 | By Calder McHugh |
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Then-Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump stands on stage with family members, then-Republican vice presidential candidate JD Vance and his wife, Usha Vance, during the 2024 Republican National Convention in Milwaukee on July 18, 2024. | Carolyn Kaster/AP | TUESDAY NIGHT SPECIALS — Not even 100 days into President Donald Trump’s second term, voters will go to the polls on Tuesday for the first big, early test of the national mood in the wake of his aggressive efforts to remake the federal government. The most closely watched races are in Wisconsin, where there is a fierce fight for a state Supreme Court seat that will determine the partisan control of the judicial body, and in Florida, where there’s a congressional race in Florida that has the potential to embarrass Trump in the event of a weak GOP performance. There are three broadly plausible scenarios: First, the GOP wins these races easily, leaving Trump’s teflon coating unscratched and Democrats’ fury at both Trump and their own leadership failing to translate to high turnout. Second is a reversion to the mean; a relative Democratic overperformance in special elections that might boost the party’s lagging spirits but does little to change the national political calculus. Third is a mini-blue wave, a huge overperformance that becomes the first real flashing red light in Trump’s second term. Over the past few days, Trump and his allies seem increasingly concerned about door number three. In Wisconsin, a vaunted Democratic get out the vote operation is going up against the richest man in the world. Elon Musk, who is overseeing the DOGE initiative for Trump, is at the center of the race between conservative Brad Schimel and liberal Susan Crawford; he traveled to the state on Sunday for a rally and to hand out two $1 million checks to voters. The race has become the most expensive judicial contest in history, with over $80 million spent , much of it from Musk and his America PAC. These statewide elections in Wisconsin have become remarkably contentious over the last decade, both for the power that they carry and for the national narrative boost that comes from winning in Wisconsin. The second-most expensive judicial election in American history was the 2023 Wisconsin Supreme Court election; the 2020 and 2019 elections also rank among the nation’s most expensive. As Musk ran onto the stage with a cheesehead on in Green Bay, he admitted Sunday that many of his stunts — including his cash giveaways — are about calling attention to the race. The Democrats are happy to give it to him. Over the weekend, they plastered local newspapers with advertisements of Musk and Schimel, accusing the SpaceX founder of trying to ‘buy’ the race, and depicting his straight arm salute. “On April 1, Wisconsinites get the chance to say what Americans across this country are thinking: ‘Go to hell, Elon,’” DNC Chair Ken Martin told Rolling Stone . As closely as the race has been watched nationally, the Democrats are making Trump’s right hand man their boogeyman. Earlier this month, the state Democratic Party launched a “People v. Musk” ad campaign, claiming “Elon Musk is out of control, and now the power hungry billionaire is unloading millions to buy the Wisconsin Supreme Court.” While Wisconsin has been decided by the thinnest of margins in the last three presidential elections, Democrats have found more success in off-year elections as of late. In the two most recent state Supreme Court elections in 2020 and 2023, the liberal candidate won by over 10 points, powered in large part by huge turnouts in Dane County, the Democratic stronghold centered around Madison. So, a Democratic victory in Wisconsin on Tuesday wouldn’t be altogether surprising. What would count as truly surprising is a Democratic win in Florida’s Daytona Beach-based 6th District, a comfortably Republican seat that Mike Waltz won by over 30 points in November before stepping down to become Trump’s national security advisor. Even a tight race would be a headache for Republicans, a potential sign of problems ahead in the 2026 midterms. Republicans, in fact, are already “pre-butting,” trying to shape a narrative they’re worried could reflect poorly on Trump. “It’s going to be a way underperformance from … what the president won it by in November,” cautioned Florida GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis . “They’re going to try to lay that at the feet of President Donald Trump. That is not a reflection of President Trump. It’s a reflection of the specific candidate running in that race.” The argument has some merit. Another Florida special House election — for the solidly Republican seat formerly occupied by former GOP Rep. Matt Gaetz — looks like it will be little trouble for Republicans to hold. But in the contest for Waltz’s old seat, polls show a considerably tighter race. Republican state Sen. Randy Fine has been outraised by 10 to 1 by Democrat Josh Weil, though ad spending in the district is more pro-Fine thanks to help from super PACs including Musk’s. EVEN DESANTIS DOESN'T LIKE RANDY FINE! ANGER MANAGEMENT? NAME CALLING? THREATS?
Trump found it necessary to wade into the race on X this morning , offering an endorsement and boost to Fine (as well as the Republican running in the Panhandle-based 1st District). The White House is concerned enough about their narrow House majority and potential broad Democratic overperformance that they pulled Rep. Elise Stefanik’s nomination for UN Ambassador, allowing her to return to the House. Her Upstate New York district isn’t especially competitive — Stefanik won her race by almost 25 points in November; her appointment to Trump’s cabinet would have forced a special election for her seat. At the moment, Republicans can’t take any of these races for granted — just last week, a Democrat won a Pennsylvania state Senate special election in a district that Trump won by over 15 points last year. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at cmchugh@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @calder_mchugh .
| | | | ****ANTI-SCIENTISTS ARE IN CHARGE OF HEALTH!**** RFK JR: Dr. Peter Marks, the top vaccine official at the Department of Health and Human Services, has resigned in a dramatic rebuke of agency head Bob Kennedy. “Truth and transparency are not desired by the Secretary,” Dr. Marks wrote in his resignation letter. “But rather he wishes subservient confirmation of his misinformation and lies.”
— New FDA commissioner agreed to oust top vaccine regulator after private swearing-in: Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Marty Makary signed off on the ouster of top vaccine official Peter Marks shortly after being quietly sworn in as the agency’s new leader late last week, four people familiar with the matter told POLITICO. The forced removal was Makary’s first major act as commissioner and sent a powerful signal to a stunned Washington that was already anxious about the role vaccine skepticism would play under Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s Health and Human Services Department. Makary and Kennedy had previously agreed to push out Marks, who led the FDA’s vaccine division for more than eight years, as part of a broader overhaul of HHS leadership. ****IT'S CALLED CENSORSHIP!**** BLEACH BLOND KAROLINE LEAVITT IS BRAIN DEAD & EACH OF HER PUBLIC COMMENTS CONFIRM IT! — WHCA rejects Trump administration’s plan to take over briefing room seating chart: The White House Correspondents’ Association pushed back against the White House’s plans to exert control over the briefing room seating assignments for journalists today. In an email to members, the association — which is made up of an independent group of journalists covering the Trump administration — said it was aware of the reported efforts from the White House to take over the briefing room’s organization chart. The seating has long been set by WHCA. excerpts: “The reason the White House wants control of the briefing room is the same reason they took control of the pool: to exert pressure on journalists over coverage they disagree with,” the board wrote. “This was explicit with The Associated Press, where the president and his staff plainly said their removal from covering presidential events was punishment for their style guide.” The board said that the notion of White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt presiding over WHCA negotiating access with the administration is “ridiculous.” “The White House picked this fight and continues to do so,” the board continued. “Our members want to cover the administration without fear or favor, and stand ready to question government officials from any corner of the Brady Briefing Room.”
***CORRUPT PAM BONDI SUPPORTING MAGA GOP DISENFRANCHISING BLACK VOTERS! IT'S CALLED RACISM! LIES & FALSE CLAIMS!***** — Bondi instructs Justice Department to dismiss Biden-era legal challenge to Georgia election law: Attorney General Pam Bondi directed the Department of Justice to dismiss a lawsuit today, challenging a Republican-backed Georgia election law that the DOJ previously alleged intentionally suppressed Black voters. The lawsuit — filed under former President Joe Biden in June 2021 — alleged the law would disproportionately hinder Black voters’ access to the polls. But Bondi framed the case as politically motivated, saying it misrepresented the law’s effects. “Contrary to the Biden Administration’s false claims of suppression, Black voter turnout actually increased under SB 202,” Bondi said in a press release for the announcement. “Georgians deserve secure elections, not fabricated claims of false voter suppression meant to divide us.”
***US SOLDIERS IN LITHUANIA THAT TRUMP IGNORED!**** — Bodies of 3 out of 4 missing U.S. Army soldiers recovered from swamp in Lithuania: Officials have recovered the bodies of three of the four U.S. soldiers who went missing in Lithuania last week after their 63-ton armored vehicle was recovered from a peat bog this morning , according to a report from NBC News. Search and rescue operations continue for the fourth soldier. Military officials said the group was on a training mission to “repair and tow an immobilized tactical vehicle” before becoming submerged: “The identities of the soldiers, who were all from the 1st Brigade Combat Team, 3rd Infantry Division, are being withheld pending family notification.”
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French far-right leader Marine Le Pen leaves the National Rally headquarters in Paris after a French court convicted her of embezzlement and barred her from seeking public office for five years on March 31, 2025. | Thomas Padilla/AP | GUILTY — Marine Le Pen’s plans to run for the French presidency in 2027 were dealt a likely fatal blow today after she was found guilty of embezzling European Parliament funds and deemed ineligible to stand in elections for the next five years . Given surging support for her far-right National Rally party, 2027 had widely been seen as a potential breakthrough moment for her populist anti-migration agenda, and several polls put her as a strong contender to succeed Emmanuel Macron in the Elysée Palace. The decision would appear to open the door for Jordan Bardella, the National Rally president and Le Pen’s heir-apparent, to become the flag-bearer for the far right and run for the presidency. Le Pen and 24 other co-defendants were accused of illicitly siphoning European Parliament funds to pay for party employees who seldom or never dealt with affairs in Brussels or Strasbourg. The court estimated that the accused had over 12 years embezzled more than €4 million, €474,000 of which Le Pen was held personally responsible for as an MEP. TOUGH TALK — Germany’s incoming government says it will press the European Union to finally add some bite to its bark over misbehaving countries ― in a thinly veiled reference to Viktor Orbán’s Hungary. The conservatives of incoming chancellor Friedrich Merz and their likely center-left coalition partner, the Social Democratic Party (SPD), have agreed to demand the bloc withhold funds and suspend voting rights from countries that violate key principles such as the rule of law, according to a draft coalition agreement seen by POLITICO. While Hungary wasn’t mentioned by name, the draft agreement is clearly referring to the EU’s worst offender, which for years has been accused of taking a wrecking ball to democratic norms, curtailing the freedom of the press and restricting the independence of judges. The German parties ― Merz’s victors and the SPD who led the last government ― are currently negotiating to form a coalition and need to agree on underlying principles before taking office. An agreement to pressure the EU to go after countries like Hungary forms part of a series of provisional deals covering issues as diverse as migration policy, the phaseout of coal and welfare spending. ***PUTIN IS LOSING WITHOUT TRUMP SUPPORT! IS THAT WHY TRUMP'S BROKE - PAYING BACK RUSSIAN DEBT? REMOVED RUSSIAN SANCTIONS! **** HEAD TO THE FRONT — Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered another 160,000 Russian citizens be called up to serve in the military , Russian news agency Interfax reported today. Russia drafts men aged 18 to 30 years old. The new order, starting April 1 and to be completed by July 15, comes amid the ongoing negotiations for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, brokered by the United States. ***SUPPORT ZELENSKY & UKRAINE! TRUMP IS BETRAYING UKRAINE FOR PUTIN BECAUSE OF HIS DEBT TO RUSSIA! **** Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy claims Russia is dragging out the peace process as it is preparing a massive new offensive to grab more Ukrainian land before actual peace talks. “According to our intelligence, Russia is preparing for new offensives in Sumy, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia regions,” Zelenskyy said last week.
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| | Cut through policy complexity and turn intelligence into action with POLITICO’s Policy Intelligence Assistant—a new suite of tools designed to save you time and demonstrate your impact more easily than ever—available only to Pro subscribers. Save hours, uncover critical insights instantly, and stay ahead of the next big shift. Power your strategy today— learn more . | | | | | | | ***CUTS IN USAID & THE ANTI-VAX WILL IMPACT PROGRESS! WORTH READING IN ITS ENTIRETY! THIS IMPACTS THE ECONOMIC SUCCESS OF NATIONS! THANK MARCO RUBIO ET AL FOR SHORT-SIGHTED CUTS!*** MAKE IT TO FIVE — Progress is slowing in the fight against child mortality. While the number of child deaths have dropped by more than half since 2000, 4.8 million children around the globe died before their fifth birthday in 2023. That’s according to two new reports from the United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation. Decades of foreign aid investment, improved care and sanitation, and increased access to vaccines have helped millions of children live longer , reports Bryan Walsh from Vox. “If a child can make it to their fifth birthday, it significantly increases their chance of living a full life,” says Walsh. However, the world is lagging behind the UN’s new goal to virtually end child mortality by 2030.
excerpt: - Child mortality is one of the most important indicators of a country’s development. As the chart above shows, rich nations like the UK and the US first made progress in keeping children alive, but more recently poorer nations like India have made tremendous strides. (Child mortality dropped an astounding 81 percent between 1980 and today in India.)
- The reduction in child mortality is perhaps the best example of the international community setting a goal and making major progress toward it. In 2000, the UN aimed to reduce child mortality to two-thirds below 1990 levels by 2015. While we didn’t quite make it by then, we’re almost there now. Global health is a bright spot compared to the struggles in making progress on climate change.
- We shouldn’t need economic motivations to want to reduce child deaths, but reduced childhood mortality is also associated with better economic performance. Family sizes fall to a more manageable level in poor countries, and more future workers survive to a productive age.
There is no secret formula to reducing child mortality. Improved prenatal, childbirth, and postnatal care all keep children alive in their vulnerable first months. Better sanitation and nutrition prevent early deaths from waterborne illnesses and malnutrition. Vaccines have, of course, saved untold millions of children from once common killers like measles, diphtheria and polio. (Let me say this again louder for those in the back row, especially if any of you happen to currently be running the Department of Health and Human Services: VACCINES!) Despite this tremendous success, 4.8 million children — approximately the population of Phoenix — still die before their fifth birthday, which is exactly 4.8 million too many. The world would have to reduce child mortality by an additional 30 percent or so to meet the new UN goal of essentially ending preventable child deaths 2030. Unfortunately, we’re not on that trajectory. While the number of child deaths is still declining, progress has been slowing down, and that was before the massive cuts in foreign aid in the US and other countries. The highest levels of child mortality today are found in extremely poor sub-Saharan African nations like Chad and Mali where aid will be the difference between life and death.
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On this date in 1990: An anti-poll tax demonstration in Trafalgar Square, London turns violent as protesters throw traffic cones and other objects at police. | AP | Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here . | |
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