showing him far ahead in a field full of defeated politicians from other states. The GOP firm Inquire shows Marceno leading with 34%, while former Illinois state Sen. Jim Oberweis is a distant second with 7%. A 44% plurality says they’re undecided, while the balance is split between eight other candidates. The pollster also asks respondents how they’d vote if Marceno isn’t an option. In that scenario, an even heftier 67% report having no preference. Every actual candidate is stuck in the single digits, with former Rep. Chris Collins of New York in front with just 9%. Marceno’s strength in this survey comes eight months after he acknowledged he was under federal investigation over money laundering allegations, which he claimed without evidence was “politically motivated.” There have been no public developments since then. IL-02Former Democratic Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. announced Wednesday that he would run to reclaim the House seat he resigned in 2012, shortly before pleading guilty to federal corruption charges. Jackson, who is the son and namesake of two-time presidential candidate Jesse Jackson, entered the race for this open seat by praising his father and alluding to the scandal that ended his own career. “On my life’s journey, I’ve borne the burden of self-inflicted pain and suffering,” the candidate, who spent 17 years representing Illinois’ 2nd District, said. “I’ve learned that we cannot be born again from our mother’s womb. We must be born again of a new spirit, a new hope.” Jackson, though, drew a bit more attention to his downfall than he intended. Semafor’s David Weigel flagged that Jackson’s launch video included a link to what was meant to be his campaign website. Instead, the URL redirected to a 2013 Politico story titled, “Jesse Jackson Jr. and the $43K Rolex.” Jackson’s video has since been removed from YouTube. Jackson went on to serve a year and a half in prison after admitting to spending $750,000 in campaign contributions on personal purchases. Fellow Democratic Rep. Robin Kelly, who won the 2013 special election to replace him, is now giving up this solidly blue House seat to run for the Senate. Jackson, whose brother Jonathan Jackson was elected in 2022 to represent the neighboring 1st District, is one of many Chicago-area Democrats competing in the March primary for Kelly’s seat. The field includes four elected officials: Yumeka Brown, who is a commissioner on the regional Metropolitan Water Reclamation District; Cook County Board Commissioner Donna Miller; and state Sens. Robert Peters and Willie Preston. Several other contenders are also hoping to win the plurality they’d need to secure the all-important Democratic nod that would set them up to represent a district that includes far Southeast Chicago, the southern Chicago suburbs, and east-central Illinois. MI-07Education policy professor Josh Cowen dropped out of the Democratic primary for Michigan’s open 7th District on Wednesday and endorsed Bridget Brink’s campaign instead. Brink, a former ambassador to Ukraine, still faces several other intraparty opponents, including retired Navy SEAL Matt Maasdam and climate activist William Lawrence, for the right to take on Republican Rep. Tom Barrett. NY-12New York City Council Member Erik Bottcher filed paperwork with the FEC on Wednesday, though he says he hasn’t yet decided whether he’ll enter the Democratic primary for New York’s open 12th District. “At this moment of great danger for our country, I’m seriously considering running for Congress in NY-12 as Congressman Jerrold Nadler prepares to retire,” Bottcher posted on social media. “As I continue to weigh this critical decision, I look forward to staying in touch and sharing more in the weeks ahead.” TX-10Lobbyist Jessica Karlsruher said Wednesday that she would run to replace retiring Rep. Michael McCaul, a fellow Texas Republican, in the 10th District. Karlsruher, who last month began raising money for a potential campaign for the 21st District that she never appears to have announced, led a group to halt the growth of solar farms until earlier this year. The Washington Post featured Karlsruher and her allies in a 2023 piece titled, “Why Texas, a clean energy powerhouse, is about to hit the brakes.” Attorneys GeneralFL-AGDonald Trump has endorsed Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier, whom Gov. Ron DeSantis appointed earlier this year, in his campaign for a full four-year term. Trump made his move just weeks after Florida Politics reported that the White House was trying to recruit state House Speaker Daniel Perez to oppose Uthmeier, who managed the governor’s disastrous 2024 presidential campaign. But Perez decided not to run, the Miami Herald reports, which helped influence Trump to instead back Uthmeier. MN-AGAttorney Ron Schutz, who is a well-connected figure in Minnesota Republican politics, on Tuesday became the first candidate to launch a campaign against Democratic Attorney General Keith Ellison. The incumbent hasn’t announced whether he’ll seek a third term, though he’s shown no obvious sign he’s looking to leave. Schutz, though, may face intraparty opposition no matter what Ellison does. Fluence Media reported earlier this week that Republicans believe former U.S. Attorney Erica MacDonald is “getting closer to entering.” Republicans last won this office in 1966, though they came close to breaking that long losing streak three years ago. Ellison, whose initial 2018 victory made him the first Muslim elected to statewide office anywhere in the country, won his second term 50.4 to 49.5 in 2022. VA-AGDemocrat Jay Jones has publicized an internal poll showing him narrowly edging out Republican Attorney General Jason Miyares 46-45 after a terrible few days for Jones’ campaign, while Miyares’ backers are showing off a survey of their own that gives the incumbent a small 46-44 advantage. The two polls are the first anyone has released since the news broke Friday about Jones’ 2022 texts joking that then-state House Speaker Todd Gilbert should get “two bullets to the head.” Jones’ survey from Hart Research was in the field Oct. 4-6, while the Republican Attorneys General Association’s internal from Cygnal was conducted Oct. 6-7. RAGA’s poll, which was first released to 7News, says that Jones led 46-43 in an unreleased survey from early September. Hart’s memo, which was shared by the Virginia Scope, acknowledged that Jones’ “solid lead in the past few weeks has been narrowed,” though it didn’t say what his standing had been. Hart, though, argues that the “overall dynamics” of this year’s elections remain good for Virginia Democrats, saying that Jones retains “a strong path to victory.” Ballot MeasuresMO BallotAfter twice rejecting previous attempts, a Missouri judge has approved ballot language summarizing a Republican-backed amendment to repeal abortion rights in the state—though the text does not make clear that that’s what the measure would do. Rather, the new language, which was drafted by Republican Secretary of State Denny Hoskins, says only that the new amendment would “Repeal Article I, section 36, approved in 2024; allow abortions for medical emergencies, fetal anomalies, rape, and incest.” It does not explain that “Article I, section 36” guarantees the right to an abortion, thanks to an amendment that voters passed at the ballot box last year. The full summary also entirely fails to mention that the GOP’s new amendment would ban gender-affirming care for minors. In a statement, the Missouri ACLU said it would appeal the ruling by Judge Daniel Green, as well as his earlier determination that the amendment’s inclusion of both abortion rights and gender-affirming care does not violate the state’s prohibition on amendments that address more than a single subject. ObituariesCarolyn Cheeks KilpatrickFormer Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick, a Michigan Democrat who represented Detroit from 1997 until 2011, died Wednesday at the age of 80. Cheeks Kilpatrick won her office in 1996 after defeating scandal-ridden incumbent Barbara-Rose Collins for renomination. She later went on to become head of the Congressional Black Caucus. Cheeks Kilpatrick would leave Congress the same way she entered it, though, thanks to a massive corruption scandal surrounding her son, former Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick. While the congresswoman wasn’t implicated, she ended up losing the 2010 primary 47-41 against Hansen Clarke. The Associated Press has more on Cheeks Kilpatrick’s long career in its obituary. |
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